The rebels kidnapped the head of the presidential office. Fierce clashes on January 19 between the Houthis and the security forces of President Abd Hadi reportedly killed nine people and injured over 60.
On January 20, 2015, rebels took over the presidential palace in Sanaa. A member of the political council of the Ansar Allah rebel movement Hamza al-Husi said that the rebels “are not trying to overthrow the president,” and that the clashes with units of the presidential guard were provoked by the servicemen themselves, who refused to transfer weapons from the arsenals on the territory of the palace complex of the head of state “for storage "To the rebels.
On January 21, Yemeni President Hadi and Houthi representatives reached a preliminary ceasefire agreement. According to the published information, the parties agreed that the text of a new constitution would be formulated, turning Yemen into a federal state and all groups of the population, including the Houthis, would be represented in the institutions of power. The rebels, in turn, pledged to withdraw their forces from government facilities seized by them, as well as to release the head of the office of President Ahmad Awad bin Mubarak, who was captured by them.
On January 22, President Hadi submitted his resignation letter. At the same time, as reported, the Yemeni parliament refused to accept the resignation of the head of state. Members of the Yemeni government also sent a letter of resignation to the president of the country. On February 6, the Houthi Revolutionary Committee was established as a temporary authority in the country.
On February 21, 2015, Hadi managed to escape from Sana'a to Aden after being under house arrest for a month. There he met with the governors of the southern provinces and announced the withdrawal of his letter of resignation.
Arab Coalition Forces Intervention
On February 26, 2015, the invasion of Yemen by the Arab coalition forces led by Saudi Arabia began. By August, the Saudi coalition had concentrated a powerful mechanized fist in the southern Yemeni provinces and began to advance northward with battles. The backbone of the pro-Saudi troops are units of the United Arab Emirates army and the infantry of the "People's Committees" from among the supporters of Hadi. In the province of Lahij, dozens of units of various armored vehicles from the UAE were seen: Humvee armored cars with Kornet-E anti-tank systems, AMX-56 Leclerc tanks, 155-mm self-propelled guns.
On August 9, 2018, 29 children were killed and dozens were injured during an air raid by the Saudi coalition forces. The bomb hit a passenger bus. The total number of dead and injured is about 130 people.
Humanitarian situation
Conflict of Abdullah Saleh with the Houthis and his assassination
Southern separatists protest against the Hadi government
Among the separatists of the South, a special position is occupied by Tariq al-Fadli, a well-known anti-communist jihadist, who heads the self-proclaimed Islamic Emirate of Abyan. Speaking from separatist positions against the central authorities of Sana'a, al-Fadli and his formations affiliated with al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula oppose the Houthis and cooperate with the Saudi coalition.
Request to Russia to resolve the conflict
Truce in Hodeidah
Resumption of hostilities in 2019
On January 5, 2019, hostilities resumed in the strategically important port of Hodeidah. The hostilities coincided with the visit of the UN Secretary General's Special Envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, to the country. Government forces and Ansarullah (Houthis) rebels have accused each other of violating the ceasefire. The command of the government forces said that the clashes broke out in the area of one of the buildings of the university in the south of Hodeidah. Eyewitnesses reported a massive fire in the area of the World Food Program's humanitarian supplies.
On January 10, 2019, an unmanned aerial vehicle belonging to Houthi rebels attacked a Yemeni government military parade at one of the largest Al-Ande military bases in Lahj province in southern Yemen. As a result of the attack, at least six dignitaries were injured (two of them subsequently died). In total, six were reported dead and nearly two dozen wounded.
On January 14, representatives of the Yemeni armed forces announced that in the province of Al-Dali, the Houthis had lost more than 20 militias in heavy fighting, including the battalion commander Abu al-Qarar.
June 2019: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) began withdrawing troops from Yemen (a representative of the UAE authorities stated that “there were troop movements (...), but we are not withdrawing them from Yemen”). The UAE is reducing its military presence in Yemen due to concerns over the US-Iranian conflict.
Attack on refineries
On the night of September 14, 2019, enterprises of Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, were attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles. They attacked the world's largest oil refinery complex in the village of Abkaik in the east of the country and the area in which the Khurais oil field is located, the second largest in the kingdom. After the attacks, violent fires broke out in factories. These attacks have led to a roughly halved oil production in Saudi Arabia. The Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack, claiming the attacks were carried out using ten unmanned aerial vehicles. They promised to carry out more attacks on Saudi targets in the future.
