"Russia has concentrated about 50 thousand servicemen on the border with Ukraine"; "the separatists want to drag Kiev into a large-scale confrontation in order to then" turn to Russia for help "; "The DPR accused the Ukrainian military of shelling Donetsk, Dokuchaevsk and the village of Krasny Partizan last night" What do these alarming lines of news agencies testify to? This is discussed by a military expert Igor Romanenko(Kiev), Doctor of Political Science Julius Nisnevich(Moscow), social activists Victoria Pridushchenko and Maxim Borodin(both - Mariupol).
Leading - Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr..
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: On Tuesday morning, news reports from news agencies were full of alarming messages: "Russia has concentrated about 50,000 troops on the border with Ukraine"; "The separatists want to drag Kiev into a large-scale confrontation in order to then turn to Russia for help"; "The DPR accused the Ukrainian military of shelling Donetsk, Dokuchaevsk and the village of Krasny Partizan last night."
As evidenced by this information, today we will talk with our guest - Yuli Nisnevich, Doctor of Political Science, Deputy of the State Duma of the first convocation and professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
Yuliy Anatolyevich, how grounded and realistic are these assumptions?
Julius Nisnevich: Predictions of large armed conflicts - I think this is not very realistic. Because a military solution to this problem does not exist on either side today, as I understand it. Rather, this is another aggravation, and it has, in my opinion, quite understandable prerequisites. The next meeting of the contact group is to take place at the end of August. And usually, on the eve of the meetings of the contact group, there are certain aggravations. That is, it is a "diplomatic option". This is apparently a momentary goal.
But there are, in my opinion, two more serious problems. If we pay attention to this, then the whole story with the southeast of Ukraine has recently begun to drop out of the information space. That is, interest in her has dropped sharply. This means that this interest must somehow be supported, somehow stimulated, so that the problem functions. And he disappeared because the process that is taking place there has entered a stage, in my opinion, calmer: Kiev is amending the Constitution (albeit with changes under the influence of the United States and Europe), elections are scheduled.
But one of the most important points of this process is the transfer of the border with Russia under Ukrainian control at the end of 2015. And it seems to me that today neither Russia nor the separatists are interested in this happening. Because if the border is handed over to Ukraine, it will be closed, and the issue of separatism will be resolved rather quickly - I think, without any military efforts. And this process is needed to create conditions for this transfer not to take place.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Let's watch the report of our colleagues from the Reuters agency on the situation in Mariupol.
Correspondent: The suburbs of Mariupol were shelled from artillery all night. On Monday morning, the head of the village of Sartana, Stepan Makhsma, said that there were killed among civilians.
- A massive shelling of the village began. As a result of the shelling, civilians were injured: two died on the spot, six were wounded. To date, 54 houses have been surveyed.
Correspondent: Kiev accused pro-Russian separatists of shelling. According to Ukrainian authorities, a man and a 20-year-old woman were killed. Among the injured are the child and his mother, she is in serious condition. Also reported about casualties among civilians in Horlivka. According to the Security Service of Ukraine, shelling was recorded several times over the past day. Two servicemen were killed.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday: "The increased shelling along the contact line is a sign that Kiev is preparing a new offensive against the separatists."
Ukrainian publications on Monday reported that the "Donbass" battalion, which is now under the control of the National Guard of Ukraine, is returning to the ATO zone near Mariupol.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: We have a direct connection from Mariupol Maxim Borodin, head of the initiative group "Together!"
Maxim, who is to blame for the aggravation of the situation in Mariupol?
Maxim Borodin: It is obvious to us that the shelling was from the so-called "terrorist troops of the DPR". In Mariupol lately it was quiet, there were no movements. What is being commented on in the Russian news that an offensive on the other side is being prepared is complete nonsense! There are no visible preparations for the offensive. The defense is only getting stronger. Now they have changed the troops to the marines, strengthened the defense - this is done only in order to increase the security of the city.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: And who is interested in aggravating the situation?
Maxim Borodin: I think that the aggravation of the situation is due to the fact that Putin is unable to achieve what he wants. We understand very well that the main goal is for these regions - Donbass and Lugansk region - to return to the hands of the "regionals" who have ruled here over the past decade, so that everything will be the same. But the active part of the city understands perfectly well that if we are talking about artificial federalization, then there will be nothing good for Ukraine in this. We will simply return to the swamp in which we lived here for a long time, and we don't even have to think about any changes.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: And now we have in touch from Kiev Igor Romanenko, lieutenant general of the reserve, and in 2006-2010 - deputy chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Igor Alexandrovich, who benefits from escalating the situation around Mariupol?
Igor Romanenko: Over the past two weeks, there have been actions that I regard as reconnaissance in force. These were the events in Marinka, Krasnohorovka, and now, perhaps, in Shirokino. Why is this happening? In fact, three tactical strike groups have been created on the border with Russia. The striking and most powerful is the Donetsk direction, then the Mariupol and Luhansk. And since they are percussion, they are already provided, deployed, the technique is focused, they are ready for action.
