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The butterfly effect is a concept from chaos theory. Why is the butterfly effect dangerous? Why is the butterfly effect so called?

In science, the influence of small things on the system is defined by the term "". According to the theory of chaos, even the smallest strokes of a butterfly affect the atmosphere, which ultimately can change the trajectory of movement, accelerate, delay or even prevent its occurrence at a certain time and in a certain place. That is, although the butterfly itself is not the initiator of a natural disaster, it is included in the chain of events and has a direct influence on it.

Until a few decades ago, scientists assumed that at the beginning of the twenty-first century, computers would be able to make accurate weather forecasts six months in advance. However, at present, due to this effect, it is impossible to make an absolutely accurate forecast even for several days.

"Butterfly effect": the history of the term

The "butterfly effect" is associated with the name of the American meteorologist and meteorologist Edward Lawrence. The scientist associated the term with the theory of chaos, as well as with the dependence of the system on its initial state.

The idea itself was first voiced in 1952 by the American science fiction writer Ray Bradbury in the story “Thunder Came Out,” where, having got into the past, a dinosaur hunter crushed a butterfly and thereby influenced the fate of the American people: voters chose instead of a loyal candidate - an ardent fascist.

Did this have any further use of the term by Lawrence? Big question. But the year of publication gives reason to believe that Bradbury's thought was primary, and the scientist scientifically substantiated and popularized this definition.

In 1961, after a bad weather forecast, Edward Lawrence stated that if such a theory were correct, a single flap of a gull's wing could change the course of the weather.

Current usage of the term "butterfly effect"

Now this term has become quite popular. It is often used in scientific articles, newspaper articles and television programs. In 2004, an American feature film called The Butterfly Effect was released, and in 2006 its second part appeared.

However, the use of such a term in most cases is not entirely correct or incorrect. Most often, it is associated with the journey of people (heroes of the film, for example) through time, and this is already an impact on history. A person does not even need to change anything in the past in order for the future to turn out to be different. Hence the distortion of the term "butterfly effect" in the minds of the mass audience.

The butterfly effect is a unique phenomenon that managed not only to become another boring discovery, but also to get into the cinema and the press. He confirms the correctness of popular sayings that an insignificant act can lead to serious consequences, unimaginable at first glance.

Butterfly effect - what is it?

This phenomenon may not occur in every system: only in the one that is called chaotic. It is based on the famous chaos theory, which says that any complex system is unpredictable and its details can mix with each other in a way that is unexpected for itself. The butterfly effect is a phenomenon capable of comprehending a biological system at any level. It is also subject to a person who is influenced by positive and negative factors that determine his health throughout his life. There are several points of view on it:

In differential equations, you can slightly change the conditions and this will significantly affect their solution.
The butterfly effect determines the behavior of a roulette ball in a casino, because its fall depends on a lot of circumstances.
In a world of chaos, it is impossible to predict the behavior of systems, but the likelihood of them getting out of control is steadily increasing.

Why is the butterfly effect so called?

The name was coined by the American mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz. He was the first to suggest, giving it a bizarre form of metaphor. Edward figured that the flapping of a single butterfly's wings in Iowa could trigger an avalanche of other actions, such as causing a storm during the Indonesian rainy season. The Butterfly Effect is a concept so named because of its association with the plot of Ray Bradbury's short story "Thunder Came".

Butterfly effect - psychology

The phenomenon ceases to be boring as soon as it enters the sphere of the humanities. The butterfly effect in psychology echoes Lorenzo's belief, but complements it with the ability of the individual to influence collective reality, like a raindrop filling a bowl. A person is arranged in such a way that it is easier for him to deny the possibility of influencing the outcome of the war, the growth of the population of homeless animals, public opinion. Knowing what the butterfly effect is, how to understand and apply its action to your advantage? The use of the phenomenon for the purpose of personal development consists of the following stages:

awareness of positive and negative in details;
accepting traits with which there was no desire to put up before;
a reward for finding a balance between irreconcilable qualities;
connection of all internal forces to strengthen the struggle with difficulties and circumstances.

Butterfly effect in real life

In the real world, you can find non-fictional cases of the influence of a small event on the course of history. About what the butterfly effect is, what each of its consequences means, such personalities as:

Resident of Stockton, California. In 2003, he failed to repay a $250,000 mortgage loan, triggering a global banking crisis.
Norman Bolog is a breeder who created unpretentious varieties of vegetables and fruits that saved a huge number of people from starvation during droughts and crop failures in the 20th century.
Catherine II - her husband, Peter the Third, was such an uninteresting interlocutor that she spent all her time in the library. Deep knowledge helped her to fairly rule the country for many years.

