Many things in the market are unpredictable. Surprises, both good and bad, happen all the time and have a huge impact on traders' positions. One of the key tasks of trading is to respond as quickly as possible to new events and changes in the state of the market. But it is equally important to do everything in order to reduce the number of "market surprises".
What can provoke the emergence of "market surprises"? These are scheduled events and unplanned events.
Scheduled events affecting
Scheduled events include those events that can and should be marked in advance on the calendar. For example:
publication of data on the income of certain companies,
publication of data on the income of competitors of those companies whose shares you hold,
advance news about the stocks you trade,
scheduled economic reports such as Philly Fed, Jobless Claims, GDP, etc.,
FOMC central bank meetings. They can be separated into a separate line,
· Reports on crops or those goods in which you are engaged.
It is important to avoid jumping to conclusions here. You cannot predict the outcome of events taking place in the world of finance. So don't blame yourself if you don't "understand" that the Fed chairman was giving a speech in some "special way" and then some stocks went up or down. S&P500 index sank a lot. Guessing the outcome of events is like playing in a casino. The trader only needs to know when these events will occur and affect prices. But how they will affect is unknown.
With unplanned events, everything is much more complicated. These events most often occur spontaneously. They can happen in the next five minutes, in a week or a month. It is very difficult to accurately predict their occurrence. For example:
resolution of a legal issue for a particular company (litigation, etc.),
a law that may affect the activities of the company,
approval or rejection of a patent, new drug, etc.,
an unplanned (rumored) announcement of a new product or line of business from a company you follow,
decision on geopolitical issues or other macroeconomic events.
These things are harder to predict due to uncertainty over time, but both groups of events will be handled the same way. Any “external” (non-systemic) event can be handled in two ways.
Event Forecasting
You can try to predict the outcome of events: keep track of which drug will be approved by the FDA; anticipate that country A will send tanks to the border of country B and disrupt the flow of goods C; find out that, contrary to expectations, the fields were watered abundantly, so the harvest report should be positive. Is it worth it? Maybe. But for each of the cases there is a specialist who earns for trying to predict the results of certain events every day. The vast majority of those reading this article are not experts in the field of financial forecasting and their conclusions about the impact of news and reports on the stock price or the value of a derivative financial instrument are mere guesswork. Of course, there are many people who have tried to do such work without sufficient experience and knowledge. But before you try yourself as financial analyst and ask yourself some questions:
Can you get data that is not available to ordinary market participants?
- Do you have enough knowledge and experience to analyze them and understand them correctly?
- Is there any reason why you will do the analysis better than specialists?
You have no idea how difficult this job is. If you want to achieve results, you will have to study for ten years with those who are well versed in the field of forecasting. You will not become better than others if you read books, listen to the news, browse social networks, get an education in an educational institution, or use another source of knowledge. The ability to predict arises when all these things are combined with an understanding of the logic of the market.
But in the long run, things are not so bad. We are just warning you how difficult the forecasting process is. If you choose this path, you will have to gain serious practical experience. And even if you correctly predict the results of events, in some cases, it will differ from expectations.
Event management
There is an easier way for traders to understand that these events will cause market volatility and increase risk. If events are planned, then you clearly know when the market will change. But how to use this information? Consider events as random impulses: “I know that they will occur at a specific time and will serve as an impetus for the market. I don’t know in which direction, so the result can be both bad and good.” What to do?
Let's try to give simple answers to this question, and you adapt them to your situation. It is best to simply reduce the size of the position or liquidate it before events occur that change the state of the market. If you are in a very promising position, which should give a significant, then realizing that it will rise sharply soon and anything can happen, it is better to pull the stop loss to breakeven and be patient.
It should be noted that there are also surprises: some events do not affect in any way, while others give an unexpectedly strong impetus. It's part of a trader's job to deal with such changes in the market. But remember that you can not fail from a planned event that you somehow did not know about. Earnings reports, central bank meetings, the announcement of economic indicators - you should not trade before these events, but you need to know and remember about them. Therefore, always follow the calendar of events.
