In Syria on Friday, several hundred soldiers were killed in one day. Data on the number of deaths vary. According to some, more than 600 Russian soldiers were killed (military contractors allegedly from PMCs), according to others, more than 200. To date, it has been possible to collect bit by bit quite a lot of information about the events and the consequences of direct fire contact between the Russian military and the American army. There are no casualties among the coalition forces, according to the latest data as a result of the conflict.
1. What was the point of attacking the positions of the Kurds in the Euphrates region?
Most likely, the main target of the attack by the mixed Russian-Assad units was the oil-bearing region in the south-west of Syria, in which Russia has long shown interest. The fact is that despite the fact that Assad and the Kremlin, together with Iran, control approximately 40-50% of the territory of Syria, they have no economic opportunity to compensate for the costs of the war, and most importantly, there are no resources to restore the completely destroyed territory that they control. Thus, the Kremlin came up with the idea to occupy the oil-bearing areas 80 kilometers from Deir ez-Zor, where Rosneft and Gazprom could develop their activities in the future. However, just a few days before the advance of the Russian military in this area, the territory was taken under control by the Syrian opposition, which is part of the antiterrorist coalition with the US military. In the order of the forces of the democratic Syrian opposition were also American military advisers, including at the forefront.
Nevertheless, the Kremlin nevertheless decided to “probe the area” and, in the event of weak opposition, seize the territory. The operation was prepared defiantly at first, and after the bridge over the Euphrates, built by the Russian military, was also defiantly destroyed, the accumulation of large forces for the offensive began.
2. How the operation of Russian troops in Syria developed.
General Hassan, commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the region, points to a spot on a map east of the city of Deir ez-Zor, 80 kilometers southeast of here, where he says tanks and artillery supporting the regime President Bashar al-Assad, began on Wednesday night moving towards the headquarters occupied by his forces and advisers from the US Special Operations Forces (Hassan, like some other high-ranking Kurdish commanders, does not give his full name).
According to Hasan, he received intelligence information about the preparation of the offensive from the forces supporting the regime. At 21:30 on Wednesday, about half an hour before the start of the offensive, he called a Russian liaison officer in Deir ez-Zor, with whom he is in contact, in the hope that he could stop the operation.
“We said that a certain movement was taking place and that we would not want to attack the participants in these actions. They (the Russians) did not accept our offer, they denied everything and said that nothing was happening,” Hasan said through an interpreter.
He spoke to several correspondents who traveled here on Thursday with Major General James Jarrard, who oversees US special operations forces in Syria and Iraq.
American officers made a similar effort to avoid collisions. As the Pentagon said in a statement Thursday, “coalition officials have been in constant contact with their Russian counterparts before, during and after” the offensive. "The Russian military has assured the coalition representatives that they will not attack nearby coalition forces," the statement said.
The attack began around 10 p.m., and pro-regime formations began advancing under cover of tank and artillery shells, which exploded about 450 meters from positions held by Syrian Democratic Forces and American soldiers, Hasan said.
In total, one battalion-tactical group, which included more than 10 tanks and about three dozen units of other armored vehicles, was supposedly initially involved in the attack. After the US military withdrew from the forward positions, the Russians decided to develop the offensive and bring into action a second - a reserve battalion tactical group, the exact number of which is unknown.
The U.S. Air Force responded to this threat with devastating strikes, initially with precision-guided artillery and possibly, judging by eyewitness accounts, HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System - pron. Hymars) - an American high-mobility operational-tactical missile and artillery system. These are missiles that can fly up to 200 km in five minutes and destroy up to 50 targets in one salvo with precision-guided munitions. Most likely, it was with the help of this system that Russian artillery cover batteries were destroyed, and the drones were used only for target designation of fire. After the destruction of enemy artillery, as well as the operational orders of the Russians and Assadites, a blow was struck on the rear units, which were actually destroyed on the march by the second BTG.
At the same time, the electronic warfare system worked, completely suppressing communications in operational orders, which explains that it was possible to obtain a transcript of the negotiations of the rear groups. The air was controlled by probably two pairs (as usual) of F22 Raptor, tracking the possible appearance of Russian aircraft in a given area.
In the midst of this carnage, Hasan said that a Russian liaison officer called him again and asked him to stop fighting for a while in order to take away the dead and wounded - in the course of the offensive, which he denied. The Kurdish commander saw this as treachery. “We don’t trust the Russians anymore,” Hassan said. And when one of the reporters noted the paradox of the situation - a Russian officer first denied the attack, and then asked for a ceasefire - Hasan remarked: "It's funny that a superpower does not know what its forces are doing on the ground."
Approximately two hours after the counterattacks, 80% of all the forces of the Russians and Assadites were destroyed. Now the “flea hunt” has begun - using the “counter-guerrilla” AC130 and two pairs of attack helicopters, the Americans, under the cover of F22, have finally cleared the enemy offensive area.
How this happens can be seen in the video below:
The total losses of the Russian Federation and Assad amounted to 90% of all equipment and 70-80% of manpower. The US military pulled out of the fight apparently unscathed. The whole operation lasted about six hours.