And when is the action time? It is known that the last meeting of the trilateral group in Minsk did not achieve results and was actually disrupted. And the question is how and in what sequence to implement the agreements on "Minsk-2". It would be logical if the armed formations were withdrawn, the border was taken under control, so that international observers would be present, and due to the fact that the situation is not military, but more or less democratic, to hold elections so that the elected people in parliament would make changes to the Constitution ... Well, it is clear that the Russian side and the militants do not agree with this sequence. They insist, first of all, on changes in the Constitution, on the definition of the status of the so-called republics, and after that, maybe, everything else. With which, naturally, Ukraine cannot agree. That is, if the rest is not, then both the first and the second will be destroyed. In principle, the majority agrees, although there are also supporters of a military solution in Ukraine, who believe that it is necessary to try to implement the Minsk-2 agreement to the end. I also take this approach. At the same time, we are seriously strengthening our combat potential against the background of all this, because we have previous experience.
In addition, on the 24th we have Independence Day. Last year, on the 23rd of the Russian side, regular units were introduced. Therefore, now we are also preparing for any possible events. The intensification of the actions of divisional and reconnaissance groups is known, and not only along the line of contact, but also in such areas as Kharkov and Odessa. This is our situation now.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: We have Viktoria Pridushchenko, the head of the "Mariupol squad" association, on the line.
Victoria, what can the current tension around Mariupol turn into?
Victoria Pridushchenko: Regarding the tension around Mariupol, we are considering two options: either the Russian Federation is preparing for a direct invasion, or this is another provocation. Or another "cauldron" with the seizure of the territory of Ukraine. That is, the next plan worked out by the Kremlin is being implemented. They are preparing provocations. We know that in Novoazovsk, tanks are being repainted under the blue-yellow Ukrainian symbols, and flags are being hung. There is a lot of intelligence about other provocations as well.
Another provocation and a lie that Ukraine is going to attack. At the moment, I think Ukraine has strengthened very well. And to escalate tensions or conduct some kind of military action now in the center of Europe ... It is clear that we are a peaceful country, and we do not want such a conflict with thousands of deaths. Everyone wants to solve this problem peacefully. But we are not doing very well, because all the agreements that Ukraine proposes, making all the concessions, alas, do not suit the Kremlin.
Today we listened to President Putin's speech in Crimea. He never says that Russian troops and Russian weapons are on the territory of Ukraine. He says that these are the forces of the so-called "militias". He cannot recognize the presence of 10,000 Russian military formations on the territory of Ukraine. And the shelling, including of Sartan, was carried out by the 1st military brigade of the Russian Federation.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Let's hear who the Russian leader blamed for the victims near Mariupol.
Vladimir Putin: Unfortunately, we are witnessing this escalation today. And the blame for this does not lie with the Donbass militia, it is on the opposite side. I hope that it will not come to open, direct large-scale clashes.
As for the Minsk-2 agreement, I believe that there is no other alternative for resolving the situation, and in the end, of course, peace will prevail. Our task is to minimize the losses with which we will come to this world.
The future of Crimea was determined by the people who live in this territory. They voted for reunification with Russia. Everything. Point.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: The data presented by the Russian leader is completely at variance with the data that is presented to us from Mariupol. Yuliy Anatolyevich, does it look like a provocation is being prepared?
Julius Nisnevich: Unfortunately, we quite often hear a lot of information from both sides, which is not confirmed later. Therefore, I am very restrained about such things. While there is no confirmation from several sources, I do not really trust such data. Well, this is an objective reality: when there is a confrontation, the country is engaged in an "information war". But when we analyze the situation, we must try to push back the "information war" so that it does not affect the analysis of the situation. It's quite difficult though.
By the way, Putin's statement contained an unusual wording: "We must come to peace with minimal losses for us." Is it for Russia? Then, in fact, the president just admitted that ...
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: ... Russia is moving towards peace in Ukraine. Maybe he speaks on behalf of all mankind like Mahatma Gandhi?
Julius Nisnevich: I don't think he was speaking on behalf of all of humanity. But this is a very curious formulation.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: And on what data is the information based that 10 thousand Russian troops are concentrated on the territory of the self-proclaimed enclaves?
Maxim Borodin: I think the information that is being voiced was obtained thanks to intelligence. Now there are enough opportunities - both unmanned reconnaissance and reconnaissance groups that have the ability to obtain this data.
No one doubts that there are enough military men on the other side. And we also have no doubts that professionals fired at Mariupol in winter. I was one of those who investigated which side they were shooting from, we published his data. All shells were clearly from the east and from the northeast. But, despite this, Russian propaganda works so seriously, and even after weighty evidence, some people still have doubts: "How could those who promised us prosperity and large pensions shoot at us ?!"
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Could regular Russian troops replace the "vacationers" and "green men"?
Igor Romanenko: They are already there. Well, that's an old story. Remember the war in Spain, when it was impossible to say that these were Soviet pilots, tankers and so on. This continues and is the case here. That is, "hybrid war" is not invented now. The last captured major of the Russian Armed Forces ... This is after the officer and the contract soldier, who are now in the pre-trial detention center, and before that they were in our hospital. Russia does not recognize that these are military personnel. So, the major was carrying ammunition to the front line. He was engaged in the activities in which the missile and artillery armament service is engaged, served in the linear personnel unit of the Russian Armed Forces.