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All these events happened in the first 16 years of my life. After that, nothing particularly excited me ...
Children think a lot about life, but know very little about it. Therefore, they have much more in their heads than they see or can ask. That is, their inner world is much larger and richer than the outer.
1. Once I stole a typewriter from a friend. I couldn't play it. He began to suffer terribly. Mom found out about this and advised me to call the parents of that boy. The shame was monstrous, the very thought of calling was unbearable, but I made up my mind. Then I realized that courageous deeds are harder to do than shameful ones, but they make you stronger ...
2. When I was little, I considered myself very smart. At least, it was difficult for me to imagine a smarter person, except perhaps for a few adults. This feeling passed when I read Tolstoy's Childhood. Adolescence. Youth". I was struck that the writer recalls the same thing and in the same words about himself. Around the same time, I learned about the infinity of the universe. Then I realized how many small inner worlds there are and what an inexplicable big world they form ...
3. One day I went to a pioneer camp because I was in love with a pioneer leader. Before that, I was in the camp only once, but I escaped, Here I was appointed as a standard-bearer. I really liked the white gloves, the red ribbon over the shoulder and the cap, but it turned out that at the end of the banner transfer ceremony, he would have to be kissed. It seemed a little unnatural to me, especially since by that time I had never kissed. In general, the appointment did not take place. Also, I didn't have a social life, I didn't like the candle game, and I never learned to play the drum. I did nothing wrong, but the activists hated me. I had to leave again. Then I realized that even if you are a good person, this does not mean that everyone will love you ...
4. One day my friends and I were sitting in the school locker room after school. An elementary school teacher passed by, who thought we were picking pockets. Trial has begun. The case of theft was announced at a parent-teacher meeting. It was impossible to make excuses, even the parents began to doubt. Before that, I had to lie, but, as a rule, unsuccessfully. Therefore, the power and authority of truth were invincible for me. But then I realized that even if you are right, this does not mean at all that they will believe you. It turned out that one must fight for the truth ...
5. Once, on a cultural exchange program, my class and I went to Hungary. Abroad shocked everyone. My Hungarian had a wine cellar in his house, and for lunch they ate cherry soup. Our peers rode the girls on their own motorcycles, drank wine and walked at night. A friendly football match took place between us. Girls, of course, were fans. In a word, you will not see such battles! Borodino faded before this battle. It was imperative to win. And we won. Then I realized something about patriotism...
6. In youth, physical strength and a sense of justice mean a lot. That's why I fought a lot at school. At the age of 16, I broke my classmate's nose. In principle, as the investigator explained, this was considered a serious bodily injury. But after interrogation, he promised not to start a case, but offered to inform him about cases of theft and distribution of pornography at school and left the phone. The paper had to be thrown out in the corridor, as the victim was eavesdropping at the door. Then I realized that dignity should always be stronger than fear ...
7. The first parting with a loved one is never easy. I also had a hard time experiencing this moment until I sat down at the table and wrote a heartfelt lyrical story about a submarine officer. When the end was put on paper at four in the morning, I was well and went to bed. Then I realized that art is a great power...
8. And the last. Even as a child, I was struck by the difference between a man and a woman. This shock has not yet passed.
Probably, I will repeat (the chronology is not observed):
1. Reference to books. On so many questions, my father's first answer was, "Look in the books." +100 to self-education.
1 1/2. And my super parents gave me a 14-volume book "Everything about Everything"
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2. Parents taught to read early enough and instilled an interest in reading (see prev.)
3. Love for "trial" and "gathering": everything that was possible was broken, and later neatly untwisted. As a result - a broken "Jolly Chef"
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for which I grieved for a long time, but also learned accuracy and caution.
4. Libraries. In my village, I was one of the few schoolchildren who went to our small, scarce in content, but such cozy libraries for their own pleasure. Oddly enough, I've never been particularly fond of fiction. Yes, read by Wells, Heinlein, Asimov
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But it wasn't all that. Because there were also books on electronics, computers, astronomy, photography, a large selection of Kvant. Well, you understand which way I went :).
