Igor Yakovenko: The Putin regime has actually died, but in Russia there is no one to bury it
As we approach October 17, the words and actions of the inhabitants of the Kremlin and other government offices become increasingly filled with fear. It may seem strange that adults can believe in all sorts of numerology and other devilry. But if your head of administration invents a magic nooscope that controls the future, and human rights are managed by an aunt who devoutly believes in telegony, you will certainly be wary evil eye, the number thirteen, and even the centenary anniversary of the largest national history You will fear a coup like a monkfish and an angel of the sea.
When Putin was introduced to these two cute mollusks at a meeting of the Russian Geographical Society and explained that one of them was eating the other, the Russian President immediately announced that he himself was a sea angel, since he “has to watch all the time so that no one eats us.” This Putin reprise was undoubtedly just as homemade as Putin’s sudden discovery of antique amphorae during his first scuba dive. More importantly, this rehearsed line reveals a real sense of constant danger. Any meeting of the Russian authorities on any issue, even the most distant from security problems, is sure to erupt with fear of the collapse of the regime.
The Putin regime will fall by 2018, - Russian journalist
4.07.2016 20:32Russian authorities They are going to sequester the budget in the fall of 2016. The minister announced this economic development RF Alexey Ulyukaev. According to him, we're talking about on the adoption of amendments to the budget law, which will legalize the underpayment of 10% of the limit of budget obligations. According to the minister, the gap between projected budget revenues and real ones reached 12%, or 1.1 trillion rubles. Russian journalist and blogger Alexander Sotnik spoke about how this threatens the Russian economy and what events to expect next in this regard.
It is known that before death you won’t inhale, and before the inevitable collapse you won’t steal or steal. And time is running out, and resources are the last, and you have to catch a lot, but not miss that last moment, followed by an irreversible fall into the abyss.
According to the latest data published in " Nezavisimaya Gazeta"Russia's Reserve Fund may be exhausted already in the first half of 2017. The government is spending it at a rate of more than 2 trillion rubles. in year. And by January 2017, only 0.9 trillion rubles will remain in the fund. True, there is also the National Welfare Fund, and according to expert Andrei Illarionov, the money (and in total - about $400 billion) will be enough for another 7 years for the undivided triumph of Putinism.
Before drawing any conclusions, let's take a look at the domestic Russian political landscape. Against the backdrop of unprecedented theft by officials throughout the country, there is severe pressure on citizens: from television propaganda of revanchism and isolationism to direct threats and real attacks from Putin’s security forces and their henchmen, as well as the fabrication of criminal cases with the subsequent imprisonment of active and rebellious people. The current Kremlin is no longer the same as it was in 2007. Then the regime seemed “white and fluffy”: oil was expensive, money flowed like a river, the population was swimming in investments and loans, and even the notorious issue of maintaining a group of security officers at the helm of power was resolved with an “innocent castling”. True, even then in society, which had not yet been completely rolled into asphalt, vague sentiments were wandering: “If only Medvedev - the one for whom freedom is better than lack of freedom - would take the plunge and remove this Putin.” There were conversations in all seriousness that “there can only be one tsar, and Medvedev will not tolerate Putin for long, which will inevitably lead to his resignation, just give him time to make such a decision.” Almost no one considered the option of a “chekist scam,” and yet Medvedev in his “St. Petersburg” period was the “decider” and the “spreader.” They say he cheated professionally and harshly. And this time he just as professionally “tricked the Russians like rabbits.” And after a 4-year period of political “losing of the fraters,” he, according to the agreement reached initially, returned the chair he had heated to the “national dealer.” This “divorce” resonated with indignation in society, which did not want the return of our security officer “Godzilla”. A special operation to firmly retain power became inevitable. Since the “third coming of Vovochka” the point of no return has been passed. The Kremlin has headed for a violent confrontation with its own population, flooding Moscow with police and divisions of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, almost with armored vehicles.
A cleanup operation began in May 2012 civil society, as a result of which it was completely defeated: someone left the protest, someone sat down, someone chose to evacuate from Russia. This stage lasted almost two years - until historical events on Maidan in Kyiv.