Guys, we have a large and detailed material about Yemen here. With the background and the cause of the conflict in this country. Must read
Anatoly Maksimov
Editorial note ... Yemen is now a nodal hot spot where the interests of too many neighbors are intertwined. In fact, this is Syria in miniature. Much outside of it depends on the course of the conflict. Therefore, we asked Anatoly Maksimov to tell how the country came to life like this and how the conflict could develop further. Moreover, in some episodes, the conflict there had amazing parallels with the situation in other regions, including ours.
Yemen is an ancient but poorest country in the south of the Arabian Peninsula. Once upon a time, there were prosperous Sabaean and Himyarite kingdoms on its land, and the city of Hadhramaut is considered one of the most ancient on Earth. Having survived the Egyptian, Arab and Ottoman conquests in its history, as well as the British protectorate, monarchy and civil war between North and South, Yemen entered the new century as a poor state.
Fragile agreements, a weak economy, long-standing disagreements between the Sunni elite and the Shiite minority, as well as the inability of state authorities to control the entire territory of the country have led to the fact that Yemen eventually mired in a protracted armed conflict. Conflict fueled by the Arab Spring and the lack of reforms.
Conflict in Yemen: Background
First Houthi revolt
It all started in 2004 in the city of Saada in the north of the country. As is often the case in the Arab world, the conflict was initially religiously motivated. Shiites live in those parts, while the central government of the country at that time, as now, consisted of Sunnis. The rebels spoke out against the corruption of the central government in Sana'a and its ties with the United States, and demanded autonomy for the region - you must admit, some analogies directly suggest themselves. The authorities, in turn, viewed the rebels as supporters of the restoration of the thousand-year-old Zeidist (a branch of Shiite Islam) monarchy, which was overthrown in 1962.
The leader of the uprising was Hussein Al-Husi (he was killed in the same 2004), after whom the movement, known in the world as the Houthis, was later named. Back in 1994, he created the Ansar Allah group. She initially received unofficial support from the "Shiite capital" - Tehran, while the Sunni government, according to good tradition, supported Saudi Arabia in everything.
The conflict lasted sluggishly until 2009. But after the Houthi attack on the Saudi village of Jabal al-Dukan and the killing of two border guards, the Saudis lost patience. They began to openly intervene in the conflict. In total, more than 70 soldiers of the kingdom died in clashes with the Yemenis during the entire war. Finally, in 2010, a truce was signed between the Houthis and the government, which lasted exactly one year, until the start of the Arab Spring.
Yemen and the Arab Spring
In January 2011, mass demonstrations began in Yemen demanding the resignation of the then-incumbent President Ali Abdullah Salleh, who had ruled the country for the 33rd year since 1978. Unlike protests in neighboring countries, which were quickly suppressed by force, in Yemen, the degree of resentment only increased. The reasons for this were: many people lived on less than $ 2 a day, part of the population was constantly suffering from hunger and, as in most Arab countries, too many young people were out of work. In fact, even before the start of the active phase of the civil war, in many areas, the president's power was nominal or absent - somewhere al-Qaeda controlled everything, and in the south, field commanders of various groups seized power. All this turned Yemen into a real boiling cauldron, which sooner or later had to explode.
Already in early February, protests forced the president to come to parliament and announce some concessions: he did not transfer power to his son, reduced the number of presidential terms to two in a row and refused to participate in the upcoming elections. Salleh, however, refused to leave his post. On 17 February, the first protesters were killed by police in Aden. Violence escalated until it peaked on March 18, when 52 demonstrators were killed in the capital, Sanaa. The police did not intervene. The president, according to the protesters, set the "titushki" on them, who, moreover, according to them, fired from the roofs of buildings. The country's leader introduced a state of emergency. The demonstrations continued amid the dissolution of the government and the resignation of several ministers, as well as the Yemeni ambassador to the UN.
The confrontation with gunfire and explosions lasted until May 19, when it was reported that a truce had been reached and President Salleh was ready to step down within 30 days. And within two months after his departure, new presidential elections are to be held. However, Ali Abdullah Saleh refused to sign the document agreed by the parties.
This decision of the country's leader led to a new round of violence. The air force of Yemen and the opposition fighting units took over. Another 72 people died in the capital. In the last days of May, 50 Yemenis were killed as a result of the dispersal of a demonstration in the southwestern city of Taiz.