4 1/2. Crazy books and magazines: "With a calculator everywhere", "Question Mark", "Modeler-Constructor", "Young Technician", "Do It Yourself". Notice everything was released before the breakup
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5. Once upon a time, a battery, pieces of wires and a light bulb came together in my hands :).
6. "Lego" from "Magic Chests" (the sets were a little expensive, but here are two in one). Incredible advantages to design and TRIZ skills.
7. Books by Ya.I. Perelman - I hope that everyone has read it, and those who have not read it have at least seen what kind of a miracle it is. By the way, I recently saw a large, colorful, but absolutely thoughtless and, as a result, useless compilation of his books - an attempt to modernize his works, but extremely unsuccessful: an ardent copy-paste of his pre-revolutionary texts and drawings is mixed with modern terms.
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8. Guitar. He studied himself - his father only managed to set it up for the first time. And, in fact, I continue to study for 8 years.
9. Astronomy. Several Soviet books and eyes. He learned celestial mechanics and basic formulas from the Soviet astronomy textbook Vorontsov-Velyaminov for grade 10. Pulled up physics, vision and observation. Well, you can always show off by pointing your finger at the sky and telling what is there.
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What I was missing:
1. Patience and perseverance to drive into my head all the knowledge that school teachers gave me.
2. Music and art schools. First, because I love music (see paragraph 1.8), but I learned to play with great difficulty, because there was absolutely no ear, it began to appear only now. What made it worse was that for the first year and a half (before the advent of the computer and the AP Tuner) I played the guitar tuned "and so it will do." As a result, everything that could be mastered with a teacher in a year and a half, I am still studying.
I can't say the same about artistic endeavors. Well I am able to draw the room in perspective (under the ruler). But something more difficult - already hardly.
3. A real radio circle and a bunch of radio components. So far, the soldering iron hasn't gotten around to doing much more than changing the wiring in a guitar.
…
N. You can continue both lists indefinitely. But I know exactly what would have gone to my detriment as a child. Internet. I used it at an age already beyond the scope of fasting in a strictly metered amount in an Internet cafe. It was successfully replaced by books.
Decembrists: "Children of 1812"
On December 26 (14), 1825, an uprising took place on Senate Square in St. Petersburg, which remained in history as the Decembrist uprising. This day influenced the entire subsequent development of the social thought of the Russian Empire. The Decembrists opposed autocratic power, against serfdom. They believed in the power of reform.
In Russian historiography, it has been repeatedly emphasized that the Patriotic War of 1812 had a huge impact on the worldview of the Decembrists. Actually, we can say that it was this war that awakened in the future Decembrists thoughts about the fate and position of their homeland and their compatriots of all classes.
"We were the children of 1812"
Many Decembrists were participants in the War of 1812. Some of them took an active part in the war, deserved many awards. Among them, for example, Mikhail Fedorovich Orlov, Matvey Alexandrovich Dmitriev-Mamonov and, of course, Sergei Grigorievich Volkonsky. The candidacies of these generals were even considered for the placement of their portraits in the Military Gallery of the Winter Palace, dedicated to the war of 1812. But for various reasons they were not approved. Only with the candidacy of Volkonsky, everything was quite obvious: his portrait was painted, but it was simply impossible to place a portrait of an already convicted state criminal in the Winter Palace.
Most of the future Decembrists in 1812 were very young officers who, despite their age, fought for their homeland against Napoleon's army. Such prominent Decembrists as Prince Trubetskoy, the Muravyov-Apostol brothers, Pavel Pestel and many others participated in many of the most important battles of the 1812 campaign, distinguished themselves in the battle of Borodino, at Maloyaroslavets. They also participated in the foreign campaigns of the Russian army. They, too, were heroes of the war, who at that moment had not yet had time to rise to high ranks.
Decembrist Nikita Muravyov wrote: "In 1812 I had no way of thinking, except for a fiery love for the Fatherland." This lofty patriotic impulse, which seized the entire Russian people, forever changed the minds of the future Decembrists. It is no coincidence that Matvey Ivanovich Muravyov-Apostol said about the Decembrist movement: "We were children of 1812."