Butterfly effect - interesting facts

The butterfly effect is a phenomenon that became the main character of the Hollywood movie of the same name. The hero of Ashton Kutcher with enviable regularity uses his memory to travel into the past in order to change the events that led to the chain of tragedies in the future. The painting itself has become a symbol of the butterfly effect. Either because of the rental of higher-grossing films, or because of the illness of the actors, its premiere was postponed for one year.

Butterfly effect and chaos theory

This pattern really appeared thanks to the theory of chaos and became one of its signs. This teaching is based on the mathematical concepts used in the modulation of systems. The media, cinema and scientists have created the wrong image for teaching: for example, thanks to Jurassic Park, people know that society should be seriously wary of the unity of chaos and nature. There is no such second phenomenon as the butterfly effect, the chaos theory that would make the world famous, so people are afraid of the unknown. In its most primitive form, its postulates can be revealed as:

It does not deny the very essence of ordering. Systems can be programmable, but no one can give guarantees.
It focuses its efforts on the consequences of misfortunes caused by chaos.
It does not obey the expected periodicity. Time delays and feedback prevent the system from adjusting to the schedule.
It works on the principle of bifurcation. Taking bizarre forms and breaking all the rules, chaos is guaranteed to return to order.

Butterfly Effect(English) The Butterfly Effect):

Moonspell

movies

"The Butterfly Effect" - Part 1 of the 2004 US TV Movie
"The Butterfly Effect 2" - Part 2 of the 2006 US TV movie
"Butterfly Effect 3: Revelations" - 3rd part of the 2009 US TV movie

music

"Butterfly Effect" - Ukrainian rock band from Cherkasy

Butterfly Effect (disambiguation) is:

Butterfly effect (disambiguation)

Butterfly Effect(English) The Butterfly Effect):

Butterfly effect - a concept from chaos theory
Butterfly Effect - Ukrainian rock band from Cherkasy
The Butterfly Effect is an album by a Portuguese metal band. Moonspell

TV movies:

fantasy / drama

"Butterfly Effect 2"(English) The Butterfly Effect 2) is a 2006 American drama thriller film, a sequel to the 2004 film of the same name. Starring Eric Lively and Erica Durance.

Movie tagline: "Can you change your past without destroying your future?" - "Can you change the past without destroying the future?"

Plot

In a picturesque place in nature, young guy Nick Larson, in the company of his best friends, Amanda and Trevor, is celebrating the 24th birthday of his girlfriend Julia. Suddenly, he is urgently called to work and the whole company returns home. Barely leaving on the highway, due to a broken tire, the car skids. Nick barely manages to avoid an accident, but at this time a huge truck rushes at them ...

After surviving a horrific accident that killed his girlfriend Julie and two friends, Nick has discovered that he has the unique ability to go back in time through photographs and correct events that happen to him and those around him. Nick decides to save his friends and his beloved. At first, abilities help the hero solve all his difficulties, but then their very presence begins to cause difficulties, troubles and anger. And at the end of the picture, the hero begins to realize that everything in life needs to be achieved on his own, no magic or special abilities will benefit him, when you change one thing, everything changes, and after that nothing can be done ...

Cast

Actor Role

The picture was taken in just 20 days.
Nick learns about the pregnancy of the main character only in the last version of the alternative past. In other altered futures, she lost her baby in an accident.

Soundtrack

Tourist - "Do You Feel The Cold"
N. Lannon - "Turn Time Around"
Dave Seaman - "2 Da Groove"
Exit The Ordinary - "The Place You Are"
Exit The Ordinary - "Fly Away"
Exit The Ordinary - "Grey Lines"
Exit The Ordinary - "Here I Am"
Exit The Ordinary - "Here In These Arms"
Exit The Ordinary - "Letting Go"
Exit The Ordinary - "Need To Know"
Exit The Ordinary - «Reflections»
Exit The Ordinary - "This Life"
Genuine Childs - "Orange Sunsets"
Genuine Childs - "Scarface"

In addition, during the love scene between Nick and Julie, a fragment of the theme from the first part called Kayleigh's Funeral.

Criticism

Criticism met the film rather cool. Basically, it was said that the sequel does not add anything new to the subtext of the first picture, but only repeats it with new characters. The plot is not as exciting as in the first picture, as well as the special effects of the picture.