But this does not happen so often, because Russian servicemen occupy leadership positions with the militants. And local militants - no more than 40%. All the rest are so-called "tractor drivers", "miners" and so on, but in fact they are mercenaries or those who supposedly went on vacation. So, on the front line, maybe there are not so many of them, but this is the leadership team. But the second and third lines, where it is necessary, especially for complex equipment and weapons, - a multiple launch rocket system, artillery, missile, anti-aircraft troops, are mainly the Russian military. And the case with the Boeing on the Buk-M1-2, - already by the Dutch and we have shown that we have neither such a Buk-M1-2 complex, nor the Buk missile that shot down the plane. That is, it is a complex type of technique. And the calculation that was there - this "Buk" was delivered a few days ago, and of course, even capable "tractor drivers" and "miners" cannot learn quickly.
Quantitative estimates. We use surveys, including those provided by satellite, we already have our own unmanned aerial vehicles, and we are deploying and learning in this regard, including from Russia. I understand that the data is "plus or minus", but according to the estimates of various experts, not only Ukrainian, but also international, it is about 10 thousand people who are brought into the territory of Ukraine. Plus on the border from the east - there are 40-50 thousand in Crimea. And the situation in Transnistria worsened, since there was an insignificant contingent there, and now mobilization has been announced. That is, it is quite serious. And we somehow need to answer. That is, in fact, a very large sector of the border, starting from the northeast, we have to hold.
At one time, Putin was presented with the words of the Chief of the General Staff that "we have not met with Russian troops on the front lines recently." Because the chief of the General Staff to the diplomatic corps explained this situation to the military, but only this phrase was taken out of context, that the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine almost confirms that Russians have not been seen in the eyes. But in fact, there are two servicemen from the sabotage and reconnaissance group that we have, and the last major, who was carrying ammunition, and the RAV service - this is not somewhere, but in a unit, and he confirms this.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: A sure harbinger of exacerbation is the growth in the number of reconnaissance and sabotage groups. Has the number of so-called "lost" Russian military personnel in the border area increased?
Victoria Pridushchenko: About 15 Russian drones fly around Mariupol every day. We shoot them down - not all of them, of course. These are very powerful and high flying drones - somewhere 3-4 kilometers. Accordingly, reconnaissance groups are included here. And often residents who are in the so-called "gray" zone see these reconnaissance groups walking and working, including on our territory. And disinformation is spread, probably, by very active participants, supporters or agents who are engaged in campaigning work, disinformation and so on on the territory of Ukraine.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Does it look like Ukraine is being taken into a semi-ring, starting from the self-proclaimed enclaves, then to Crimea and to Transnistria?
Julius Nisnevich: Well, this is not entirely true, Ukraine is not being ringed. When all these events began - both in Crimea and in the east of Ukraine - it was clear from military-technical, military-geographical considerations that it was ideal for Russia to sever this part and get a direct corridor to Transnistria. This was said by all military experts, everyone who understood this. The very idea, as you say, of cutting off, in general, from a military-territorial point of view, is understandable. Another question is that Russia does not have any power to solve this problem. Even if we assume that this happens, then it will be necessary to hold a very long border, to defend this enclave from the side of Ukraine. And there are no opportunities for this - neither technical, nor financial, nor human. Therefore, I would not say that Ukraine is surrounded.
As far as I understand, today there is no military solution, and Russia is well aware of this too. You can rattle weapons, you can concentrate the military on the border, but you just need to understand this, and I think that the euphoria has passed in the Russian leadership. God forbid there will be some kind of provocation, relatively speaking, in Mariupol - tomorrow there will be such sanctions against the Russian economy that no one needs in Russia today. We must not forget that there is another side to this conflict - the European Union, the United States, and in general a huge number of states that are ready to take very active, naturally non-military measures against Russia, and they have demonstrated this. And the threat to Russia objectively exists. And no matter how our propaganda tells us that sanctions are nothing to us, look at the latest data on the Russian economy, on import substitution, the latest reports that we have a "Sukhoi Superjet", in my opinion, is starting to stop, because there are no components that should come from other countries. That is, this mechanism really exists, and it is very effective.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: On Russian TV channels they show that the sixth wave of mobilization into the Ukrainian army has collapsed and failed. Is there such a wave? Maybe there is a call-up "under arms" of all who have not yet been mobilized?
Maxim Borodin: There is no conscription. There are even situations when there are volunteers who want to get into the service, but due to bureaucracy, they cannot go through all the procedures quickly enough. Of course, there is a certain part of people who are not ready to fight, and there is no getting away from this, it exists in any country. Another question is that there are military men with whom our friends, volunteers, who are tired, communicate. But even those who are tired are still ready to stand to the last. And in the face of a real threat, these people are ready to mobilize and again defend our cities, including Mariupol. That is, the stories that someone is tired of defending Mariupol, someone wants to give up everything ... Even if there is an order to retreat, no one will carry it out.
Julius Nisnevich: The fact is that when there is a confrontation between the armed forces, when people with weapons stand for a very long time, serious problems begin if they do not take part in active actions. But if there can be rotation from the Ukrainian side, as we have heard, then there is no rotation from the separatists. And people with a gun who do nothing in the trenches are very dangerous. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain their fighting spirit all the time, otherwise decomposition begins and so on. By the way, this is one of the laws of war. Therefore, this aggravation, perhaps, precisely in order to maintain the fighting spirit of those separatists who stand along the line of separation.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: There was a lot of talk about the fact that the Western allies want to supply the Ukrainian army with non-lethal weapons. But lethal weapons were never discussed. Are you currently re-equipping with the latest models?