3. Why do data on the losses of Russians differ?
The main reason is the complete secrecy of information from the beginning of the operation by the Russian army to its completion. In addition, there were two battalion-tactical groups. Probably in the first (on the line of contact) 217 Russians (mercenaries from PMCs) died. The second group was broken up on the march (at least three companies of Russians). Hence the difference in the estimate - from 217 to 640 Russian soldiers. It must be said that in reality, the coalition forces completely destroyed not only the forward grouping, but also the artillery support group, as well as the rear grouping, including the operational headquarters that commanded the offensive.
4. What is Wagner PMC and why do they write that only they died?
PMC "Wagner" is a camouflage name for the most combat-ready Russian units in Syria, the so-called "Ihtamnets". These are units of assault special forces, which had previously actively fought in Ukraine, and now in Syria. Before the offensive, the Russian military from these units hand over their passports, military tickets, change into the uniform of Assad's troops. In fact, they are all professional Russian military contractors. The coalition is well aware of this, and monitors their movement constantly.
5. What are the consequences of this operation for the Kremlin and the coalition?
It must be said that the complete destruction of the Russian military group by the American forces in Syria in the first hours caused a shock both in the headquarters of the Russian troops in Syria and in the Kremlin later. It was unexpected not only that the Americans responded to the Kremlin's challenge in the oil-bearing region of Syria, but also the power with which they responded. It is estimated that Russian units destroyed in southern Syria accounted for about 20% of all Russian assault forces. They were destroyed in a few hours. A few hours later, the American side announced from official sources that it had destroyed Assad's forces during their offensive against coalition positions. They also stated that they knew nothing about any "Russian ichtamnets" in the area. A day later, about 150 wounded Russians were delivered to Russia on two planes. Some of the wounded were left on the territory of Russian air bases in Syria.
The Kremlin refrained from a coherent response, expressing only "deep concern" about the current situation in southern Syria. Most likely, in the near future, Russia will refrain from conducting any operations in the direction of the coalition troops, having learned a cruel lesson. According to experts, in the event of a conflict with the coalition, Russia could lose all its bases in Syria within three days.
A day after the events in the Deir ez-Zor region, an active operation of the Israeli army began in the Damascus region. Having found an Iranian-made drone in its airspace, the Israeli army shot it down, and then launched a massive strike on military installations of Hezbollah and Assad forces. Then, after the loss of one of its aircraft (presumably shot down by the S-300 air defense system), Israel destroyed eight air defense batteries simultaneously in the Damascus region with a massive strike.
Conclusions.
It is likely that in the near future military operations in Syria will intensify mainly in the central regions. The situation around the Russian military group will deteriorate significantly in the coming months, which, if clear agreements are not reached, could lead to its evacuation in the middle or end of the year, as well as the annihilation of the Assad regime later.
The US Army has proven its overwhelming superiority in this theater of operations. Starting from technical superiority and ending with the methods of combat and command and control. The Russian troops prepared and carried out a completely mediocre and senseless operation, which was revealed at the planning stage. In addition, the Russian army is not capable of conducting night offensive operations - the troops of Assadites and Russians were actually shot as if in a shooting range, and with a complete loss of orientation by the latter.
Here is a transcript of the radio exchange about this. The Russian media are silent on this matter, since the President of the Russian Federation has already officially announced that a final victory has been won in Syria and therefore there should not be any dead.
The information is taken from the WarGonzo Telegram channel run by war correspondent Semyon Pegov…
Voice 1: "... In short, this is the fuck @ th time @ fucked ours, in short. In one company nah @ th 200 people nah @ th two hundredth immediately, in another 10 people and I don’t know about the third, but they also disheveled very much in general, in short, three companies suffered, so they beat the Pindos, first they covered with artillery nah @ th epyt and then they raised nah @ th 4 turntables and launched into the carousel shorter from large-caliber machine guns nah @ d, in short of all x @ yachili, ours except machine guns nah @ d didn’t have anything at all, well, not to mention there some kind of MANPADS and so on , in short, they disheveled it there, well, they made hell there and the Pindos specifically and clearly knew what we were going to, the Russians, here we were going to squeeze the plant, and they were sitting at this plant in short, we f @ zdy got finally hard nah @ th right now the boys called me back nah @ th there they sit thumping shorter, a lot of very nah @ th bl @ t missing well, it’s shorter n @ dets finally there bl @ t is another humiliation bl @ t and well, in short with us nah @ th nuniktoobshche nah @ I don’t consider how the devils were treated at all, I think that ours will now turn on the back bl @ t nah @ d our government and n no one will do anything, and no one will destroy anyone. For this, nah @ th, we have such losses here!
Voice 2: “Brother, look. There are 177 killed - only the 5th company. 2-ku practically did not hook. In short, the entire 5 was destroyed, they were rolled out there by aviation, turntables, artillery, and the Kurds and the Americans flooded them, the boys simply had no chance, almost all of the 5 lay down. Here are the remnants of heavy ones, now "Tulip" will come at night today, then we will meet already. Come on, get in touch. Viktorovich, too, in my opinion, if found, is also minus.