What happened in Ukraine gave Putin a natural impetus to tighten the screws even more. In the face of the exiled Yanukovych, he saw himself. And this reflection is not the worst thing, considering the death experience of the overthrown Gaddafi. The rush to Crimea for some time brought part of the population into a state of unjustified euphoria, splitting Russians into two parts: “Crimean Nazis” and principled opponents of the “Sudeten revenge”, who saw in it a monstrous trap - both for the Kremlin itself and for the whole country, which, of course, is more important than the survival of the aggressive clan of security officers. And if the former had carefree fun, surrendering to emotions mixed with imperial nostalgia for the USSR that had sunk into oblivion, the latter tried to reach them through disputes at small pickets and demonstrations in the form of the “Peace March” - the last event of many thousands, held on September 21, 2014 in Moscow . Unfortunately, the television majority never listened to the voice of reason of the “insignificant minority” and obediently followed Putin’s lies like a donkey after a carrot. And then the shoots of “revanchism” emerged. They turned out to be bitter. Sanctions from the EU and the US hit every Russian. A narrowing range of goods and a decline in the quality of products, inflation and increased tariffs on everything and everyone, layoffs and unemployment - all these are “flowers” that bloomed under the banner of “Putin’s great victories.” This beauty comes in the form of Sobyanin’s “grabs” - the “Night of Long Buckets”, and the “great tiled expansion of sidewalks”, and the escalation of isolationist sentiments: “there are enemies all around, it’s dangerous everywhere, terrorists are roaming everywhere”...
Having failed in the Donbass with the idea of a “Russian world,” Putin and his crowd turned the vector of using terror from the external “front” to the internal one. Unlike citizens, who are ordered to fill their heads with false and ordered “opinion poll results” with crazy “percentages of support for the authorities,” Lubyanka’s pupils have a real picture of “anti-rating”, and it scares them. The Chekists know: if the seedlings of popular discontent are not weeded out now (and they themselves threw these grains - through total theft and unbridled violence) - the heated and sealed cauldron will inevitably explode.
Since 2016, Putin has set a course for an extremely tough retention of power in the face of dwindling internal resources. There is nowhere to borrow money, and the newly made “friends” in the person of Mugabe will also not give it due to the lack of such. The Chinese, if they meet Putin, look at him with a wild squint: “A thief has again come to us from Russia without the necessary hole in his forehead. How to talk to him, a despicable person? What documents should I sign? Unless - the Agreement on the surrender of Russian territories to us ... "
In conditions of isolation, Putin was even forced to make peace with Erdogan, an obnoxious kid like himself. Supplies of products from Turkey and easing tensions in the tourism business will temporarily reduce the heat inside the “cauldron,” but not for long. And then - autumn and winter. It is necessary to repay debts that are not subject to restructuring; we will have to sequester the budget again, cutting the already castrated “social services”. And here the only hope is for the Russian Guard, which has already been allowed to shoot, strangle and chop anyone who dares to open their mouth in the heat of discontent. There is also the as yet unsigned “Yarovaya package”, hatched in the depths of the Putin administration. And Putin will certainly sign it, declaring the entire population of Russia extremists.
The last refuge of Kremlin terrorists - nuclear weapon, inherited from the collapsed USSR. No one knows in what conditions it was stored all this time, and whether it is really capable of “fighting.” This is Putin’s “Joker” on the political table. It is convenient to twirl it in your hands and wink at your Western “partners”, from time to time including your favorite blackmail. According to the security officer, this “retribution card” should keep the West from taking decisive action if the Kremlin begins to openly feed on human flesh, turning on the “green light” to outright terror inside Russia. And this road is already being actively cleared through demonstrative PR of the Chechen murderer Kadyrov and whipping up xenophobic hysteria. A couple more strokes in the spirit of “spymania” - and all this daub can be finished off with a bronze dictatorial baguette.