Igor Romanenko: First, I would like to say a few words about mobilization. We now have three categories of military personnel. Young people are called up for military service, but they do not serve in the area of the ATO. We protect our youth as the future. But they perform internal functions, including on calm borders, and after a year and a half they will quit. About those waves about which you asked the question. Yesterday we ended the sixth wave of mobilization - these are servicemen for a year who are trained, performed tasks in the ATO. And after a year it is necessary to rotate. So, the next waves, including the sixth, were just in order to rotate those who served a year in the ATO area. And finally, contract soldiers are mainly in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they are officers. And in view of what the war has shown now, we are starting a process, I think that it will develop further, because several presidents and prime ministers have tried to do this - the formation of a contract army. It is most effective from all points of view, primarily from the military, from the economic.
With regard to weapons. Indeed, unfortunately for Ukraine, non-lethal weapons are still being provided: location complexes, reconnaissance equipment, mobility equipment. This is the weapon we need and need. But due to the fact that serious armored vehicles have been imported from the Russian side, we need anti-missile systems. Since the enemy has a great advantage in aviation, we need anti-aircraft weapons, and there are serious problems here. Although it is said, and the allies have repeatedly confirmed this, that if serious actions begin, in particular an attempt to seize Mariupol or break through a corridor to Crimea, then such weapons will be provided to Ukraine.
In the meantime, we are engaged in the restoration of our equipment, modernization and development of new weapons, which require a lot of money and time. But the war teaches us to do this, and we are doing this.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Are there enough forces and means concentrated in the Mariupol area to repel a possible attack by the strike group that General Romanenko said about?
Victoria Pridushchenko: I think that's enough. Volunteer battalions are brought up quite close, they are practically on the second line. So in case there is an offensive, they are ready, they are close by.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Can the world community hit the Russian banking system and cancel SWIFT?
Julius Nisnevich: Of course it can. And one of the ideas that came up when we discussed the next wave of sanctions: now you can take out a loan for 90 days (if my memory serves me right), then it is necessary to reduce the time of loans, and then Russian enterprises and banks will not have enough working capital. There, as far as I understand, a set of measures has been developed, and these are measures against the financial system, and against the Russian energy complex, and against the defense complex. And if threats from Russia start - the concentration of weapons and so on - then from the side of the European Union they immediately say: "Guys, if you take a step, we will hit you with sanctions." That is, a symmetrical opposition really exists.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Do you associate the depletion of the budget and the Russian treasury with military spending?
Julius Nisnevich: Undoubtedly. I have a complete feeling that the decision with the Crimea was absolutely spontaneous. It was an ill-conceived idea, and the consequences were not calculated. And then these consequences were superimposed on the fall in oil prices - and the Russian budget began to collapse.
By the way, the problem is with the east of Ukraine. If for some time a "frozen" conflict is still possible for Ukraine, then this "frozen" conflict for Russia means that it is necessary to feed another 2 million people from the Russian budget. But there is no money. Therefore, Russia is at a certain impasse. 2 million need to be fed in Crimea, and we know that this is one of the most subsidized regions. And now you will get another 2 million from the conditional republics. Moreover, of these 2 million, there is practically no able-bodied population left. The entire working-age population either partially left for Russia or Ukraine. There were left disadvantaged people who could not feed themselves. And today this is another additional responsibility of the Russian budget, which is constantly being cut, and this will not end well.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: And what is the economic situation in Mariupol now?
Maxim Borodin: The situation here is twofold. On the one hand, there are two large city-forming enterprises in the city. There was also Azovmash, but it is now practically at the stage of liquidation, since at one time it was not diversified, but was tied to Russia. And now they are reaping the fruits of such decisions. And two other large enterprises - Azovstal and the Ilyich Metallurgical Plant - are now operating normally. There are minor problems with the supply of raw materials, but, in principle, the pipes are smoking, work is underway. That is, the main city-forming enterprises fill the budget.
The main issue is, of course, small business. A large number of businessmen from Donetsk and Luhansk moved here. But in moments of aggravation, which were in winter, most of these people left for Dnepropetrovsk, in Nikolaev. But as soon as stability begins, as soon as the shelling stops, business revives, the city returns to normal life, and the rhythm is felt. And as soon as the hostilities begin, everything calms down, and there is a tendency that part of the business is slowly leaving. Therefore, first of all, we need stability and a very strong defense - this is a guarantee that business will develop, and people will come here.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: As a rule, the separatists or those behind them count on a "fifth column" in those places where they intend to advance. Do they have the right to make such a stake in the Mariupol region?
Igor Romanenko: In the eastern and southern regions there is a part of the population that sympathizes with Russia to one degree or another. Moreover, in Donbass we see how the events took place. There were also adherents of Russia there, some of them took up arms - and we have the consequences that we have. So in the southern and eastern regions - Kharkov, Odessa, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev - and sabotage groups are trying to work, and their representatives are trying to find support, to carry out sabotage and campaigning work. But compared to what it was a year ago in those areas that are now occupied, this is significantly different. That is, the majority of the population of Ukraine, including the eastern and southern regions, is in favor of peace on this land and throughout Ukraine. And we will prove the viability and our new prospects, defend them through social and economic reforms. We hope so, we are working on it. But all this, of course, is hampered by the war that must be overcome, which is what the peoples of Ukraine are doing now.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Is the escalation of the "information war" felt on the part of the eastern neighbor?