The third and most important turning point in Yemen's history during the Arab Spring was the shelling of the presidential residence in Sana'a on June 3, when Abdullah Saleh, the prime minister and speaker of parliament, was wounded. Militias from among the rebellious tribes tried to break into the city. Saleh fled Yemen to return briefly in the fall.
In November, he finally stepped down from office, announcing this from the Saudi Arabian capital, Riyadh, in the presence of King Abdullah and Crown Prince Naif Al Saud. Saleh handed over power to Abd Rabbo Mansur Hadi, the vice-president of Yemen and his longtime associate. But this did not end there either. Troops led by Saleh's son opened fire on protesters, killing and wounding up to a hundred people.
The Arab Spring for Yemen ended with the confirmation of Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi as President on February 27, 2012.
But a great civil war was already on the doorstep. The Houthis did not lay down their arms, al-Qaeda was entrenched, and the government remained shaky and unable to implement vital reforms. It remains to wait for some two years. The fuse of a new conflict in Yemen was lit and approached the powder keg.
“The problem was that, despite the promises, the Houthis did not receive any representation in the transitional government,” writes Charles Schmitz of the Institute for the Middle East. Thus, they saw that “it is no different from the old regime that fought wars against them. In other words, the new government cannot be trusted. "
Yemeni Civil War: Beginning
So, it's 2014. In Yemen, the government has cut subsidies for petroleum products. This, in turn, led to an increase in gasoline prices. New protests began. The Houthis took up arms and took over entire areas and government offices in Sana'a, setting up roadblocks. Despite the peace agreement signed with the participation of the UN and the replacement of the Prime Minister, hostilities continued, spreading to other cities in the country. On January 20, 2015, the Houthis took over the residence of the President of Yemen, forcing Mansour Hadi to resign on January 22, and to flee the country through the southern port of Aden in February.
Meanwhile, on February 6, 2015, the rebels formed their own organ of power - the Revolutionary Committee. He stayed in power for over a year, being abolished in August 2016 with the transfer of all powers to the Supreme Political Council.
In addition, a Presidential Committee was formed, which was supposed to govern the country for a year. It was headed by the ex-leader of South Yemen, Ali Nasser Mohammed.
Foreign coalition invasion
The departure of the dictator Saleh was supported, or at least tacitly approved, by the major players in the world and the region. But immediately after it, there was a real threat of the seizure of power in Yemen by the radical group of the Houthis "Ansar Allah" and the establishment of a Shiite republic at best, and a theocracy at worst. At the suggestion of Saudi Arabia, which could not allow such a development of events, a military coalition was assembled, which included almost all the countries of the Persian Gulf (except Oman), as well as Egypt, the United States, Morocco, Sudan, Pakistan, Senegal and Jordan. The UAE sent their mercenaries separately. Someone helped financially, someone sent their troops to Yemen and into the skies above it. The capital of the forces loyal to the fugitive president became the city of Aden. The Houthis, in turn, fortified themselves in the northwest of the country. After fleeing to Saudi Arabia, President Hadi called for military intervention in the country to quell the insurgency.
Let's stop here for a second and think: why did the Saud even want to get into Yemen, except for the fear that a pro-Iranian regime would be established in the country? According to journalist Peter Salisbury, the Saudis in Yemen have recalled the old "contain and support" tactics. Its essence is “to keep Yemen weak and obliged to Riyadh, but not so much that due to the collapse there would be flows of refugees”. Therefore, the best decision was to support President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi and his Cabinet, which is completely pro-Saudi.
The invasion officially began on March 26, 2015 with Operation Determination Storm. A no-fly zone has been established over Yemen. After the first air attacks on the Houthi positions, full-scale hostilities began on both sides. Artillery, aviation and even naval forces were used. The territory and ships of Saudi Arabia were periodically fired with rockets. All this continued until April 21, when the operation was officially curtailed at the request of President Hadi himself.
Map of the conflict in Yemen on February 12, 2017. Green indicates the territory controlled by the Houthis, red - troops loyal to President Hadi and the international coalition, white - "Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula", and gray enclaves - IS
But this did not stop the airstrikes. A new operation, Revival of Hope, was launched to restore the power of President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi over the entire country and end the Houthis. The shelling continued with renewed intensity, spreading to new regions - Aden, Taiz, Saadu, Ibb. The blows were delivered, among other things, to residential areas, schools, armories, villages, ports, factories.