S. G. Volkonsky with his wife in a cell in the Petrovsky prison. Drawing by N. A. Bestuzhev, 1830
"The Spirit of Transformation Makes Minds Bubbling"
An important factor in shaping the worldview of the Decembrists was the campaign in Western Europe. According to the Russian historian Militsa Vasilievna Nechkina, it was precisely the foreign campaigns of 1813-1814. were the accelerator of the "developing ideological process."
Russian soldiers and officers visited European countries where there was no serfdom, where at least some constitutional institutions and concepts existed. Everything they saw made a huge impression on the future Decembrists. They were concerned about the question - why is there no such thing in Russia, which defeated Napoleon, one of the strongest world powers.
Vasily Osipovich Klyuchevsky wrote about how these events affected the Russian people: “ These events had a very different effect on Russian society and on the Russian government. In the first they caused extraordinary political and moral excitement. The Russian people, who had just experienced such dangers, came out of them with a more vivid sense of their strength. This excitement also showed itself in literature, even official literature; in official periodicals, continuing the old tone that had been established in the press since the beginning of the reign, there were articles on such issues as freedom of the press, etc. This excitement was even more vivid in unofficial periodical literature; here articles were directly printed under the title "On the Constitution", in which they proved "the goodness of the representative institutions"».
Russian soldiers and officers crossed Europe from Moscow and almost to its western outskirts, participated in those important events that decided the fate of the Western European peoples, felt themselves to be the liberators of Europe from the rule of Napoleon. Everything that they saw there, that they were surprised and amazed, they applied to their fatherland, compared it with Europe.
Pavel Ivanovich Pestel wrote: The events of 1812, 1813, 1814 and 1815, as well as those of previous and subsequent times, showed so many thrones overthrown, so many others established, so many kingdoms destroyed, so many new ones established, so many kings expelled, so many returned or called and so many again expelled, so many revolutions. committed, so many upheavals were made that all these incidents familiarized the minds with revolutions, with the possibilities and conveniences of making them. In addition, each century has its own distinctive feature. The current one is marked by revolutionary thoughts. From one end of Europe to the other one and the same thing is visible everywhere, from Portugal to Russia, not excluding a single state, even England and Turkey, these two opposites. All of America presents the same spectacle. The spirit of transformation makes, so to speak, minds everywhere bubbling ... These are the reasons, I believe, that gave rise to revolutionary thoughts and rules and rooted them in the minds».
Sergei Timofeevich Aksakov wrote in one of his poems about the disappointment that opened up before the Russian people after the victory over Napoleon:
Oh, how wrong we are with you, dear friend,
What a vain dream consoled our spirit!
We thought that this terrible year
Not only will there be evil, but also a good cause;
What ruin, fires and robbery,
Enemies fury, deceit, anger, lies,
Death of our brothers, desolation of the country
The French will be forever disgusted ...
But, alas, what does my eye see everywhere?
And in the very triumph I see our shame!
Having won with a hand, we are slaves of minds,
We curse the French with French words.
Crowds of these captives, robbers, murderers,
Invading Russia like flocks of birds of prey,
Regrets are much more inhaled,
Than Russian warriors, wounded in battles!
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Chronicle of the day: Battle of Piktupenen
Paulucci's vanguard overtook the enemy near the village of Buderiksgoff and entered into battle with him. As a result, the enemy was overthrown, and the Russian troops captured 80 prisoners and enemy cattle. After this victory, Paulucci went to the Memel-Tilsit line and could join the troops of General Platov.
Meanwhile, the avant-garde E.I. Vlastova attacked the Seventh Infantry Division of General Granjean near the town of Piktupenen. A stubborn battle ensued, in which the French won. General Vlastov was driven back with heavy losses and forced to retreat to Tilsit. Granjean's division took advantage of the fruits of its victory and freely retreated to Taurogen.