Victoria Pridushchenko: Of course, the escalation is felt, but not to the same extent. Ukraine is slowly but surely moving towards victory through the efforts of all its people.
The general said that it would be very difficult to hold the borders, and Putin still manages to hold the territories. And not everyone already feels sympathy for Russia. In Mariupol, there was a change in perception and worldview. Those people who hesitated are now more on the Ukrainian side, seeing stability and how the Ukrainian government is still pursuing its policy on the sly. And we are moving forward and doing everything that is possible and impossible. We have a very strong volunteer movement, this is an active part of the Ukrainians. There was an ignition of the Maidan, and now there is a continuation. That is, people work sparing no effort: everything for the front, everything for victory.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: August 24 will be the Independence Day of Ukraine. Will the separatists or those behind their backs try, like last year, to disrupt and ruin this holiday?
Julius Nisnevich: I think it is already impossible to disrupt the holiday, because the situation throughout Ukraine has seriously changed in relation to what it was a year ago. Well, there will probably be some attempts. In my opinion, the mood has seriously changed, and the pro-Russian trend, of course, has significantly faded.
But I would urge my colleagues not to build illusions. The rise caused by the confrontation with Russia will also tend to fade. And if the government, the leadership of Ukraine cannot solve the problems of reforms, cannot change the socio-economic atmosphere, then no ideological considerations of patriotism "all for victory" will last long, one should not count on it. The idea of independence should be based not on "hurray-patriotism", but on socio-economic power. And today, it seems to me, Ukraine has very serious problems not only of a military confrontation, but also a serious internal problem. Whether the current Ukrainian government is capable of moving from that "dead center" of oligarchic governance that was in Ukraine is the second key problem for Ukraine, in addition to the confrontation with the separatists.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Maxim, how is the Independence Day traditionally held in your city?
Maxim Borodin: Indeed, there are now two fronts in Ukraine. One front is an external war with the aggressor, and the second front is an internal war with the system, which is still very strong, because there are attempts by the central government to play a compromise with those people who have been playing and continue to play all the time on the territory of Donbass. into their games. And all the changes rest on the activists and due to the fact that there is pressure from the West, which requires the reforms that we want. We understand perfectly well that there are no longer those resources that were before, in order to continue to consume them. Either now we will change the situation in the country, or we will lose the country. Therefore, it is now very important to win on the home front.
As for the situation with the celebration. Nothing has been announced in advance. But I think that the question here is not about some pretentious events. Now in Mariupol, despite its martial law, there are a lot of musicians, performers and other creative personalities, exhibitions are held. That is, on the one hand, there is horror in what is happening around, but, on the other hand, it attracted attention to Mariupol, and now it has become a kind of center for attracting people. Well, any bad side has its own little positives. Despite the last shelling, now the city is calm, confident that it is reliably protected, and no one is going to surrender it.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Can any kind of international assistance or mediation defuse the situation? For example, the mediation of the OSCE mission.
Igor Romanenko: Unfortunately, the work of this mission is largely disappointed. For example, shelling is carried out at night when the OSCE is not working, as they say, for security reasons. In addition, the facts have repeatedly taken place that strikes were struck in some areas where our troops were stationed after the departure of the OSCE group.
We know that Russia, as a state and a military structure, has a very serious representation in the OSCE. Since Soviet times, intelligence officers have used all the possibilities - trade missions, Aeroflot, and so on. This includes Russia's large financial participation in the OSCE. Therefore, we understand that the work is not necessarily going on with the Russians, but, unfortunately, they also combine work with such activities. And first of all, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the civilian population, pay very seriously for this.
Therefore, alternatives are being sought, but so far this is quite difficult. That is, I would like to bring in some kind of international troops that would be more effective. But Russia has representatives in the main governing structure of the UN. She also proved herself in the Boeing tribunal. It is very difficult to do this under the auspices of the UN. And then these peacekeepers will have a different status. Let's just say that some work is being done to find alternatives. Moreover, even if these issues were resolved, they are resolved according to the procedure within six months. And we should have done it yesterday. We have quite a lot of evidence of all this, but all this is difficult to implement. Therefore, we have to put up with the only instrument that exists so far - the OSCE, and work with them both in the trilateral "Minsk" group and in the ATO region.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: And which of the international structures has not yet lost confidence, like the OSCE? Who could mediate a peaceful settlement?
Victoria Pridushchenko: Indeed, the OSCE has failed its mission. Some missions were successful and some were failed. So, in Ukraine, I think the OSCE mission has failed. And for some reason all countries forget about the Budapest Memorandum. That is, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons, but received nothing in return. That is, if we had nuclear weapons now, we would hardly have had this problem and this situation.
And I also want to say that people have changed, they have become active. Society began to change. We began to participate more in life, in reforms, in changes and some kind of action. Our government has a pro-Western style of reform. We are walking slowly, it is hard for us, but we are moving towards this.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: The August revolution began 24 years ago, and all its participants believed that the "prison of peoples" - the Soviet Union, would fall, and Russia and Ukraine would be fraternal countries. At what point did this vector break and turn into aggression, into the restoration of imperial traditions?