Voice 3: “In short, the guy just called back, they lined up in a column, they did not reach these three hundred meters, damn it, seven hundred, he says, to the positions, one platoon went forward, and these, the column, stood. They did not reach shorter than three hundred meters. Those American flags were hoisted and the artillery started to crackle hard at them, and then the turntables flew up and started to fuck everyone, so they ran ... Now the guy called back - a total of 215 "two hundredths", sort of like that, in short, they rolled it out just hard ... Designated themselves ... What did our people hope for? Like they fuck themselves? Are they scared? X@y knows… In short, such a x@ynya… They can’t identify anyone at all, the people there don’t give a damn. They fucked up a standing column just with artillery, the infantry didn’t even advance, they just fucked with artillery, and that’s all fucked up. ”
journalistSaturday, September 30 marks two years since Russia entered the war in Syria. Since then, the Russian army has been drawn deeper and deeper into this war, which, according to official data alone, claimed the lives of 38 Russian soldiers. However, the real losses are likely to be much greater. The situation allows us to assert that the Russian Federation has got involved in its own Vietnam, leaving which will be much more difficult than entering.
Two years ago, on September 30, 2015, Russia entered the Syrian war on the side of the government forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. By the time of the Russian intervention, the Assad regime was losing the civil war in its country, pressed by ISIS militants and the Syrian opposition militias. The Russian Federation deployed an air wing to Syria, which began to support Assad's troops from the air. According to official data, Russian aircraft bombed ISIS targets, but the Syrian opposition stated that they were not occupied by ISIS militants.
Russian President Vladimir Putin explained his participation in the Syrian events by the need to fight terrorism on the side of the international coalition. In reality, one of the reasons was the desire of the Russian side to divert the attention of the world community from the problem of Donbass and the desire to “exchange” Syria for Crimea and Donbass, having achieved the lifting of sanctions for the invasion of Ukraine.
At first, Russia's participation in Syria was limited only to an aviation group, the leadership of the Russian Federation assured that it was not going to get involved in ground battles. The Russian army began to suffer losses almost immediately. So, on October 24, 2015, 19-year-old Russian contract soldier Vadim Kostenko died at the Khmeimim airbase, where Russian aviation is based. Exactly a month after this event, Turkish Air Force fighters shot down a Russian Su-24M front-line bomber that had flown into Turkey. The crew of two pilots ejected, but the bomber commander, 45-year-old Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Peshkov, died as a result of fire from the ground.
Very soon it became clear that the Russian leadership, to put it mildly, was deceiving its citizens when they said that they would not get involved in ground combat operations. The presence of Russian “ground specialists” has become increasingly clear and undeniable since the sudden retreat from Palmyra last December, when ISIS militants seized equipment and belongings belonging to members of the Russian army’s ground forces.
In recent days, in connection with an attempt to de-blockade the Syrian city of Deir ez-Zor, which the Syrian and Russian military are trying to carry out, reports of losses in the ranks of the Russian army have been coming more and more often. The loudest event was that at one time he commanded the so-called first "army corps" of the illegal "DPR", and in Syria he was the commander of the 5th army corps of the Syrian army (another evidence of the active participation of Russian "land" in the Syrian events).
According to official information, Asapov died in a mortar attack in Deir ez-Zor, but Russian blogger Anatoly Nesmiyan (el-murid), who closely follows events in the Middle East, believes that the Russian Ministry of Defense hid the true information about the place and time of Asapov's death. “I provided a link to the regional press from Bratsk, which reported on the funeral of a local resident, Sergeant Tarasyuk. He died on September 16th. His sister said that a general and a colonel died with him. There are many generals in Russia, but it is logical to assume that there are still not so many to die in such numbers in one place. It is quite possible that it was about General Asapov. But then the date of his death is different, perhaps the place and circumstances are also different. The sister of the deceased sergeant reported that he and the officers were ambushed while moving ... The name of the colonel, who was ambushed along with Tarasyuk and (presumably) Asapov, is also known: Rustem Abzalov. In other words, the Ministry of Defense, having reported the death of the general, hid information on two more dead, ”Nesmiyan said.
It turns out that by hiding the participation of the Russian military in ground operations in Syria, the Russian leadership is also hiding the true information about the losses. According to the Russian publication Kommersant, the Russian Federation officially recognized the death of 38 people in Syria. However, if you count the dead by name, it turns out about 50 people. Therefore, it is absolutely possible that the real losses of the RF Armed Forces in Syria are even higher.
By invading Ukraine and getting involved in the Syrian events, Russia received its Afghanistan and Vietnam at the same time.
This behavior is due to very simple reasons. Russia got involved in the war in Syria to divert attention from its actions in the Crimea and Donbass and “buy” the lifting of sanctions. This goal was not achieved, but now it will not be possible to simply leave the Middle East without “losing face”. The same applies to the Donbass. However, it is impossible to recognize one’s full participation in both wars, as well as to reveal complete information about the losses, since this may cause undesirable questions in society on the eve of the 2018 presidential election. After all, then it will be necessary to explain what are the goals of both wars and the reasons why Russian servicemen die in them. By invading Ukraine and getting involved in the Syrian events, Russia received its Afghanistan and Vietnam at the same time.
Denis Popovich, especially for "Word and Deed"
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07.09.2015 - 11:50
The civil war in Syria almost from the very beginning ceased to be an internal affair of one country.