In May, President Hadi found himself a new capital to replace lost Sana'a and Aden temporarily occupied by the Houthis - eastern Saiwun in the province of Hadhramaut. On May 5, Hadi's supporters stormed the Aden airport, but due to continuous counterattacks, he constantly changed hands. Finally, Aden, the country's main port, was recaptured by the forces of the Saudi coalition only on July 17, 2015.
That same summer of 2015, a shaky truce was established. On June 16, the UAE withdrew its contingent from Yemen. The UN's road map has failed. Fighting resumed on 8 August. Two months later, the funeral procession was bombed, as a result of which from 140 to 200 people died, several hundred more were injured. The Houthis blamed the Saudi coalition for this terrible incident. The war has entered a protracted phase.
War in Yemen: who is who
There are several major players on the Yemeni chessboard now.
- Central government loyal to the forces of incumbent President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi. Controls mainly the central and part of the eastern and southern regions, including the most important port of Aden. He is also supported by the people's militia and the loyal part of the army.
- The Houthis (named after two leaders, the brothers al-Husi) are adherents of the Shiite tradition in Islam, united in the Ansar Allah movement. They are mainly based in the northwest of the country, controlling the capital of Yemen, Sana'a. They oppose American influence, accuse the authorities of discriminating against the Shiite minority and demand that autonomy be granted to the region of their residence. The global goal is the revival of the Yemeni monarchy, which was overthrown in 1962. Units of the Republican Guard, which was under the control of ex-President Saleh, went over to their side.
- Former President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Having lost power, he longs to return to the seat of the country's leader with the support of his guardsmen and has a negative attitude towards the intervention of Saudi Arabia. According to some reports, he has the support of the Shiites from Tehran.
- Saudi Arabia is a Sunni kingdom that directly supports the central government and opposes the creation of a Shiite state on its borders, especially a Shiite theocratic monarchy, which in any case will be controlled by Iran. The Saudis are backed by a US-backed foreign coalition contingent.
- Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is another important force in the region, controlling mainly the central and southeastern parts of the state, including the large cities: Al-Mukallah, Habban, Azzana and Tarim. The influence of militants in this region has always been significant, but with the outbreak of hostilities, it only strengthened. From time to time, the coalition forces knock them out of any settlements.
- Southern separatists, who are not averse to reviving South Yemen, as during the civil war. They have access to the sea in their hands, which means to the oil terminals. Among the large provinces in the hands of the Southern Movement is Hadhramaut.
- The sixth and last party that can potentially intervene in the alignment is the "Islamic State", which is already beginning to create its bases and cells in Yemen with the expectation of gaining a foothold there in the near future.
Donors, Diplomats and Double Standards: Great Powers in the Yemeni Conflict
Separately, it is necessary to highlight the participation in the conflict of the United States, Great Britain, Russia, Iran and China as the main financial donors and suppliers of weapons. For example, in Britain, some people are still demanding to stop trade with Saudi Arabia, and specifically, the sale of combat aircraft to it.
Abd Rabbo Mansur Hadi turned to Russia, Iran and China for help as soon as he came to power, and even went to Beijing on an official visit in December 2016 at the invitation of the Chinese side. China's position is of particular interest. The Celestial Empire developed relations with both Riyadh and Tehran, and through it, with the Houthis. And yet, Algeria, Saud and Kuwait bought more than 200 Chinese PLZ-45 SPH self-propelled artillery mounts for all of them before the intervention in Yemen, Popular Science reported in April 2015. In addition, Saudi Arabia and the UAE used Chinese drones in Yemen.
A month ago, in February 2017, an American Navy SEAL, the first in the Trump presidency, was killed during an operation against the Yemeni branch of al-Qaeda. American airstrikes hit about 30 civilians and 14 militants, including 3 leaders of the local al-Qaeda branch. The assigned task - to capture the squad leader alive - was failed. This spoiled the already not the best image of the United States in the country. In Yemen, they believe that the Americans "sold out" to the Saudis and are bombing the Houthi militia with them.
This raises a reasonable question: what does the United States really need in Yemen? Why is Washington ready to sacrifice its people, helping the vicious campaign of the Saudis, which destroys the entire infrastructure of Yemen and, at the same time, condemns its inhabitants to death by starvation, if only this country never poses problems?
“In September 2015, the then US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, highlighting the strategic goals of the United States in the region, noted that the Americans should support Saudi Arabia in its desire to protect its territory and its people from the attacks of the Houthis and prevent further supply of rebels and Saleh troops with the help of Iranian ships that delivered lethal weapons to them, ”Thomas Jocelyn, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy, said at a Senate hearing.