The negative attitude towards the main character was also caused by the fact that he returned in the past to arrange his career, and not his personal life and the happiness of loved ones, as was the case with Evan Treborn. The ending with a hint of a sequel also caused a negative reaction from critics.

Radio wave

Notes

The Butterfly Effect 2 at RottenTomatoes.com

What is the butterfly effect?

blackorange

Butterfly Effect
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This term has other meanings, see Butterfly effect (disambiguation).
The butterfly effect is a term in the natural sciences that denotes a property of some chaotic systems. A small impact on the system can have large and unpredictable effects elsewhere and at other times.
Deterministically chaotic (see deterministic chaos) systems are sensitive to small influences. In a chaotic world, it is difficult to predict what variations will occur at a given time and place, errors and uncertainty build up exponentially over time. E. Lorenz called this phenomenon the butterfly effect: a butterfly flapping its wings in Iowa can cause an avalanche of effects that can culminate in the rainy season in Indonesia (“the butterfly effect” also evokes an association with the plot of the 1952 story by R. Bradbury “And thunder struck ”, where the death of a butterfly in the distant past changes the world of the future). “Small differences in the initial conditions give rise to huge differences in the final phenomenon ... Prediction becomes impossible” (A. Poincaré, after: Horgan, 2001).

For the first time, the "butterfly effect" was described in his story "Thunder Came" by science fiction writer Ray Bradbury. If we go to the distant past and crush a butterfly there, it will lead to catastrophic changes in the future.
The butterfly effect is a term in the natural sciences for a property of some chaotic systems. A small impact on the system can have large and unpredictable effects elsewhere and at other times. In a chaotic world, it is difficult to predict what variations will occur at a given time and place, errors and uncertainty build up exponentially over time. E. Lorentz called this phenomenon the butterfly effect.

How to understand the butterfly effect scientifically???

Assol

It is scientifically calculated that even the flapping of the wings of one small butterfly can set off a tornado on the other side of the world. This has been called the "butterfly effect" and, in essence, metaphorically, but true, reflects the globality of the world.

Butterfly effect - a term that metaphorically reflects the possibility of serious consequences of insignificant and unpredictable events L Ross and R Nisbett explain its origin by referring to the statement of an anonymous meteorologist that a butterfly flapping its wings in Beijing, under certain circumstances, can affect weather that will settle in the western United States in a few days

A researcher dealing with any complex interactive non-linear systems (including those related to the psyche, behavior and social interactions) should be prepared to meet the butterfly effect.

Nastya Tsikunova

Even the flapping of a butterfly's wing on one continent can lead to disaster on another. This means that any change in conditions in one place can cause cardinal changes in another. Maybe not very scientific. well at least somehow

I would say this: a small perturbation can lead to a significant change in the state of the system, transferring it from one state of equilibrium (including dynamic) to another.

But the probability of this is high only if the system "according to this perturbation" turns out to be unstable, that is, the magnitude and "point of application" of the impact will be sufficient. Otherwise, the changes that have arisen in the system will die out sooner or later.

Many people like to delve into their past. This is neither bad nor good, we still cannot change the past. A senseless waste of time, leading to introspection and often self-abasement, which is unhealthy.

Each of us has positive and negative qualities. And among them there are those that we accept and those that we would prefer to get rid of. In other words, there are qualities that we do not even want to admit to ourselves. Life calls to explore and reconcile the opposites in ourselves, and not to try to remove or change them. Understanding and reconciling both sides of his nature, a person becomes a single whole, not in conflict with himself. The task is difficult, it is important not just to recognize the existence of different traits. It is necessary to understand that those traits that you do not approve of are necessary for continued growth.

Opposites are not necessarily good and evil. Opposite features in ourselves, or in another person with whom we are trying to establish a connection, are a mirror image of each other, mutual complement and support. Here you need to achieve unity of these opposites, make them work together, overcome conflicts and create a whole - more than the sum of parts.

The reward for reconciling irreconcilable elements within is an increase in one's own strength and will. No more wasting time and energy on the struggle - always useless! - with those qualities in oneself or others that irritate. Instead, to combine them in oneself and use them to strengthen one's own power over circumstances, situations and events is aerobatics.

Clearly - an example with a butterfly. If you write qualities that, in your opinion, are good on one wing, and bad on the other, you can tear off a bad wing. Butterfly will live, she will even be able to eat, drink, move around, but will she be a whole person? But butterflies can fly...

The most difficult thing is to forgive yourself... To allow yourself to be a man, not a saint!