Both the countries of the region and larger players, such as the United States, actively intervened in the conflict. These countries supplied weapons to militants fighting against the Syrian authorities, and also provided training in camps in Jordan. Against the background of the anti-Assad campaign and the actual support of the Islamist militants from the West, Russia was repeatedly accused of supporting the ruling regime in Syria.
And if at first the accusations concerned only the supply of weapons, then in the summer-autumn of 2015 there were reports of the presence of the Russian military in the country and direct participation in hostilities. Ruposters figured out whether the Syrian conflict is really continuing with the use of modern Russian weapons with the participation of our specialists. Cargo and Tartus
The first evidence that Russia is helping Assad's troops with weapons and ammunition appeared in mid-2011. Then the large landing ship (LDS) "Nikolai Filchenkov" began to make regular flights to the port of Tartus, where the only Russian stronghold for servicing naval ships in the far abroad is currently located.
There are no exact statistics on voyages for 2011 and 2012, but it is known that in the first half of 2013, six ships of the Black Sea and Baltic Fleets made 11 voyages. A year later, the number of flights reached 23, and during the same period in 2015, our ships passed through the Bosphorus 18 times already. Cargo on the deck was not noticed, since the design of the ships provides for the transportation of goods in the hold.
Syrian Cossacks
Information about Russian citizens who fought in Syria on the side of Assad appeared in the fall of 2013, when 267 people went to the Middle East, acting on behalf of the Slavonic Corps company registered in Hong Kong. This group was supposed to protect the oil fields in the Deir az-Zor area - in the east of the country. The Russians received weapons and vehicles in Latakia, on the Mediterranean coast of Syria.
To reach their destination, they had to travel through the entire country, where a civil war was already raging. Halfway, in the area of the city of es-Sukhna, they encountered many times superior forces of militants. After many hours of fighting, during which six members of the Slavonic Corps were injured, they had to retreat. As a result, they all first returned to Latakia, and then flew home on two charters.
Thus, the Russians really participated in the hostilities in Syria. But it is important to understand that Slavonic Corps cannot be considered regular military personnel and it is impossible to talk about direct Russian intervention in the conflict in 2013.
Russian weapons and equipment in Syria
As already mentioned, it is almost impossible to accurately determine the nature of Russian cargo transported to Tartus. But there are pictures that demonstrate the presence of modern Russian weapons in the Syrian army. Although such evidence has surfaced before, let's focus on what has been recorded over the past year and a half.
In February 2014, for the first time in Syria, Smerch installations were spotted, which were not in service with the Syrian army at the time the conflict began.
Installation of BM-30 "Smerch" in Syria
In October of the same year, the UR-77 demining unit hit the camera lens.
UR-77 on footage from Syria
In addition to heavy weapons, it is known about the supply of small arms to the army of the Syrian Arab Republic (SAA). In the spring of 2013, a request was sent to Rosoboronexport for the supply of various light weapons to Syria. At that time, the Syrian side planned to purchase 20,000 AK-74Ms, 400 Kord machine guns, PKS machine guns, grenade launchers, etc.
The document mentions 12.7mm sniper rifles. Obviously, we are talking about KSVK and OSV-96 sniper rifles, which can be used both to destroy unarmored vehicles and to destroy enemy manpower at a distance of up to 1300 m. Many of these weapons were brought to Syria for the first time during the conflict.
Sniper rifle OSV-96
Machine gun "Pecheneg" on footage from Syria
Facility OSNAZ GRU
They started talking about Russian specialists in Syria in October 2014. The reason was a video from Mount Tal al-Hara in the province of Deraa, not far from the border with Israel. Two videos show radar installations, as well as stands in the premises with inscriptions in Russian and Arabic.
Object from inside
The emblems indicate the belonging of the OSNAZ object to the GRU of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, as well as its relation to the Syrian intelligence agency. Theoretically, this object could be used to intercept terrorist communications. However, the militants who captured the Tal al-Hara mountain did not provide any evidence that the base functioned in wartime, although they had every opportunity to do so.
Drones
On July 21, 2015, the media unit of the Syrian Jabhat al-Nusra group published photos of two downed drones. They turned out to be products of the Russian military-industrial complex Orlan-10 and Eleron-3SV, which are designed to conduct reconnaissance and adjust artillery fire.
"Orlan-10"
Eleron-3SV
Both surveillance equipment were shot down in the province of Idlib in northwestern Syria. The sudden appearance of two new models of drones, in addition to the Iranian-made models already in service, led some observers to believe that Russian specialists could arrive in Syria along with the drones, who could both train the Syrians in handling equipment and independently control the drones. If no one disputes the presence of Russian drones, then reliable information about their maintenance has not appeared.
Aviation
On August 23, Turkish media reported that Russia had deployed several MiG-31E aircraft to Syria. The news sparked speculation that Russia was launching its own operation against the Islamic State group. Allegedly, the planes are based at a base in the suburbs of Damascus, from where it is very close to the ISIS positions in Homs province.
MiG-31 in Russian service
Several facts contradict this version. Firstly, the MiG-31E is an interceptor aircraft designed to operate in the country's air defense system, and not to destroy ground targets.