If we add information from the Vox analysis to this, it turns out that the United States supported Saudi Arabia only to maintain good relations with the kingdom - the two countries still fight ISIS together. In addition to logistical support, the United States sold arms to Riyadh for $ 1.3 billion, and at the same time refueled Saudi aircraft and turned a blind eye to their actions in a neighboring state. There is an example of "double standards" - for the same bombing in Syria, America criticizes almost all sides.
Finally, the last reason - President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi was an ally of the United States in the fight against terrorism, and the States did not abandon their "friend".
Peaceful settlement: one last attempt
The UN, despite constant failures, again tried to offer the parties a "roadmap" for a ceasefire. The last attempt was made just the other day, on March 9, by the special envoy of the organization Ismail Ud Sheikh. He stressed that the document was developed on the basis of UN Security Council Resolution 2216, which implies an immediate ceasefire in Yemen, and also requires the Houthis to “immediately withdraw from all areas occupied during the conflict, surrender captured weapons, stop provocations against neighboring states, release all captives and stop recruiting children into our ranks. ”
The plan includes three points:
- President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi remains in power for a transitional period, the post of vice president is abolished;
- a government of national unity is being formed;
- Houthi militant detachments surrender their weapons to the government army and agree to leave for Sana'a.
But while only offering peace initiatives, the war is still going on. Literally the day before yesterday, March 10, 2017, coalition forces broke through to Nahm, located north of the capital, Sana'a. In his press release, Chief of the General Staff of the Yemeni Army, Major General Mohammed Almekdashi, said: “The return of Sana'a under our control is inevitable. The army has achieved strategic superiority in the metropolitan area. " Most likely, at some point, Sana will still be captured. But when this will happen is impossible to say. It is impossible to predict whether this will put an end to the bloodshed in Yemen or whether the war and humanitarian catastrophe will continue.
To be continued.
The second part of the material can be found.
In Yemen, Iranian-backed Houthi Shiite rebels and soldiers of the Yemeni army who have gone over to their side are seizing more and more territories, primarily in the largest port city of Aden, despite the attacks on their formations by the aircraft and navy of the "Sunni" coalition of Muslim states that have lasted for almost a second week. led by Saudi Arabia. As a result of the fighting and shelling, more than 600 people have already died. International organizations are warning of the threat of a humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen and, so far not very successfully, are trying to provide assistance to the civilian population. On April 8, the situation in Yemen will be discussed at a meeting of the UN Security Council, which will consider a resolution to resolve the conflict proposed by Russia. At the same time, Saudi Arabia suspects Russia of supporting the Houthis and supplying them with weapons.
Well-armed detachments of the Houthis and their allies continue to attack the positions of the few supporters of the incumbent President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who fled the country, in whose hands remain several quarters of the main port city of Aden and a number of cities and objects in the very south of the country, on the shores of the Indian Ocean. The marinas and the port of Aden, where the heaviest fighting is taking place, are continually changing hands, Yemeni Foreign Minister said Riad Yassin Abdullah:
“The Houthis were no longer our biggest problem. They are just rebels, there are not so many of them, and they are armed only with light weapons, which, as you know, every Yemeni generally owns. However, the army units that deserted and re-declared themselves supporters of the ousted President Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2011, having tanks and artillery, in general, all possible heavy weapons, is the main threat. We are trying to avoid a full-scale civil war. There is no place for the former President Saleh and his family members in the future of our country, this is clear - after what he did to our people. Troops loyal to President Mansur Hadi could start a terrible war of annihilation - but we don't want that!
Over the past two days, the aviation of Saudi Arabia and its allies has inflicted about a hundred strikes on at least 20 targets in territory controlled by the Houthis, which, despite the opinion of the Yemeni minister, are recognized by the coalition as the main enemy - including the capital Sana'a and the main ideological stronghold rebels in the north, the city of Saada, which was for over 1200 years the religious center of Yemeni Zeidism, the armed wing of which today are the Houthis. Saudi airplanes also began parachuting weapons and ammunition on Mansour Hadi's supporters.
In turn, the Houthis have managed to shoot down two Saudi F-15 fighters since the start of the air raids. The crew of the first aircraft was killed, and the pilots of the second destroyed aircraft were picked up from the water in the Gulf of Aden by the American military. According to unconfirmed reports, on Monday, despite early assurances from Washington that the US military was not involved in the conflict in Yemen, a cruise missile from a US warship hit rebel positions in the Aden region.
