A new wave of gubernatorial resignations began on March 19 with the departure of Boris Dubrovsky from the post of governor of the Chelyabinsk region. The process of regional rotations continues, and according to various sources, at least two more governors are next in line. Interlocutors of "FederalPress" name the main candidates to replace them. Who are waiting for vacant chairs of regional heads? Details are in our material.
Lost in history
Yesterday Boris Dubrovsky left the post of governor of the Chelyabinsk region. Federal and regional political scientists have long predicted this resignation. Dubrovsky was replaced by the first deputy minister of energy Alexey Teksler, whom the Kremlin previously considered as the future governor of one of the problem regions. The appointment to the Chelyabinsk region was facilitated by the origin of Texler.
The banner of the spring governor's fall was picked up by the head of the Altai Republic Alexander Berdnikov. Oleg Khorokhordin, head of the GLONASS joint venture, became the new acting head of the region. FederalPress predicted this appointment on the morning of March 19th.
“He worked in the Central Federal District, in the presidential administration, in the government of the Moscow region. He has a very rich experience both in the commercial sphere and in the civil service. This shows commitment to the technocrats. On the other hand, this demonstrates the strong influence of the deputy head of the presidential administration, Sergei Kiriyenko, on these appointments,” the political scientist comments on the new appointment. Pavel Danilin.
Resigned from his post and the head of Kalmykia Alexey Orlov, who also more than once fell into the pool of potential retirees. He was replaced by a member of the Federation Council, a former kickboxer Batu Khasikov.
“The region was in the hands of Orlov for quite a long time, who had the opportunity to show what he was capable of. The population was tired of it, they wanted a replacement, new prospects. A unique situation has developed in Kalmykia, when the birth rate greatly exceeds the death rate and there is a wild decline in the population due to migration. The people do not want to live in Kalmykia. Both Kalmyks and Russians are fleeing from there,” political scientist Pavel Danilin explains the reshuffle in Kalmykia.
Deputies-industrialists to replace the governors
The next person to retire is likely to be the governor of the Orenburg region. Yuri Berg. So far, this information has not been officially confirmed, but his departure from office is also predicted for a long time. Berg has been in the governor's chair since 2010. Experts note that the population of the Orenburg region is electorally tired of Berg, and in September 2019 he would simply be unelected.
FederalPress sources name the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy as the main candidate to replace Berg Vladimir Gutenev. This is reported by interlocutors in the State Duma and those close to the Presidential Administration. Gutenev has a rich background and vast experience in social work. Among other things, he is the first vice-president of the Union of Mechanical Engineers of Russia, deputy chairman of the central audit commission of the ONF. He also worked as an adviser to the CEO of the Russian Technologies State Corporation. Gutenev - professor, doctor of technical sciences. He can be counted among the Kremlin technocrats. In addition, he is a non-party member, which already adds points to his electability in the new political reality. Gutenev's biography is ideal for the appointment of acting governor, except for one point - he is not a native of the Orenburg region. Gutenev was born in Tambov.
Political scientists and journalists call another governor to go out Andrey Bocharov, who has been in charge of the Volgograd region since 2014. However, according to FederalPress, Bocharov's resignation will not happen this time. The fact is that on March 15, Bocharov met with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin, where they discussed the successes of the region and plans for the future. The president usually does not hold such meetings with governors who are leaving their posts. Thus, Bocharov will survive this fall of governor.
Meanwhile, it is worth taking a closer look at the potential replacement for Bocharov (and if he retains the post of governor, the heads of other regions). According to a FederalPress source, among the most likely candidates for a replacement, the Kremlin is considering another State Duma deputy - Denis Kravchenko. He is a member of the General Council of the United Russia party and coordinator of the Locomotives of Growth project. Kravchenko is an experienced apparatchik and has extensive managerial experience. In 2008, he was appointed deputy head of the Federal Agency for Youth Affairs. From 2011 to 2014, he served as Deputy Governor of the Pskov Region. The next job before being elected to the State Duma was the United Rocket and Space Corporation, where Kravchenko was deputy general director. Kravchenko's appointment is also supported by the fact that he was born in Volgograd. Also, State Duma deputy Irina Yarovaya previously appeared on the lists of possible candidates for governor of the Volgograd region.