Julius Nisnevich: The fact is that the so-called "uprising of the Soviet masses" took place in the Soviet Union. That is, a huge potential social energy burst out, but due to the fact that it was not of a very high level, let's say, legal, political, and so on, then a well-known mechanism that was described by Jose Ortega y Gasset was triggered: when the masses they want something, they want it all at once. And since they themselves do not want to do anything, the state remains the only instrument for them. And they begin to demand from the state that it should solve all the problems. This is where the turning point is. By the way, Jose Ortega y Gasset in his famous work "The Rise of the Masses", describing this situation, writes: "A mass state is emerging - a state designed for a faceless mass." And he immediately gives a wonderful example - this is Mussolini, fascist Italy. The idea is the same: everything for the sake of the state, nothing but the state. And in the post-Soviet space, in most post-Soviet republics, this is exactly what happened - a statist state appeared in which citizens believe that the state owes them everything. And then the state, due to the specifics of this institution, becomes tough, demanding everything for itself, such a Moloch that devours the human community. Some republics, due to certain things, managed to break out of this, for example, the Baltic states. Some steps towards breaking away from this system were made by Molodova, Georgia. Ukraine tried to do this several times, and now it is again at this crossroads. And all the other republics live in this state.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: What events can be expected in the coming days? What scenarios can the situation around Mariupol develop?
Igor Romanenko: A day ago, there was a reconnaissance in force of the strike group, which was formed nearby. The same actions were taken in other areas. And by the Independence Day, we expect serious provocations. They, I think, will not be above the tactical level, but at this level - perhaps because Putin and this leadership are aimed at such steps. Moreover, he is an "old KGB player", and there such approaches were very widespread, and therefore we expect this. But I don’t think so for them to develop into something more widespread. There are definitely no forces for full-scale operations. Although potentially Russia has such forces throughout its territory. But this requires some time, that is, several weeks, for them to be collected, concentrated, appropriate groupings formed and applied in Ukraine. Which is unlikely given the conditions that exist.
Therefore, despite the fact that the situation on the contact line has recently deteriorated, that is, the degree and level of hostilities has increased approximately to the level of conducting hostilities in the Debaltsevo area, I still look into the future with a little optimism, I do not expect the deployment of these actions to the operational level, not to mention strategic. And I hope that by the fall the military-political and military-economic issues will play a big role.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: And the fact that Victoria regrets that Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons ...
Julius Nisnevich: These are emotions.
Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Yes, these are emotions. And I understood from the mood of Maxim and Victoria that the population of Mariupol is ready to repel provocations and took all precautions. Let's see how the situation will develop. And of course, the Russian leader’s visit earlier this week to the severed peninsula added tensions between Moscow and Kiev.
Maksim Borodin spoke about what priority tasks will be solved by the "Power of People" in the Mariupol City Council
The results of exit polls after the closure of polling stations in the elections in Mariupol were somewhat unexpected. According to them, two parties are elected to the city council - the predictably Opposition Bloc with a score of 66.5%, and the second place is taken by the Power of People party, for which 10.5% of voters voted. The first number on her list - Maxim Borodin - took, according to exit polls, the second place among the contenders for the post of mayor of Mariupol. He began his public activity with the organization of environmental rallies. After the results of the exit polls were announced, Maxim Borodin gave a blitz interview to RBC-Ukraine. It should be noted that earlier RBC-Ukraine talked to the candidate for the post of the mayor of Mariupol Vadim Boychenko, who is the leader in the polls.
The results of exit polls after the closure of polling stations did not turn out to be somewhat unexpected. According to them, two parties are elected to the city council - the predictably Opposition Bloc with a score of 66.5%, and the second place is taken by the Power of People party, for which 10.5% of voters voted. The first number on her list - Maxim Borodin - took, according to exit polls, the second place among the contenders for the post of mayor of Mariupol. He began his public activity with the organization of environmental rallies. After the results of the exit polls were announced, Maxim Borodin gave a blitz interview to RBC-Ukraine. It should be noted that earlier RBC-Ukraine talked to the candidate for the post of the mayor of Mariupol Vadim Boychenko, who is the leader in the polls.
RBC-Ukraine: How satisfied are you with the election results, especially if you compare your resources with those of your opponents?
Maxim Borodin: First, there are no results yet. We have only a preliminary exit poll, the quality of which has big questions.
I am surprised at the result of the "Opposition Bloc". Even though a lot of elderly people voted for them, I have not seen such a huge support for this political force. I think, in fact, more different parties should go to the City Council, and not just us.
Our real result will not globally differ from the exit polls data. Simply, if at some point the stake was placed not on "Our Land", but on us, and really helped a little with a resource, then we could take 35%. It all came down to a limited resource. We did it, in comparison with our opponents, for ridiculous money. It was just that creativity was connected as much as possible, there was a personal resource - walking, winding kilometers, meeting with voters. That is, the whole emphasis was on meetings with voters, as it works in the European system.