Secondly, the contract for the supply of eight aircraft of this type was signed back in 2007.
On September 2, Jabhat al-Nusra-linked accounts posted several photos captioned as "Russian planes in the skies over Idlib." The militants independently determined the types of aircraft: Su-34, Su-27 and MiG-29. In the pictures, the Russian-made drone "Pchela-1T" may also be lit up.
Presumably MiG-29
Presumably Su-27
And if in two pictures it is possible, despite the poor quality, to consider the silhouettes of the Su-27 and MiG-29, then the third photo raises questions.
Allegedly Su-34
It is alleged that it depicts a Su-34 fighter-bomber, which is not in service with the Syrian Air Force. But the picture is of such poor quality that it does not allow you to make out the details. This leaves room for manipulation and inconsistency. And most importantly, the plane is turned in profile, which makes it impossible to see the main difference between the Su-34, which is built on the basis of the Su-27 airframe - the front horizontal tail console. Therefore, it can be the same Su-27, only in profile.
Someone may ask the question: “But here, the MiG-29 and Su-27, why not Russian aircraft?” The answer is no.
Both the MiG-29 and the Su-27 have long been in service with the Syrian Air Force. This is first. And secondly, aircraft of this type are not the best choice for attacking ground targets. Both machines are fighters, the main task of which is to gain air supremacy.
There is no doubt that Russian specialists, if necessary, would have chosen more suitable means for this, if necessary, to strike at concentrations of militants in the province of Idlib from the air.
But why then were the Su-27 and MiG-29 used by the Syrians to "work" on the ground? The answer lies in the insufficient resources of the SAA, which use any means to support their ground forces from the air. Everything is used, including barrel bombs dropped from helicopters. Therefore, the Su-27 and MiG-29 are used by Assad's troops in an unusual role for them as an attack aircraft. There were even cases when militants were fired upon with a regular MiG-29 aircraft gun.
Drone "Bee-1T" in the sky over Idlib
The last photo is said to be of a Pchela-1T drone. And here there is no evidence that the apparatus belonged to the Russian military. Despite the fact that there is no publicly available data on the supply of UAVs of this type to Syria, there is information that the UAV was, in principle, supplied abroad. This is a rather old model, which was adopted by the Soviet army back in the 80s. Finally, indirect information confirms the presence of a drone of this type on the Syrian side. In 2013, such a vehicle was shot down over Israeli territory.
"Nikolai Filchenkov" and soldiers
Photo taken by one of the Marines from the Nikolai Filchenkov in the port of Tartus.
A comparison of two facts - the passage of military vehicles with cargo on board to Tartus and the appearance of Russian marines there - led some bloggers-"investigators" to the conclusion that Russia allegedly launched a ground operation in Syria, and not against anyone, but against " moderate" democratic rebels.
Red marks the "corner of Russia" in the port of Tartus
About everything in order. The logistical support point (not a naval base) in Tartus was inherited by the Russian Federation from the USSR. What it is: it is one pier along with a couple of warehouses for military equipment. Even before the civil war in Syria, the facility was not relatively large and was serviced by a staff of only four people.
After the outbreak of hostilities, officials made statements about the imminent evacuation of personnel and the closure of the facility. However, he continued to serve the ships that delivered goods there, including humanitarian aid.
Photo of a Russian sailor from Tartus, 04/13/2014
Photo of Russian sailors in the port of Tartus, 10/27/2014
This kind of information would hardly have become a sensation if only sailors appeared in the photo. The media, especially Western ones, have repeatedly said that Russia supplies weapons to Syria through the port of Tartus. However, the marines of the Russian Federation “lit up” in the photo.
For people who know this is unlikely to be a "discovery". According to the regulations, each warship must have a detachment of marines, which performs security functions. If the BDK "Nikolai Filchenkov" went without an escort of the marines, there would be more questions for the command than now.
Apparently, upon arrival at the port, the Marines go ashore, waiting for the ship to be unloaded and sent back to Sevastopol. At this time, some visit the city park of Tartus and openly take pictures with the Syrian military personnel who serve there.
Russian marine in the city park of Tartus, 05/24/2015
Russian sailors with the Syrian military, 04/15/2015
Russian soldier on duty. Tartus, 04/10/2015
Absolutely all the photos found in the VKontakte profiles of Russian servicemen were taken in Tartus. The entire surrounding area is under the control of Bashar al-Assad's forces, and the nearest line of contact with the militants is tens of kilometers from the coast.
Map of confrontation in areas off the coast. Red marks the territory controlled by Assad's troops.
For the first time, photographs of Russian marines from Tartus appeared on VKontakte back in the winter of last year.
Russian Marine in Latakia, 02/17/2014
Russian servicemen in the port of Tartus, 10/23/2014
Over the past six months, even the media units of the Syrian militants, traditionally inclined to exaggerate the facts, have never mentioned any participation of Russian soldiers in the clashes.
The cult of geolocation
Of course, someone can object by providing photographs of “Russian soldiers” posted on VKontakte with a geotag in the province of Homs, where the line of contact of the Syrian army runs with both the Islamic State and other Islamist groups.