The Houthi leadership announced that it is ready to sit down at the negotiating table to resolve the conflict with the coalition members led by Saudi Arabia at any time after the cessation of air strikes on their part, and at the same time - about their readiness to retaliate against Saudi Arabia if the shelling of Yemen continues.
The International Red Cross is calling on all fighting parties to declare a truce for at least 24 hours in order to deliver aid to the civilian population in many parts of Yemen left without drinking water, food, electricity and medicine. The Red Cross plane carrying 48 tons of medicines cannot get into the country in any way due to coordination problems and the lack of permits for the combatants to fly and land. Other international official and non-governmental humanitarian organizations are also making proposals to declare a truce. Tens of thousands of children are in a particularly dangerous situation, as always, a UNICEF spokesman said on Tuesday. Christophe Boullier:
“Yemeni children are chronically vulnerable in all aspects - whether we're talking about poor nutrition, lack of access to health care, or whatever. After the outbreak of violence in Yemen, humanitarian infrastructure has been severely damaged, and hospitals and schools are in ruins. And therefore in the near future, in principle, this is already happening, we are waiting for a lot of so-called "indirect deaths" - from the lack of proper medical care. And I must also mention psycho-emotional trauma and their consequences, this is quite obvious!
The situation in Yemen is becoming more difficult and confusing every day, as armed clashes here are not only occurring between opponents and supporters of President Hadi. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Ansar al-Sharia and the recently emerging Islamic State militants, who have recently appeared here, following Libya, are controlled by the West as the most dangerous force in this conflict. and fighting against both the Houthis and government formations. According to some reports, all radical Islamists in Yemen have established strong ties both with the Al-Shabaab group operating in neighboring Somalia, which has just carried out a brutal attack on a student campus in Kenya, and with the Nigerian Boko Haram.
In addition, the civil war in Yemen has long gone beyond the borders of the state and turned into a smoldering fuse of a bomb capable of detonating the entire region - at any moment they can directly intervene in the situation or even be drawn against their will, according to the principle of the "domino effect". very many parties, including the armed forces of rival states and their allies, from Iran, Pakistan and Turkey to various rebel formations throughout the Middle East and North Africa, for example, the Lebanese Hezbollah or the Iraqi Shiites, who have already declared their readiness come to the aid of "Yemeni brothers in faith".
On April 7, the Yemeni conflict was discussed by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who specially flew to Tehran, who had previously categorically fully supported the actions of Saudi Arabia and declared: "Iran and terrorist groups should get out of Yemen." The details of their conversation are still unknown, although in a joint press statement, Rouhani and Erdogan made standard statements about the need to end the violence and start solving the problem at the negotiating table. The hostilities in Yemen have become the second armed conflict, increasingly aggravating relations between Ankara and Tehran - after the war in Syria, which, according to the leadership of Turkey and Iran, should be ended in completely different ways.
Today the Iraqi government, which is heavily dependent on aid from both the United States and Iran, has to make a very difficult choice in the difficult struggle against the Sunni extremist group "Islamic State" - which of the parties involved in the Yemeni conflict will ultimately support. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia's old ally in the Sunni-majority Muslim world, finds itself in an equally difficult situation. In case of refusal to provide its military contingent for participation in the increasingly likely ground operation of the Saudi coalition in Yemen, official Islamabad risks incurring the discontent of Riyadh, which threatens to cancel the supply of oil products at very favorable prices, and the anger of numerous and influential Sunni religious groups in Pakistan itself. Last year, the amount of financial assistance from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan exceeded one and a half billion dollars. In addition, the current Prime Minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, has clearly not forgotten that after he was overthrown by the military in 1999, it was Riyadh who granted him asylum.
However, the Pakistani army, most of which is always forced to be stationed in the east of the country, along the border with India, a "historical rival," today is struggling to cope with extremists, primarily the Taliban, in their homeland. If it finds itself drawn into another conflict, it may simply not be able to withstand the tension - which threatens the country with many dangers, up to and including an attempt at another military putsch. Moreover, such a step will lead to a sharp aggravation of relations with neighboring Iran.