Unsinkable
The most difficult story with a possible resignation and a new appointment remains the situation in the Murmansk region. According to unofficial data, Marina Kovtun has already written a letter of resignation, but this information has not yet been confirmed. Due to a number of corruption scandals in 2017, in which the deputy chief of staff of the government of the region was involved Eduard Nikrashevsky and Vice Governor Igor Babenko, Kovtun began to predict not only resignation, but also arrest. It should be noted that Kovtun was unable to establish relations with the local elites, and the security forces have a grudge against her. Adding fuel to the fire was the testimony of Babenko, who in February 2019 claimed that Kovtun had personally instructed government officials to collect money from businesses and spend it on banquets, gifts for federal officials, and buying fishing equipment and alcohol.
As one of the sources of FederalPress notes, the issue of Kovtun's resignation has long been resolved. The decision is delayed due to the search for a replacement.
“It is very, very difficult to persuade someone to go to this region,” the source of our agency notes.
Russian political scientists and journalists believe that the current wave of gubernatorial resignations will be limited to 5-6 officials, and the process of personnel renewal will continue in the fall. According to FederalPress, the heads of two more regions will leave their posts by the end of March. As noted by the speaker of the Federation Council, Valentina Matviyenko, the reshuffle in the governor's corps will continue until mid-April.
Photo: RIA Novosti / Mikhail Klimentyev
Sergei Markov. Photo: Yury Parshintsev / Parliamentary Newspaper
Why is the old guard of governors leaving, and what does the president expect from the new generation of managers? The director of the Institute for Political Studies spoke about this in an interview with Parliamentary Newspaper.
Sergei Alexandrovich, at the beginning of the week, the media announced the impending resignations of 10 governors. So far, however, President Vladimir Putin has signed decrees on the early termination of the powers of only the governor of the Samara region, Nikolai Merkushkin, and the head of the Nizhny Novgorod region, Valery Shantsev. Is the script confirmed?
To some extent, yes. The resignation of the governors of two very large, economically developed regions such as the Samara and Nizhny Novgorod regions, where, by the way, opposition sentiments are strong, is still not a minor reshuffle. Now the media are reporting about voluntarily leaving his post as head of Dagestan Ramazana Abdulatipova and the Governor of the Krasnoyarsk Territory. The trend may continue. We do not know whether there will be ten governors or not, but this is certainly not an isolated case.
In general, resignations in such large regions, where millions of voters live, indicate that this is still a political line. Quite old governors who had a long political career are leaving: both Merkushkin and Shantsev were long-term leaders.
- The President does not trust the old guard?
I think Vladimir Putin is striving for a personnel renewal of the country. Since the demand for new faces is obvious. Characteristically, the last gubernatorial elections were won by candidates who were practically unknown in the regions. For example, the former head of the Public Chamber Alexander Brechalov. Being a new face, young, literate, he easily won the elections in Udmurtia. As it turned out, it was enough for voters to know that the president supported him.
The president's calculation that this type of governor is in demand today turned out to be correct.
- Were there other preferences before?
The gubernatorial corps in Russia is changing in waves, and there are reasons for that. In the first wave, in the early nineties, there were the so-called young reformers, democrats, such as Boris Nemtsov and partly Anatoly Sobchak. In the second wave, there were former local secretaries of regional committees - political heavyweights from the Soviet era. During this period, critical attitudes towards the new government, which was perceived as a destructive force, intensified, and people in the regions saw certain saviors in the governors. They were supposed to realize the potential of the region left from Soviet times and save it from destruction. One of the brightest representatives of that cohort can be called Nikolay Kondratenko- ex-governor of the Krasnodar Territory.
The old guard is being replaced by young deideologized and depoliticized technocrats. The President is betting on them. How successful the choice will be, time will tell.
In the second half of the 90s, there was a request for governors-generals. Chaos and anarchy reigned in the country at that time, and it was only military generals who could restore order in the regions far from Moscow. Among them were, for example, Alexander Lebed and Vladimir Shamanov.
The third wave in Vladimir Putin's first term was marked by business governors. Then there was a trend towards the development of the economy and private business. You can remember the ex-governor of the Tula region Vladimir Gruzdev, which has been regularly ranked by Forbes since 2005.