Unfortunately, in Metinvest (according to exit polls, according to the results of the elections for the post of mayor of Mariupol, Vadim Boychenko, Director of Human Resources and Social Affairs of the Ilyich Iron and Steel Works, part of the Metinvest holding of Rinat Akhmetov, is in the lead - ed. .) was a crazy resource. It is impossible to surpass tens, hundreds of millions of hryvnias even with the greatest creativity in this situation. For the most part, people were simply bribed. We understand what a disastrous situation people have been in here thanks to the same Party of Regions for years. And now, when the situation in the country has worsened, it is not so difficult to "buy" a person.
RBC-Ukraine: Are you talking about direct or indirect bribery?
Maxim Borodin: It turns out that about the indirect. If it was direct, there would be criminal cases. When we talk about Vadim Boychenko, we mean Metinvest. Nobody hides it. When we say "Oppoblok" we mean "Metinvest". If there were no distribution of "medals", cakes, benches, playgrounds - the result would be completely different. But, unfortunately, it is enough for the hungry to offer food for him to make a certain choice.
RBC-Ukraine: How was your election campaign financed? How much do you rate it?
Maxim Borodin: Part of it was financed from personal funds, most of it was fundraising. That is, people who trusted me simply transferred 50, 100, 1000 hryvnias to the card before the start of the campaign. And we have raised this amount openly. People continued to help when they saw that we were reporting. According to the latest figures, about 75 thousand UAH were spent in total.
RBK-Ukraine: What points of your program will you defend in the City Council in the first place?
Maxim Borodin: First of all - the issue of installing heat meters in homes. We proposed this back in June at the first meetings of the executive committee, but we were not heard. A stake was made on mini-projects, which are now being implemented, but at the same time very slowly - there is really a lot of bureaucracy. In my house, in "Khrushchev", I pay monthly for 45 sq. M. m of area - about 1 thousand hryvnia, because the heat meter was simply not installed on time.
In addition, we will raise questions about simplifying the document circulation system at city council meetings, so that people have full access to documents, the backstage will disappear. We want residents to understand what the budget is, where it is spent, and what the money is spent on. And the "Opposition Bloc" will have to agree with this, even though they will have a majority in the City Council.
This is an innovation for Mariupol - in all normal cities all these things have long been implemented. Despite the fact that we will be a minority, we will make those things that will satisfy the public demand "we want to change." Most will have to accept them. If they don't, they will simply lose support.
RBC-Ukraine: Still, to promote your program ideas, you will need to come to an agreement with the Opposition Bloc. How are you going to find a compromise?
Maxim Borodin: All issues that are in the interests of the community, we will bring up for public discussion. And let our opponents come to terms with people. People will come under the same city council and support our initiatives. Let them talk to people and tell them that they do not want to support issues that are important for citizens.
RBC-Ukraine: Aren't you afraid of conflicts? After all, in this case, the "Opposition Bloc" can also bring its people to a rally under the building of the City Council?
Maxim Borodin: The electorate of the "Opposition bloc" is mostly unmotivated and inactive people. They are ready to support some kind of leader in whom they see the breadwinner. But when at the sessions questions concerning, among other things, their interests are raised, and the Opposition Bloc says that it does not matter, we will receive the support of these people. And we will not be hindered by the fact that we are in the minority - we managed to push through initiatives without having a single deputy in the city council.
RBC-Ukraine: How?
Maxim Borodin: We made Andrey Feday, who is also a member of the same "Oppoblok", to publish draft decisions on time - 21 days before the session. We forced to publish the transcripts of the City Council meetings after our statements to the prosecutor's office. We were forced to provide us with the regulations, and publish all information in accordance with the law "On Access to Public Information". That is, now they began to receive answers to requests, which previously could not be achieved. We have achieved the publication of the decisions of the mayor. Previously, it was secret - they were published a year later. Even without authority, we forced to do it.
RBC-Ukraine: At one of the polling stations, a voter who voted for your party explained his choice by the fact that there are no people with a tarnished reputation in your team. Can you guarantee that such people won't show up?
Maxim Borodin: Even Sberbank cannot guarantee, as they said in the USSR. In fact, the norms of the law that have now been introduced allow filtering after a year. Everyone understands perfectly well that being a deputy in this situation is, in fact, a social activity. Nobody pays salaries to Mariupol deputies. If someone has any weakness, he will not be able to withstand the test of money, then we undertake to publicly withdraw this person. We told all our voters: if we turn out to be scoundrels, then next time, please do not choose us.
Interviewed by Sergey Lefter
Mariupol deputy Maxim Borodin won the All-Ukrainian project "New Leaders"
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Deputy of the Mariupol mountains. advice from the "Power of People" Maxim Borodin took 1st place in the "New Leaders" project. In the final, which was broadcast on Thursday on the ICTV channel, his project "Fighting Industrial Pollution of Cities" took first place, ahead of the other two finalists. “We have not just a program for all good versus all bad, but a specific strategy. How, on the one hand, to strengthen the capabilities of Mariupol activists, and on the other hand, to provide an opportunity to resist the giants of industrial pollution in Zaporozhye and Kryvyi Rih, "Borodin wrote in his Facebook before the final.
According to the results of the audience vote, the Mariupol resident received the greatest support - 46%. Although, during the SMS voting, many residents of our city complained about problems with sending messages - the system did not want to count their vote.
Now the winner will receive UAH 1 million in order to implement his project, namely, to install gas analyzers at each large emission source. It is planned to spend 700 thousand UAH on programs in Mariupol, 300 thousand UAH - in Zaporozhye and Krivoy Rog.