A group in combat gear in front of a landscape that could pass for Syria
In the barracks
However, take a closer look at the camouflage - it is used exclusively in the army of Kazakhstan. It is strange that no one has yet accused Kazakhstan of invading Syria. But there is another interesting detail. In the profile from which this photo was uploaded to the Web, there is another one - with a geotag in Lebanon.
It turns out that a soldier of the army of Kazakhstan managed to fight first in Lebanon, and then moved to Syria? Most likely, he simply edited the geotag on the photo and posted the picture on the Web.
Some media did not disdain even outright fakes to prove "Russian aggression" in Syria. For example, Ukrainian bloggers discovered a photograph by geolocation search, the authorship of which was immediately attributed to the person who published it. They say this "Russian soldier" disguised himself as an IS militant, which means he participated in battles with this group.
The same photo
The case of this image shows that it is a good idea to use Google's tools to determine the authenticity of a photo to begin with. The search engine turns up a large number of copies of this photo, and a deeper study of the issue indicates that it was taken about two years ago.
Some of the pictures were apparently used in "investigations" to add some humor to the "revelations".
Photo a la Al-Qaeda with false geolocation
A photo whose geolocation points to an entire Syrian province instead of a specific point on the map. Another example of false geolocation
The same APC
Much more weighty proof of the participation of "Russian troops" in the hostilities in Syria was a video published on August 23 from the province of Latakia. It shows the BTR-82A armored personnel carrier participating in the battle. The fact that this is a new modification of the combat vehicle, and not the old BTR-80 (delivered to Syria under a contract), is evidenced by the special shape of the tower.
APC on video from Syria
There is no information on the procurement of armored personnel carriers of this type by the Syrian Ministry of Defense in the public domain. Officially, these combat vehicles are in service with the armies of Russia and Kazakhstan.
An armored personnel carrier on video from Latakia from a different angle
In the video, you can see the side number on the armor of the armored personnel carrier - "111" in European numbers. In the Syrian army, armored vehicles are marked with side numbers written in original Arabic numerals, and not accepted in Russian and other European languages, which have undergone changes compared to the original version.
In this case, we can safely say that the armored personnel carrier captured on the video (with a high degree of probability) does not belong to the Syrian army. Considering that the BTR-82A is officially in service with the Russian army, which supports the regime of Bashar al-Assad, it could also be a Russian armored personnel carrier. The crew of the armored personnel carrier can be either Syrian or Russian.
In favor of the assumption that the crew is still Russian, says the audio sequence of the already mentioned video.
Video from Latakia (2:04–2:16)
At 2 minutes, shouts are heard, which can be parsed in Russian as:
Let's!
- Drop it!
- Yet!
- More!
Despite the fact that the cries are quite clear, it cannot be definitively asserted that it is Russian that we hear. By the way, in January of this year, a certain kind of “experts” tried to hear the Russian speech on the video of the attack on Charlie Hebdo.
In any case, one cannot discount the version that the BTR-82A participated in the battle under the control of Russian-speaking specialists. So far, this is the only evidence of the possible involvement of the Russian military in the Syrian conflict. Their number, belonging to specific units of the Russian army and other important details remain unknown.
Russia supplies weapons to Syria with the help of sea transport.
Both Russian small arms and equipment supplied to Syria since the start of the civil war are being used by the Syrian Arab Army in the conflict.
In one of the episodes of the civil war in Syria, mercenaries from Slavonic Corps participated - Russian citizens, but not Russian military personnel.
On the territory of Syria, there is an OSNAZ GRU facility of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, but there is no reliable information on how and by whom it was used during the conflict.
The use of Russian-made drones in the province of Idlib does not indicate the presence of military specialists from the Russian Federation in Syria. If there are UAV control specialists there, then there is no information about their participation in the battles.
The Russian military is indeed present in Syria. They do not participate in hostilities, but serve at the logistics center in Tartus and regularly escort the ships of the Russian Navy for more than a year.
The only possible evidence of the involvement of the Russian military in the clashes is a video from the province of Latakia, on which Russian is heard.
Who are Assad's troops fighting in Latakia province
Coincidentally, in a segment of social networks where users aggressively inclined towards the Russian military are gathered, there is an opinion that Russia “sent troops into Syria to fight freedom-loving Syrian rebels who are fighting against the tyrannical Assad regime for democracy.” These same users were the first to spread an explosive mixture based on fakes, as well as outdated, unverified and officially confirmed information under the guise of “independent investigations”.
As we have already found out, there is no evidence of any massive participation of Russian troops in the clashes in Syria. And now it’s worth explaining who the “moderate Syrian rebels” who are fighting against the Assad regime are now represented by.
Moderate" fighters
In the past year and a half, due to the widespread media circulation of the threat of the Islamic State, other Islamist groups have faded into the background. In particular, the creation by Syrian militants in March of the Jaish al-Fatah coalition group, which took this step to “improve coordination,” did not make it to the front pages of newspapers and TV news releases.
The coalition, led by the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra, included Ahrar al-Sham, Jund al-Aqsa, Sukur al-Sham, Ajnad al-Sham and other Islamist groups that, from an ideological point of view, are almost identical to the Islamic State. They also believe that they are waging "Jihad". They also seek to establish Sharia in opposition to the secular regime of Assad.