But there is also good news. In conditions of reduction of internal resources, the system begins to actively devour itself. Along with the flywheel of repression, the “internal shop” moods of a limited time are also spinning up, during which you need to have time to “grab and run away.” And the “sovereign’s people” accelerate in grasping movements, trying to satisfy their suddenly increased appetites: they need to steal quickly and a lot - so much that it is enough for several generations. The main thing is to “get out” on time. It is precisely these sentiments of the temporary workers, who have already internally declared their future defeat, that will destroy the power of the security officers. Not the notorious “people”. They are themselves. And when the first domino of this thieves shakes, they themselves will push it to fall, fleeing for their lives, and in panic, sweeping away everything in their path.
On the spot former country they will leave us a desert with ruins. You cannot prepare for this, but you will have to accept it as inevitable. And the eyes will be afraid at the sight of this ashes, and the question “where to start?” will become the main one. True, there is already an answer to it: we need to start with the state. More precisely, from the establishment of what has already been destroyed today.
P.S:
We must still admit that the Lubyanka terrorists retain power very professionally. Actually, they have 2 goals: to be at the helm as long as possible and to get rich due to this. Their interests do not coincide at all with the interests of the population, which they deeply despise. They feed this “cattle” (as they themselves call Russians) a myth about some kind of “historical imperial greatness of Russia, which is being encroached upon by external enemies and internal traitors.”
They are doing an excellent job of getting rich and retaining power, and if I were a Chekist fool, I would probably applaud. But the fact of the matter is that I feel very sorry for the country and its defrauded population, who still do not understand the main thing: the state should serve the citizen, and not vice versa. This principle contains everything: self-respect, responsibility, equality, and one law for everyone.
In general - yes. The security officers are doing a virtually impossible, unique thing. In the 21st century, they have been in power for 16 years. Through zombies, through expansion, through threats and murders with repression. They don’t even feel sorry for the brains that naturally “leak” out of the country.
They don't feel sorry for anything. They have nowhere to run. Or - almost nowhere. That's why they settled here until the end. And their end will be terrible. And the irresponsible and cowardly population will share their fate - through a large-scale collapse.
I don't think this will happen later than 2018. Most likely even earlier. We’re just following their increasingly large-scale projects, tied to total theft...
In connection with the nomination of Vladimir Putin for a presidential term, the liberal public is again singing something about the “crisis in Russia” about “political stagnation”, and about the fact that a crisis is about to happen, and our country will finally collapse into the abyss.
These, however, are regular rituals, regardless of the election cycle, and similar statements occur both in the Western “progressive” media and in our domestic liberal ones. Regarding the next round of hysteria, some telegram channels began to make a selection of stories from past years about how Russia is “facing an imminent collapse.”
It is clear that such predictions have been made with enviable consistency almost since the very beginning of Putin’s presidency. For example, the late Valeria Ilyinichna Novodvorskaya stated back in 2000 that “Putin will not serve until the end of his first term.” Well, our non-systemic oppositionists have been saying that “Putin will leave in a couple of months” every six months, if not more often, also since the beginning of the 2000s.
But the next peak of the “collapse of Russia” occurred in 2014-2015 in connection with the Ukrainian events.
For example, the “Evening Political Truk” channel published a far from complete selection of statements about the imminent collapse of Russia.
This catastrophe was predicted to us by Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, and Die Welt, and from domestic media, for example, Gazeta.ru and HSE experts, there is a very funny list.
Draw attention and chronological framework prediction data. According to them, we have either been gone for a year already, or we should collapse this year. The population must become completely impoverished and the food must run out irrevocably and the regime must be overthrown.
The authors of “Politruk” also recall the old meme about how “Putin has driven himself into a trap” and recommend giving the president a mousetrap that he never fell into: “There is a famous meme about how, since 2003, the press has been writing about that Putin has driven himself into a mousetrap.
Therefore, an original (and bold) gift to Putin for New Year or as a congratulation on being nominated for the presidency there would be a golden mousetrap encrusted with diamonds (see, dear President, how many years have they been trying to catch you in a mousetrap, and you still wow... and now you’re also planning for the next term)
But here is a short selection of “prophecies” of 2015 / there were enough such foresights in every month of the years that Putin was in power.”