Accept - Understand - Forgive - Let go. A simple bunch, but it can be very difficult to apply. Accept yourself and your past as fact. To understand that at that moment they behaved this way only because they felt this way, thought this way, and that's all. Forgive yourself and all-all-all the mistakes made. To let go means to change the attitude towards the past (the past itself cannot be changed).

"The past is forgotten, the future is closed, the present is bestowed" - a phrase from a children's cartoon, and in fact, what do we do? We care about what was and what will be, but what are we doing now to improve our lives? Digging for shortcomings? Here are just the qualities they are like a knife: they can be used by holding on to the blade or holding the handle, in which case it is safe and useful.

Only the human mind imposes restrictions, then it was painful and not pleasant. But who came up with the idea that this is how it will always be? The main task is to move, to build our bright, warm, wonderful future right now, and this requires faith.

The best way to develop anything, including faith, is action. It is important to understand that you already have faith. It is impossible to strengthen it, you can only eliminate the restrictions that your mind imposes on it.

If you act on the basis of faith, that is, take risks in spite of your fear and at the same time know that everything will work out, any restrictions will disappear.

65 years ago, Ray Bradbury's short story "And Thunder Came" was published. It described a journey into the distant past, where one of the characters accidentally crushed a butterfly. This led to unpredictable consequences, radically changing the future. In the early 60s of the last century, a young assistant in the department of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Edward Lorenz, received a number of unusual diagrams. Their shape resembled the wings of a butterfly, and a great fan of science fiction, Lorenz, immediately called the pattern he discovered the butterfly effect. It soon became a universal concept, explaining many mysterious phenomena, when insignificant events lead to grandiose consequences, such as typhoons, large-scale epidemics, or the collapse of colossal glaciers from the dome of Antarctica.

Errors of round values

In fact, the butterfly effect is far from being a simple idea that follows from a very complex mathematical theory of chaos. It all started when Lorenz tried to create a set of computer programs that could predict long-term weather changes. Once he did not round off thousandths of meteorological quantities, such as wind strength, humidity and atmospheric pressure. Unexpectedly, this led to a phenomenal result. It turned out that these tiny data changes completely changed the long-term forecast.

For a whole decade, Lorenz worked on his theory, but it became famous thanks to the determination of another meteorologist. In 1972, a prestigious international conference was held, but Lorentz did not have time to present the title of the report. There was no time at all, and this was boldly done by his colleague, giving the work a completely non-academic title “Forecasting: the flapping of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil will cause a tornado in Texas?”. It was from this moment that a heated discussion of the Lorenz butterfly effect began.

In that long-standing work, Lorentz tried to prove that the far-reaching consequences of minor atmospheric anomalies constitute two very interesting problems at once. Firstly, you should not criticize weather forecasts and mock weather forecasters, because it turns out that it is almost impossible to create an accurate long-term weather map. Secondly, in many processes it is simply impossible to "catch a butterfly" and identify the tipping point that leads to the real end result.

Generally speaking, many philosophers are very apprehensive about Lorentz's butterflies, because if small inaccuracies in some natural phenomena are of such great importance, then it can be argued that our world is completely unpredictable in some way...

The birth and death of a tornado

According to the Lorenz diagrams, an incalculable number of natural relationships can not only cause a tornado with a flap of a butterfly's wings, but also extinguish a hurricane in the bud. Thus, if a person intervenes in the surrounding nature, for example, by disturbing the ecological balance, then we are unlikely to ever know for sure what would happen in the alternative scenario “Earth without people”. And all this because all subsequent changes are very difficult to track and restore the sequence of events.

Even during his lifetime, Lorenz sadly noted that most of the climatologists around him perceive his original constructions exactly the opposite. The most important thought in Lorentz's theory is that we just cannot easily track a significant event and its connection with the present. Asserting that the flapping of a butterfly's wings can cause a storm, we must immediately move on to the next question: how can we be sure that this particular atmospheric anomaly caused the birth, and not the death, of a crushing tornado? It turns out that Lorentz's research provides an opportunity to take a fresh look at the problem of cause-and-effect relationships, but does not at all contain simple answers for predicting the future.

Mysteries of the Kitchen of the Weather

As a meteorologist, Lorenz tried to explain many mysteries of the kitchen of the weather with the help of the phenomenon he discovered. In his bold assumption, the cause of the most powerful storms that are born in the Gulf of Mexico may be a small weather anomaly in the South Atlantic.