Their only disagreement with IS (which is why they are at war with it) is their unwillingness to obey IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. There are very few "moderate rebels" of the Free Syrian Army in Latakia. Most of them have become ordinary bandits who keep warehouses on the border with Turkey and resell weapons received from the CIA to jihadists.
It is hard to argue that the motley jihadist groups are the same threat to peace and stability as the Islamic State promoted in the media. This is the same important problem that requires no less radical solution than measures to combat ISIS. And if the day comes when Russian aviation starts bombing the positions of militants, then those who decide to be outraged by this fact will have to be aware that they support killers who, just like IS militants, are ready to take the life of anyone whose religion seems to them wrong.
ISIS activity of this organization on the territory of the Russian Federation is officially prohibited.
Is the Syrian conflict really a threat to Russia?
Alexander Shumilin
Threats in the modern world come from any conflict for the leading countries of the world. There are probably no exceptions to be made. Especially if this conflict is in the Muslim world and is associated with a confrontation of two types: between Shiites and Sunnis on the one hand and moderate and radical forces on the other. Since Russia is not so far from the Middle East and the population of Russia, at least twenty percent are Muslims, it is clear that a conflict of such depth and such parameters cannot but have some impact on the Muslim population.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky
If the Assad regime does not hold on, then even more refugees will flood into Europe and even more volunteers who want to become militants will go to the Middle East from Russia and from the CIS countries, from the Caucasus, because this will be the smell of victory: you can rob, kill and etc. The war there will continue, there will be the capture of Lebanon and Jordan, and even more militants will be drawn into the conflict. At this time, the Taliban will approach the Tajik and Uzbek borders. All this will complicate the situation. Of course, it is beneficial for them: to expel the refugees to Europe, so that it submits, supports and feeds them, and the militants, the youth, may strike at Iran and begin to move across Central Asia.
What is Russia doing in Syria: protecting its leader, Bashar al-Assad, or fighting the Islamic State?
Alexander Shumilin
Of course, he defends Bashar al-Assad, trying to resist all the fronts of his opponents, both the Islamic State and the moderate part. The moderate part of the population, by the way, are also “terrorists”: this is the official position in the Kremlin circles, which is now being reproduced. So the main task is to protect Bashar al-Assad from everyone, but not to fight the Islamic State. And as for who will have more blows - this will be decided by the colonels on the battlefield.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky
We are helping to preserve nation-states in Syria and Iraq, and millions of people in the Middle East will be grateful to us, because they do not have to be refugees, but rather they will return home. Therefore, our actions today are very important. This is a new era. Russia returned to Olympus, became a superpower again, and no more problems will be solved without Russia. And there will be a necessary presence of Russia in the Middle East. In addition, Russia will play a huge role in the preservation of cultural monuments in Syria. This is the reason for our participation in the fight against ISIS.
How can Russia's actions in Syria affect our country's relations with the United States?
Alexander Shumilin
This is a most serious moment, which is perceived in America as a manifestation of duplicity on the part of the Russian leadership, which promised to fight one enemy, but is fighting another enemy - an ally of the United States. And now options for forceful counteraction to Russia are being worked out. Confidence in Russia is undermined even more.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky
Everyone is satisfied with Russia's actions: Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Europe. The United States is dissatisfied only from one point of view: the option they wanted failed. The Europeans wanted to get Ukraine - they didn't get it, but the US wanted to establish its own regimes in the Middle East. But the situation in Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and now in Syria, has shown the US that they will not be able to achieve these goals. And they do not want to shed their blood there, lose thousands of soldiers. Therefore, they retreat, but in order for ISIS not to completely dominate the Islamic world, they agree that Russia stops ISIS and restores national order in terms of rebuilding the borders of Iraq and Syria.
Does Syria really need Russia's Russian Aerospace Forces?
Alexander Shumilin
Of course, because Assad has been defeated in recent months throughout this year. The prospect of his downfall was getting closer every day. To save Assad, to save for some short time in this situation is apparently possible only through a radical military intervention.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky
Russia will restore order there, everyone will calm down, and a normal life will begin for everyone. Therefore, this is the greatest event, Russia can claim the Nobel Peace Prize, if everything finally calms down there.
Could the presence of Russian troops in Syria provoke an aggravation of the conflict?
Alexander Shumilin
This conflict, of course, did not have a direct impact without special efforts on the Russian side. There is an indirect effect, and indirectly a domino effect, psychological impact when moderates or, on the contrary, radicals take over, because it excites the Muslim community, and in Russia too. But the specificity of the Syrian conflict is also in the fact that its main reason - opposition to the regime by a significant part of the population of Syria - is tied to Russia, to the support of Russia. That is, this question is no longer about the conflict itself, but about the position of the Russian leadership, which is firmly tied to the support of Assad, considering him a positive factor, but he is a side and a cause of the conflict in the perception of the majority both inside and outside the country. This kind of intervention in a conflict never goes unnoticed. A conflict of this type is fraught with very serious consequences for Russia as the party involved.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky
Russia has been there for a hundred years. They love us very much there, we built plants, factories, dams there, and our army helped them. Many officers of the Arab countries studied in Russia and know Russian. Our equipment is used everywhere there, and even our cars from the Brezhnev regime.