But speaking seriously, the selection of these spells is extremely interesting from the side, so to speak, of the one addressed to whom these “spells” are heard. They are not addressed only to Putin or Russian elites they are addressed to the entire country in general and the entire Russian people
Here, from the point of view of psychology, it is clear that all these materials are not some kind of “analytical forecasts”, but an ardent desire disguised under them (and poorly disguised) for us all to “collapse” somewhere, “fail”, “die” from hunger." Full complement.
This is about those beautiful naive people who think that the West does not like Putin and the current government, but to ordinary people feels sympathy. Nothing like that, we're in in full force guilty before the “civilized community” “for the fact that they want to eat.”
And in this regard, our Westernized liberals take a similar position, in no way identifying themselves not only with the state (although often at the state expense), but also with the country and people. The truth is that for the West, these “Westerners” are just as Russian, useful only in the current situation.
However, this is quite logical and demonstrates quite obviously that they understand perfectly well: Putin is the president of the Russian majority, and therefore they are talking about the imminent destruction of all of Russia. All this notorious “majority”, and just in case, “minorities”.
And looking at all these " warm regards“our Western partners understand that the issue of preserving the notorious Putin stability and the current system of checks and balances is not some abstract task “so that it will be”, but a question national security, the survival of the country as a whole, in the most literal sense of the word.
Because many people both abroad and, unfortunately, in our country, do not want our country to remain on the map and in history. And this desire is in last years It’s practically no longer hidden.
In connection with the nomination of Vladimir Putin for a presidential term, the liberal public is again singing something about the “crisis in Russia” about “political stagnation”, and about the fact that a crisis is about to happen, and our country will finally collapse into the abyss.
These, however, are regular rituals, regardless of the election cycle, and similar statements occur both in the Western “progressive” media and in our domestic liberal ones. Regarding the next round of hysteria, some telegram channels began to make a selection of stories from past years about how Russia is “facing an imminent collapse.”
It is clear that such predictions have been made with enviable consistency almost since the very beginning of Putin’s presidency.
For example, the late Valeria Ilyinichna Novodvorskaya stated back in 2000 that “Putin will not serve until the end of his first term.” Well, our non-systemic oppositionists have been making statements that “Putin will leave in a couple of months” every six months, if not more often, since the beginning of the 2000s.
But the next peak of the “collapse of Russia” occurred in 2014-2015 in connection with the Ukrainian events.
For example, the “Evening Political Truk” channel published a far from complete selection of statements about the imminent collapse of Russia.
This catastrophe was predicted to us by Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, and Die Welt, and from domestic media, for example, Gazeta.ru and HSE experts, there is a very funny list.
The chronological framework of these predictions is also noteworthy. According to them, we have either been gone for a year already, or we should collapse this year. The population must become completely impoverished and the food must run out irrevocably and the regime must be overthrown.
The authors of “Politruk” also recall the old meme about how “Putin has driven himself into a trap” and recommend giving the president a mousetrap that he never fell into: “There is a famous meme about how, since 2003, the press has been writing about that Putin has driven himself into a mousetrap.
Therefore, an original (and bold) gift for Putin for the New Year or as a congratulation on his nomination for the presidency would be a golden mousetrap encrusted with diamonds (look, dear President, how many years have they been trying to catch you in a mousetrap, and you still wow... and Now you’re also planning for the next term)
But here is a short selection of “prophecies” of 2015 / there were enough such foresights in every month of the years that Putin was in power.”
But speaking seriously, the selection of these spells is extremely interesting from the side, so to speak, of the one addressed to whom these “spells” are heard. They are not addressed only to Putin or the Russian elites, they are addressed to the entire country in general and the entire Russian people
Here, from the point of view of psychology, it is clear that all these materials are not some kind of “analytical forecasts”, but a burning desire disguised under them (and poorly disguised) for us all to “collapse” somewhere, “fail”, “die” from hunger." Full complement.
This is about those wonderful naive people who think that the West does not like Putin and the current government, but has sympathy for ordinary people. Nothing of the kind, we are completely to blame before the “civilized community” for “the fact that they want to eat.”