Already after the death of the scientist in 2008, a number of Latin American weather forecasters tried to connect the butterfly effect with the amazing Pacific El Niño phenomenon. In an incomprehensible way, this periodic atmospheric anomaly somehow affects the birth of devastating tornadoes that bring multibillion-dollar losses to the southern states of the United States.

At the same time, many American conspiracy theorists are simply sure that at the Pentagon's secret training grounds they have long been trying to bring out "meteo butterflies" that can cause storms in various parts of the world. In any case, this could be a real fuse for the hypothetical "climate weapon" that has been talked about a lot lately.

The main parameter here is the hurricane wind as one of the areas of research in atmospheric physics. This science has been trying for many years to predict the trajectories of air vortices, but still cannot predict their strength, and hence the scale of possible destruction.

hurricane equation

For a quarter of a century, meteorologists have been working hard to create reliable computer models of bad weather. The stumbling block here is the so-called hurricane equation, which cannot be solved on the basis of classical ideas about the mechanism of its formation. One can imagine that a powerful hurricane is forming somewhere in the southeastern part of the Caribbean Sea. There, currents of warm and humid air meet with cold winds blowing from the Andes. Intensive condensation of water vapor occurs with the formation of a powerful cloud cover. However, if we try to set all the necessary parameters, we will not be able to determine the course and increase in wind strength. In particular, the calculated wind speed will always be much lower than in reality.

It is well known that the stronger the wind, the more waves on the surface of the water. The waves here act as a natural "roughness" of the water surface, against which the air currents rub. Meanwhile, if we consider the balance between the energy supply and its absorption due to friction, then it turns out that the stronger the wind, the larger this absorption will be. That is, the waves should extinguish the wind, just like in the title of the cult work of the Strugatsky brothers, but in reality this does not happen.

Hypothesis of Russian geophysicists

At the end of the last century, a group of employees of the Department of Nonlinear Geophysical Processes of the Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences from Nizhny Novgorod expressed a very unusual hypothesis. Based on the principles of Lorentz's theory, they suggested that the resistance of the ocean surface paradoxically drops when the wind increases.

Then, in 2003, an article by the American researcher Kerry Emmanuel, describing a similar phenomenon, was published in the journal Nature. In his conclusions, he relied on long-term data on wind speeds inside tropical cyclones using falling GPS probes from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Observing Center. Based on the generalization of the results of these measurements, it turned out that the drag coefficient of the sea surface is much lower than the value obtained in the calculations of ordinary winds.

Russian scientists are studying -butterflies that generate hurricanes" at the unique "Complex of Large-Scale Geophysical Stands" installation, which consists of a pool with a high-speed wind-wave channel. Today, this complex is included in the list of installations of national importance in Russia.

Net for catching "hurricane butterflies"

The experiments of Nizhny Novgorod geophysicists gave amazing results. Using a high-speed video camera that shoots up to half a million frames per second, it was possible to capture the amazing processes of the birth of hurricane butterflies. Thus, an understanding of the mechanism of the occurrence of hurricane winds in the embryo of a storm arose. It became clear that at a certain stage, the air currents of a growing typhoon rush over the waves, like a hydrofoil glider or a colossal ekranoplan. In this case, the mass of air forms above the waves - a foam pillow - from solid lambs, which smooths out the excitement. At the same time, the resistance to air flows over the sea surface drops sharply.

Scientists counted the drops and realized that they had found the most effective mechanism for generating splashes, which greatly changes the pattern of hurricanes. Previously, it was believed that splashes are formed when pop-up bubbles burst and their number is incommensurably smaller. It turned out that if we recalculate the results of the Nizhny Novgorod laboratory experiment for natural conditions, then the formation of hurricane winds becomes clear. Scientists have understood what is an effective mechanism for the supply of energy to the monstrous force of the wind, and came close to predicting the destructive ability of a hurricane.

However, “Lorenz butterflies” were also found in sciences very far from meteorology.

Insects of financial crises

A decade ago, a few enthusiasts from Smartmoney, a virtual club of fans of financial forecasts, started doing market research “according to Lorentz” and immediately caught the “financial crisis butterfly”. It turned out that Sony's growing logistical problems could have a critical impact on a network of shareholders, sellers and investors. Thus, an ominous forecast appeared on the Smartmoney website: “One butterfly, in this case a Japanese butterfly, launches a whole critical process in the global chain of partners.” Unfortunately, no one heeded the unusual opinion of "economic dilettantes". And the crisis of 2008 struck...