The main focus of the Mariupol deputy on the New Leaders was public control over the activities of enterprises that pollute the ecology of Ukraine. Even before winning the project, Borodin said that one of these days he will go to the Czech Republic to study foreign experience in the fight for the environment. He noted that there he plans to gain additional experience of influencing pollutants and understand how to change in detail the regulatory authorities and legislation of Ukraine.
Interestingly, environmental activists in Mariupol have been repeatedly accused of political PR. To which they replied that ecology is a common problem for all Ukrainians. “Thanks to everyone who supported Borodin, regardless of the political coloring. Ecology and our survival in Mariupol are out of politics ", wrote Valeriy Averyanov in the Facebook group" For ecologically clean Mariupol ".
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Maxim Borodin: Against the background of the preliminary discussion of the commissions, regulations and the composition of the executive committee with representatives of the Opposition Bloc and Nashei Krai, the impressions are not very pleasant. Vadim Boychenko & Co. they are trying to stomp along the road of Yanukovych with a firm gait. He also told us all for a long time that building a rigid vertical of power for ourselves is not usurpation, it is for the good! How these "good intentions" ended for all of us, for Ukraine and for Yanukovych, everyone knows. It seems to be a good example and very fresh, but it does not reach managers-managers. You have a majority in the city council, you have your own mayor, you appoint heads of utilities without coordination with other political forces. And here's the final chord: you want a fully controlled majority in EXECUTIVE! For an ostracism, you give the go-ahead to several representatives of the Public Council, who, with a total of 15 members of the executive committee, do not influence anything. No, guys, this is not "we have taken full responsibility for the city, so we have the right to shape everything for ourselves." This is usurpation. And you are putting us in a position of complete confrontation, instead of making the executive committee a counterweight to your domination in most of the local government. After all, even if you imagine that members of the executive committee, independent of you, will begin to sabotage the adoption of really necessary decisions, you can always turn the tide through the decision of sessions. But no, you are used to banging your head against the wall, where you can just knock on the door. The situation in 2012 with the sinter plant is an excellent example of this. Then you, too, could make concessions in the summer and then have crazy support from residents, but a condescending attitude towards the community ultimately gave a serious reputational blow to the company. But back to the executive committee. Our political force does not claim to dominate the executive committee or generally to receive any seats - we will be satisfied with one person out of 10 or 15 members of the executive committee. The only question is that other people should be INDEPENDENT FROM YOU. They can be creative people - artists, representatives of Izolyatsia, representatives of business not connected with factories, volunteers ... I can name the names and believe me, these are not odious characters at all. These people will not "out of principle" not make decisions in the interests of Mariupol residents, do not hesitate. But they can definitely become that restraining factor that will not allow YOU to fall into the abyss from the feeling of omnipotence. And further. It's time for Vadim Boychenko to "cut the umbilical cord" between the plant. It is necessary to choose - either he is the mayor, who should be among his voters and not hide behind the guards, or he is just a representative of the factories who are brought to show on the show. You can't be "a little pregnant" and you can't be a "dumb city head". And the press service of Metinvest should not become part of the press service of the city executive committee. Caesar's Caesar ... I really don't want to go into the phase of confrontation, but they are pushing us hard.
Maxim Borodin, activist of the Stop Smog! Environmental movement and the community "Give oxygen!" ".
"I can say about one positive moment - finally, on some local channels, stories about the military began to appear, where they are shown as normal and ordinary people, which immediately reduces the demonization created by the Russian media." - says Maxim.
But at the same time, stories about the atrocities of the Ukrainian military are constantly circulating among the population of Mariupol. Figures and witnesses in these stories are often a "friend of an acquaintance" or "a loader told the story", but there are also more real characters who talk about the use of alcohol by the military at checkpoints, about biased and rude attitude, about carelessness when handling weapons.
"Everyone who knows me can confirm that I am one of those who, from the moment of the first checkpoints, explained to everyone who doubted the need to find them there. And that these people are our friends and defenders, and not bloodthirsty "Banderas" who came to mock civilians - I have said and will continue to say. And like the very beginning, I will help to the best of my ability.
Even now I have no doubt that most of the defenders are sincere and normal patriots. But as elsewhere, there are scoundrels who cast a shadow on everyone. And, first of all, it is in the interests of the military to publicly deal with every incomprehensible case involving the military. There will be no trust and support from residents - that's it, you can pack your things and leave your posts, the rear will be full of holes!
I understand in what constant stress the military is and in what conditions they have to keep the defense, and we all, together with the volunteers, have done and are doing everything necessary to facilitate their service to the people of Ukraine. But they should also understand what mistakes or deliberate violations of the law on their part can cost, in such difficult cities as Mariupol, when the heads of many are poisoned by propaganda. You cannot give even the slightest reason for the emergence of new rumors, no matter how difficult it is. And if an offense is revealed, the perpetrators must be punished and this must be voiced in the information space.
In case of violation of legal procedures, one cannot refer to the fact that the "separatists" are doing the same thing. This is what makes us different from them. No matter how difficult it is, we need to move into the legal field where possible and show by our example that we are moving not towards the Makhnovshchina, but towards the legal field. I don't see any other way. If anyone has other ideas for solving the situation - voice them."