And in this regard, our Westernized liberals take a similar position, in no way identifying themselves not only with the state (although often at the state expense), but also with the country and people. The truth is that for the West, these “Westerners” are just as Russian, useful only in the current situation.
However, this is quite logical and demonstrates quite obviously that they understand perfectly well: Putin is the president of the Russian majority, and therefore they are talking about the imminent destruction of all of Russia. All this notorious “majority”, and just in case, “minorities”.
And looking at all these “warm wishes” from our Western partners, you understand that the issue of preserving the notorious Putin’s stability and the current system of checks and balances is not some abstract task “so that it will be”, but a matter of national security, the survival of the country as a whole, in the most direct sense sense of the word.
Because many people both abroad and, unfortunately, in our country, do not want our country to remain on the map and in history. And this desire has hardly been hidden in recent years.
This spring I witnessed a conversation between a Ukrainian officer and a Western diplomat. The officer made a request: the West should help remove Putin from the presidency. The diplomat agreed: Western countries will try to do this, writes Der Spiegel columnist Benjamin Bidder. “Most likely, the diplomat answered this way because he did not want to offend the Ukrainian.”
However, the journalist notes, the question has already arisen: “Should the West hope for the end of the Putin era? Could he speed this up through pressure and sanctions?”
"Destroy Russian economy not that difficult,” says Bidder. - The Kremlin itself did everything preparatory work: Since 2008, about 470 billion euros have flowed out of the country, the currency fund is melting, high oil prices can no longer stimulate the economy, purchasing power Russians are shrinking, there is no new engine of economic growth." In light of these economic problems, the situation "could turn out to be quite dangerous for Putin," the article says. There are also political problems. Putin responded to mass demonstrations in 2011 with stricter censorship and legal action against opposition figures. There is now peace, but abuses still exist.
“Yes, Putin is more popular than ever,” admits Bidder. “However, the system he created seems less and less acceptable. Officials are pro-Kremlin.” United Russia“They are still considered “swindlers and thieves.” No one takes tame “opposition” leaders like Zhirinovsky seriously. Regional elections recently showed: the Kremlin won, but few people went to vote: for example, in Moscow, three out of four eligible voters stayed at home.” .
“You don’t need to be particularly imaginative to imagine the political end of Putin,” continues Bidder. “Removing him from the presidency through elections, as was the case with his friend Gerhard Schröder, will not work. Therefore, two options are possible: either the current ruling Kremlin elite will install its own successor, or the Russians, who one day no longer want to tolerate corruption and stagnation, will take up arms against Putin and his entourage.”
"And then what? It’s quite possible that the authorities will come someone who will think and act even more radically than Putin. The president created the preconditions for this with his failed policy: If the Kremlin clique wants to install a successor, they will choose him from the circle of the current president, and there Putin has significantly strengthened the position of the hardliners and ousted the liberals,” the article says. The scenario for the revolution in Russia is also gloomy , Bidder writes: “Power can be seized by both the right and the left. The boundaries between the two camps in Russia are blurred, as group names such as “National Bolsheviks” show.
“Therefore, a hypothetical overthrow of Putin would not save either Russia or Europe,” Bidder believes. Democratic forces would hardly have a chance to nominate a successor, especially since the Kremlin has been systematically ousting them over the past few years: Democrats have not sat in the State Duma since 2003. Most talented person in the opposition, Alexei Navalny has been under house arrest for several months, and the only deputy who voted against the annexation of Crimea has left the country.
Recently, the German newspaper Die Welt wrote that Vladimir Putin is “on the way to hell,” but only those who do not understand that the world’s largest nuclear power can turn the lives of their neighbors into hell even without Putin can rejoice at this, the author of the article points out.
What follows from this? It turns out that the West has only a choice between bad alternatives. NATO must discuss modernization, including the need to prepare for what will happen “after Putin.” But the West must also talk to Moscow and offer compromises - not because Putin deserves it, but because isolating Russia will create more more problems, concludes Bidder.