Image copyright AFP
D3 years ago Russia officially joinedinSyrianth war - 14 months after the United States did it.
On September 30, 2015, the Aerospace Forces (VKS) launched the first airstrikes on Syrian territory. Since then, they have flown more than 30,000 sorties and carried out more than 90,000 airstrikes (data released by the Russian Ministry of Defense on September 21).
In two years, according to official information, almost 40 Russian servicemen were killed. The media also reported on the death of Russians who took part in the hostilities outside the line of the Ministry of Defense.
By the time of the Russian intervention in Syria, a civil war had been going on for the fifth year between the army and other forces supporting President Bashar al-Assad, rebels and Islamists opposed to him, including militants of the Islamic State banned in Russia (IS, ISIS).
The Russian service of the BBC summed up the interim results of the Russian campaign.
Why is Russia involved in the Syrian civil war?
The main tasks of Russia's military actions are "to stabilize the legitimate government and create conditions for the search for a political compromise" in Syria, Vladimir Putin said in October 2015. By "legitimate authority," the Russian president meant the Assad regime.
Moscow also seeks to destroy ISIS and the Jabhat al-Nusra group (banned in Russia, both organizations appear on the UN sanctions list) and other associations that it considers terrorist.
Image copyright Tass Image caption Russia (Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu - left) is one of the few allies of the Bashar al-Assad regime (right)
Sometimes these tasks come into conflict with each other. “The very first clumsy and brutal military operation was not against ISIS, but against the Free Syrian Army, which posed an immediate threat to the regime,” Mark Galeotti, a New York University professor and expert on Russian security, noted in October 2015.
There is a widespread point of view among analysts that the true purpose of Russia's intervention in the conflict is the desire to increase its weight in the international arena and use the Syrian issue in bargaining with other world powers.
By 2015, the active phase of the war in Donbass, which had been the main foreign policy topic of the previous year for Russians, had ended.
"He [Putin] needed a red herring to cover up the failure of the war in eastern Ukraine," said Anders Åslund, a Swedish economist and diplomat and expert on Russia.
With what forces is Russia involved in the war?
Air strikes by military aviation, the presence of military advisers, military police, special forces.
In addition, the navy is used, including for missile strikes.
The media also reported that mercenaries from private military companies from Russia were taking part in the fighting. This has never been officially confirmed.
What has changed in Syria in two years?
Government troops have significantly expanded their zone of control over the country. Among other things, Assad and his military allies (including those from Iran and Lebanon) regained control of Aleppo, the country's largest city, in December 2016.
At the same time, the Islamic State's borders were shrinking. Among other things, the IG lost a number of oil fields: oil smuggling served as one of the important sources of financing for the group.
Click Two years of Russia in Syria
September 2017
September 30, 2015
How much is the merit of Russia?
Although Assad's troops have significantly expanded their zone of influence after Moscow's intervention, the question remains who made the main contribution to the successful fight against the Islamic State.
The American research center RAND Corporation considers the taming of IS to be the merit of the United States, which entered the war in early August 2014, and "to a lesser extent" - Russia, the Lebanese Hezbollah movement and Iran.
Who is fighting on the side of Russia, and who is against?
Moscow's clear enemies in the war are ISIS and grouping "Heyat Tahrir ash-Sham"(represents the union Jabhat al-Nusrs" and dozens of other similar groups).
Russia's allies can be called government troops Syria, Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Moscow has complicated relations with other parties. At the very beginning of the operation, Russia was criticized for strikes against representatives of the anti-Assad Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is openly supported by USA in its fight against the Assad regime and ISIS.
"Stroytransgaz" Gennady Timchenko, a businessman close to President Putin, had started a business in Syria before the war.
In 2007, Stroytransgaz completed the construction of the Arab gas pipeline from the Jordanian-Syrian border to a gas station in the Homs region under a contract with the Syrian Gas Company. The company also built a gas processing plant in Syria near Homs. Construction of another gas plant near Raqqa is ongoing.
In April 2017, Stroytransgaz received a contract to restore phosphate deposits near Palmyra. Damascus is also ready to offer Stroytransgaz contracts for the restoration of Palmyra destroyed during the fighting, Senator Dmitry Sablin said during a visit to Syria in April 2016.
Just patriotic Russian businessmen also tried to find their business benefit in war-torn Syria. Footwear manufacturer and retailer Zenden(second in terms of turnover in the Russian Federation) Andrey Pavlov decided to start shoe production in Syria in autumn 2016.
Prior to this, some of the shoes for the brand were sewn in Turkey. After the armed forces of this country shot down a Russian plane, the businessman decided to curtail his production there. In addition, sewing shoes in Syria was cheaper.
As a result, Zenden shoes are made in a factory in Latakia, not far from the Russian military base. And in the Russian stores of the network, special shelves appeared with a sign "Made in Syria".
By now, Pavlov has "tied up" with the production of shoes in Syria, the businessman himself told the BBC Russian Service. "In the season, perhaps, we will cooperate," he added, noting that only summer shoes were sewn at the factory.
The Russian Ministry of Defense was unable to promptly respond to requests for information on this material sent by the BBC Russian Service.