Person: Sergei Grigorievich Volkonsky
Sergei Grigorievich Volkonsky (1788-1865)
Volkonsky came from an old princely family. He received a superficial education at home, and then was sent to the private boarding school of Abbé Nicolas in Petersburg. In 1796, he was enrolled as a sergeant in the Kherson Grenadier Regiment. Volkonsky's active service began in December 1805.
During the French campaign of 1806-1807. Volkonsky distinguished himself in a number of battles. He was awarded the Order of St. Vladimir 4 tbsp. with a bow, received a gold badge for Preussisch-Eylau and a gold sword for bravery.
Volkonsky also participated in the Turkish campaign of 1810-1811. He took part in the conquest of the fortress of Silistria, near Shumla, in the siege of the fortress of Ruschuk. He received a golden sword for bravery, was promoted to captain and became the adjutant wing of Alexander I.
During the Patriotic War of 1812, Prince Volkonsky was with the Emperor in the rank of His Majesty's adjutant wing. He took part in the battles of the 2nd Western Army at Mogilev and Dashkovka. As part of the detachment of Adjutant General Wintzingerode, he participated in the battles near Porechie, Vitebsk, and Dmitrov. Volkonsky was promoted to colonel. He also participated in the battles at the crossing of the river. I scream, in the battle at Dukhovshchina and near Smolensk, as well as when the enemy was crossing the river. Berezin, for which he was awarded the Order of St. Vladimir 3rd degree.
In the foreign campaigns of the Russian army, Volkonsky participated in many major battles. He especially distinguished himself in the battle of Kalisz, for which he was awarded the Order of St. George 4th class, in the battle of Lutsen. For this campaign, he was awarded the Order of St. Anne, 2nd class, adorned with diamonds, and the Prussian Order of Merit. And on September 15, 1813, he was promoted to major general. He distinguished himself near Leipzig and was awarded the Order of St. Anna 1st class. In 1814, Volkonsky fought in France in 1814 and was awarded the Prussian Order of the Red Eagle, 2nd class.
In 1819, Volkonsky joined the Union of Welfare, and in 1821 - in the Southern Society. Volkonsky was one of the most active participants in the Decembrist movement. January 5, 1826 Volkonsky was arrested in connection with the uprising of the Chernigov infantry regiment, taken to St. Petersburg and imprisoned in the Peter and Paul Fortress.
Volkonsky was convicted in the 1st category, deprived of all ranks, noble rank and privileges, sentenced to death. But the death penalty was replaced by twenty years of hard labor, subsequently reduced to 9 years.
In Siberia, he organized material support for poor comrades and made friends with local peasants, providing them with medical and other assistance. In 1856 he was amnestied and came to Moscow. The nobility was returned to him, but not the princely title. Of the awards, at a special request, he was returned the military order of George for Preussisch-Eylau and a commemorative medal of 1812 (these awards were especially dear to him).
His wife is also known - Maria Nikolaevna Volkonskaya, nee Raevskaya. She was the daughter of the famous hero of the war of 1812, Nikolai Nikolaevich Raevsky. She followed her husband to Siberia for hard labor, despite the resistance of her relatives.
December 13 (25), 1812
The Russians are chasing Grandjean
Person: Matvei Fedorovich Kazakov
Architect of all Moscow
December 12 (24), 1812
Russians attack Grandjean's detachment
Person: George Doe
Military gallery of the Winter Palace
December 11 (23), 1812
Victory over the Prussians at Tilsit
Person: Alexander Pavlovich
Alexander I: "The Sovereign Sphinx"
December 10 (22), 1812
Battles at the Neman
Person: Grand Duke Sergei Alexandrovich
Celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Patriotic War
December 9 (21), 1812
The history of Russia is very diverse, ambiguous and enticing. This country has existed for hundreds of years, it has significantly contributed to the development of world history. Russia experienced a lot of crashes and falls, but it always got up from its knees and moved on towards a brighter future. Countless attempts to capture it were crowned with resounding failures, no one will ever be able to conquer this great power. The people staunchly stood for their independence and freedom, and no one bowed their heads before the lords and invaders. So today Russia is the leading country in the world in many different areas. This is astronautics, and mechanical engineering and much more.