After them came a wave of Chekist governors. These were people from the special services who helped the president in critical situations. For example, the current head of Ingushetia Yunus-bek Yevkurov. He is also a scout and played an important role in restoring order in the North Caucasus.
We are witnessing the fifth wave right now: technocratic governors are coming to rule the regions. Some, like the governor of Sevastopol Dmitry Ovsyannikov, economists, others also have experience in federal government. These people are functions. They also have an important circumstance - they are quite young and represent a new generation.
- That is, this type of governor is in demand now?
The last wave just tries to answer this question. The first thing that catches the eye is the strict observance of the condition that the new governor should not be associated with local elites. The President is consciously renewing the regional authorities. It's like a ship that has to dock and clean the keel of shells, then continue sailing. Shells, figuratively speaking, are corrupt ties that the new governor must destroy.
Second, it is the society's demand for new faces in politics. He really exists. And thirdly, this is that the president does not close, does not block the rejuvenation of the governor's corps.
The Administration of the President of Russia decided that the benefits from such a step would be greater than the risks. Apparently, they thought that the presidential appointees would have enough time left until March to get in the know and actively participate in the presidential election campaign.
The average age of State Duma deputies is much less than that of US senators and congressmen. We have more young deputies and ministers than any other country in the world. Therefore, the image of power in our country is quite young.
The old guard is being replaced by young deideologized and depoliticized technocrats. The President is betting on them. How successful the choice will be, time will tell. I think that Vladimir Putin wants the chairs of regional leaders to be occupied by people who are ready to work 20 hours a day. So that they move their regions forward through good governance, but at the same time not engage in populism. By the way, they won't succeed anyway, because Putin's henchmen do not have their own electoral potential. People do not vote for them in elections, because they have never been seen before. They vote for the president. Therefore, we can say that the president's soldiers sit in the chairs of the governors.
Why was it necessary to change governors before the presidential elections? Many experts say that this is not the best time.
I think that the Administration of the President of Russia decided that the benefits from such a step would be greater than the risks. Apparently, they thought that the presidential appointees would have enough time left until March to get in the know and actively participate in the presidential election campaign.
- Who do you think will be the next to leave the post of governor?
Nobody knows. There are no obvious figures. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the Presidential Administration has its own criteria for this, which differ from, say, public assessments of the effectiveness of governors. There are dozens of these criteria. Therefore, I would not exaggerate the awareness of a number of media about some of the names that are allegedly threatened with resignation in the near future.
On September 25, 2017, the Kommersant newspaper announced the upcoming resignation of governors in approximately 10 regions of the country, after the September elections. Among the subjects of the federation that may fall under personnel changes, Kommersant's sources listed Ivanovo, Samara, Nizhny Novgorod, Murmansk, Novosibirsk, Omsk regions, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (NAO), Krasnoyarsk and Altai Territories, possibly one or two subjects in the North Caucasus . Then, almost all the leaders of the regions, the newspapers included in the list, began to actively refute their upcoming resignations, but then, one after another, five governors from the list wrote a letter of resignation from their posts.
Looking at this process, I involuntarily remembered the detective novel by the English writer Agatha Christie "Ten Little Indians". This work is widely known in our country, because in the days of the USSR the most popular film by the famous domestic film director S. Govorukhin was shot on it. According to the plot, ten people are invited to the Negro Island under various pretexts. Once in the castle on the island, the guests gather in the hall and hear the death sentence recorded on the record for each of them. An unknown voice accuses the guests of the island of committing murders. On the table are black figurines of negro children, in each bedroom there is a rhyme on the wall from a children's rhyme. “Ten blacks decided to have lunch, one of them suddenly choked, and there were nine left of them” - the first verse from the counters. The first to die on the island is a guest poisoned by poison in a glass of wine. Further, one by one, exactly in accordance with the text of the children's counting about 10, the guests of the island die. A man dies - the figure of a black child disappears from the table. Involuntarily, I repeat, I had a feeling that the current campaign on the resignations of 10 governors is similar to Govorukhin's film. As if in a movie, a picture appeared in the mind in which, in some large room in the Kremlin, there is a table with figures of 10 negro governors who are removed from the table after the resignation by people with masks on their faces. To date, the names of 5 of the 10 leaders of the regions of the country who left their seats are already known, five figures have been removed from the board. As of October 1, 2017, five more pieces on the board remained unremoved.