The twentieth century was marked for Russia and a number of other countries by terrible and bloody wars, which, unfortunately, claimed millions of human lives. After the end of the Second World War, Russia as part of the USSR continued its rapid development in absolutely all sectors, this was the case until the collapse of this great and indestructible power. A decade has passed, a very difficult decade, and now Russia is again zealously striving forward towards a bright and carefree future. What awaits her in the future? Everything depends on the Russian people, who have always amazed the whole world with their steadfastness and steadfastness.
1861 February 19 - the abolition of serfdom
A significant date for the entire Russian people, from now on the country was free from the shackles of slavery. This year marked the beginning of a new stage in Russian history. The internecine wars were over. A truly strong and wise empress ascended the throne, who managed to raise Russia from its knees and achieve its greatness and respect in Europe.
1905-1907 - the first Russian revolution
The bloody revolution ended in failure. The autocracy was not overthrown and the tsar remained on the throne. During the period of the first revolution, the main revolutionaries of 1917 participated. This young generation of rebels and reformers tried in every possible way to change the political system that had reigned in Russia for many centuries.
1914, August 1 - Russia's entry into World War 1
It is impossible not to touch this event. The first war of the imperialists in history ended with monstrous human losses in the first place. As a result of this war, the leading world empires collapsed - the Ottoman, German, German. In parallel with the war, Russia was also experiencing a great revolution. This period was extremely difficult for the country, but in the end we all know that the most powerful state on the planet was formed
1917, February 27 - uprising in Petrograd
1917, February 27 - an armed uprising in Petrograd (the transition of the soldiers of the Petrograd garrison to the side of the insurgent population).
These years were marked by the formation of the Provisional Committee of the State Duma and the election of the Petrograd Soviet. Unanimous victory in the elections to the Petrograd Soviet of the Socialist-Revolutionaries and Mensheviks. A new stage in the history of the Great Power.
1918, March 3 - signing of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk
From now on, Russia left the battlefield. Now there was an urgent need to put an end to the outbreak of civil war and bring the country's economy to growth. After the signing of the treaty, one of the stones oppressing Russia fell asleep.
The great power stood on its feet and smoothly began to move towards development. The civil war was completely over. The USSR headed for a brighter future. The economy began to gradually grow, the wounds from the civil war began to gradually heal.
1941, June 22 - 1945, May 9 - Great Patriotic War
The most terrible war in the history of mankind began on this wonderful summer and carefree day. For four long years, the people fought fiercely against the Nazi invaders, who treacherously invaded the territory of the USSR.
1945, May 8-9 - capitulation of Nazi Germany, Victory Day
May 9 - Victory Day. Victory Day! It was this holiday that was forever imprinted in the memory of absolutely every young and adult inhabitant of this great country. At the cost of millions of lives, the country gained such a desired victory over a bloodthirsty enemy. Now the USSR has proved that it is worth something!
1956, February - XX Congress of the CPSU
The congress was marked by the world-famous "dispelling of Stalin's personality cult." Nikita Khrushchev literally shocked everyone present with his fiery speech. This is a new stage in the history of Russia and the entire USSR. This so-called thaw period has left its mark forever.
1991, December 8 - signing of the Bialowieza agreement
1991, December 8 - signing by B. N. Yeltsin (RSFSR), L. M. Kravchuk (Ukraine), S. S. Shushkevich (Belarus) of the Belovezhskaya agreement on the dissolution of the USSR.
This is the end of a great and powerful state. Seventy years of existence have not gone unnoticed. Russia again became the successor of the USSR. Again wars, enmity, political and economic crises. All this accompanied the country throughout the difficult nineties against the backdrop of total devastation, the war in Chechnya and much more.
year 2000
Election of President of Russia Vladimir Putin. A radically new period in the history of Russia. The new head of state was able to bring the country out of a long-term crisis, out of practically ruins. The country's economy was raised several times, the armed forces became powerful again. Various space programs were re-deployed, the country moved forward again! Now everything depends on the people of Russia, their fate belongs to them and no one else!