Of course, any comparison is lame by definition, but clearly that desperate struggle of influence groups now at the level of high Kremlin offices for control over this or that region is worthy of the pen of the famous English detective writer. Events are now taking place under the Kremlin carpet that could provide material for writing a new big novel for the queen of detectives. It is on this side of the situation that I would like to discuss here with you, dear readers.
So. When it seemed that the issue was completely resolved and it was worth eating popcorn, just waiting for the continuation of the banquet with the planned resignations of the governors on the list, suddenly list number 2 appeared. On September 29, 2017, Minchenko Consulting published another study as part of the Politburo 2.0 project , denoting a slightly different circle of regional heads, who may soon be dismissed. Of those who have already left the post this week or announced their imminent resignation, Valery Shantsev (former governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region), Nikolai Merkushkin (Samara region), Ramazan Abdulatipov (Dagestan), Viktor Tolokonsky (Krasnoyarsk Territory) were in the "red" zone of the rating ), Igor Koshin (Nenets Autonomous Okrug).
In addition, according to a study by Yevgeny Minchenko and his colleagues, 11 more figures were at risk. Among them are Svetlana Orlova (Vladimir Region), Pavel Konkov (Ivanovo Region), Alexei Orlov (Kalmykia), Vyacheslav Bitarov (North Ossetia), Alexander Berdnikov (Republic of Altai), Alexander Karlin (Altai Territory), Viktor Nazarov (Omsk Region) , Vladimir Gorodetsky (Novosibirsk Region), Vladimir Miklushevsky (Primorsky Territory), Georgy Poltavchenko (St. Petersburg), Marina Kovtun (Murmansk Region). The number of "negroes" has increased significantly.
According to political analysts, following the wave of appointments and reappointments in 2016 and 2017, four influence groups were among their main beneficiaries. First, a coalition of Sergei Chemezov (Rostec), Viktor Zolotov (head of the National Guard), Yuri Chaika (Russian Prosecutor General), Anton Vaino (head of the presidential administration) and Sergei Ivanov (special presidential envoy for ecology and transport); secondly, the group of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and his allies; thirdly, the group of Sergei Sobyanin; fourthly, the group of State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin.
“The presence of our own personnel bench is becoming, along with the project and ideological resource, one of the most important resources of the elite groups. And the success of the recommended appointees turns into one of the significant criteria for evaluating Politburo 2.0 members by the President of the Russian Federation. The victims of resignations in 2016-2017 were the heads of regions who do not have support within the Politburo 2.0 or who have lost it for one reason or another. It seems that this trend will continue in the future," Minchenko Consulting experts summarize.
Most likely, the authors of the report know their business and their conclusions are well founded. But we cannot fail to note that the two lists, despite a certain similarity, still differ from each other. For example, the Head of Kalmykia, who was not included in the list number one, got into the list number 2. Upon learning that he was on the verge of leaving a high post, according to the website of the Stepnaya Mozaika newspaper, he was simply dumbfounded. The author of an article in a newspaper close to Orlov directly accused Minchenko and his company of putting Orlov on the list for a bribe given to them by Ilyumzhinov along with a prominent Kalmyk businessman, Shondzhiev. Judging by such statements, Orlov’s entourage is generally divorced from the realities of life in modern Russia, they apparently continue to live in the 90s under President Yeltsin and under the omnipotence of Boris Berezovsky, in the realm of lawlessness and endemic corruption, when anything was bought and sold for money .
But why then did list number 2 appear? Why was the list of governors for relegation replenished with additional regions? The answer is most likely very simple. We began to clean up the governors’ corps and came to the conclusion that since we are already solving problems in problem areas and weak governors, then why delay the decision on those regions in which the resignations of governors are also overdue. They will need to be changed in any case and in the very near future. what then is a cat by the tail? Resign the governors in these regions and start a new work cycle in them. And these resignations had to be further substantiated. Explain to the public the inclusion in the list of additional territories. Why, for example, Kalmykia was included? Because Orlov has generally the lowest rating among all governors. Etc. etc.
Such are the "Ten Little Indians" in the Russian way.