On Wednesday, April 8, the UN Security Council will consider the situation in Yemen at a special meeting, in particular - the draft resolution proposed by Moscow on the introduction of so-called "humanitarian pauses" between the air strikes of the Saudi coalition. The Russian proposal was a response to a draft resolution of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, which provides for the imposition of sanctions and an embargo on arms supplies to the Houthis and their allies. At the same time, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Yemen, Riyad Yassin Abdullah, recently stated that the planes from Russia, which arrived in Yemen last weekend to evacuate Russian and a number of foreign citizens, allegedly had weapons on board that had fallen to the Houthis. Critics of Moscow's foreign policy point out that every day of the Yemeni conflict, which threatens oil supplies from all over the Middle East, keeps prices on world oil markets from falling further - and therefore, in its current position, it is extremely beneficial for Russia to have a war in the south of the Arabian Peninsula. lasted as long as possible.
We provide our readers with an analysis of current events in Yemen in the form of a conversation between the Luhansk journalist and writer Gleb Bobrov and the journalist of our publication Ravid Gor.
Before we move on to the main topic - the war in Yemen, tell me - what was the balance of power in the region? And what is the brief background to this conflict through the eyes of an ordinary Israeli?
If we very, very briefly describe the prerequisites for the escalation of the conflict in Yemen, go through the main points of history, we get the following picture:
Yemen is a poor and restless country, constantly, since the liberation from the influence of the Ottoman Empire and the British, in a permanent civil war with rare periods of silence. The main source of income for the budget is the export of oil, the reserves of which are steadily decreasing and cannot be compared with the oil reserves of our neighbors. In 2009, they found gas - but it is even less than in the same Ukraine. In Yemen, on average, people live for only 60 years, each family has an average of five children, and the vast majority of women are illiterate. There are slightly more Sunnis in the country than Shiites. And Yemen has no water at all, the country is on the verge of an environmental disaster. Water is transported there under the protection of machine gunners. I do not think that the bulk of Yemeni citizens bathe at least once a week. Only very rich people can afford this.
Wherever there are Shiites and Sunnis, as in Yemen, sooner or later someone will stir up a conflict based on religious differences. Peace here is possible only if one group absolutely dominates the other and keeps the infidels in a black body, like among the Saudi neighbors.
In addition, there was a division of Yemen into North and South. North Yemen gained independence from the Turks in 1918 and changed its political system and name several times. South Yemen gained independence from the British only in 1967, also changed its name once, and also suffered from internal strife.
In the north, at first they built a monarchy, but then they chose capitalism. In the south, they tried to build socialism, but somehow it didn't work out. After two decades of hostility, in 1990 the two republics united to form what is now Yemen. As you might guess, the internal secular contradictions, if they were smoothed out, did not disappear completely into nowhere. Already 4 years after the unification, the separatists in the south raised an uprising, brutally suppressed by the northerners.
The president of the united Yemen became, by no means immediately, Ali Abdallovich Saleh - the permanent president of North Yemen since 1978. It took Mr. Saleh four years to gain full presidential power in the new state, and for this he needed to kill the separatists in the south in the 1994 uprising and introduce martial law.
And so, President Saleh ruled more or less calmly and individually as a united state for more than 16 years, until he was given a Maidan in 2011. Then it was called the Arab spring. Why Saleh did not please the organizers of the Maidans is not particularly clear, but it is quite possible that the permanent leader of Yemen was not liked by someone because of his belonging to the Zaidis, that is, to the Shiites, which means, by definition, must be loyal to Iran and Iraq.
Saleh fought like a lion. His supporters fought the Yemeni Maydauns. A lot of blood was shed, and Saleh himself held out for over a year, was seriously wounded after the shelling of the presidential palace, and was betrayed by his brother. But then, already in exile in Saudi Arabia, he was forced to sign a document on the transfer of power to a new "democratic" government.
Saleh could be called the Yemeni Yanukovych, but I believe he would have killed anyone with his own hands for such an insult, regardless of age and the consequences of injury.
By the way, Saleh was friends with Russia, and was awarded the international prize of St. Andrew the First-Called "Dialogue of Civilizations" for 2004 - "for services in strengthening friendship and cooperation between the peoples of Russia and Yemen, as well as for his contribution to international anti-terrorist efforts."
After a successful armed coup, like the Yemeni Poroshenko, Abd-Rabu Mansurovich Hadi, who was promoted to Vice President under Saleh, became the Democratic President. But he did not manage to preside for the sake of freedom, democracy and Euro-Atlantic choice for long.
In 2014, an anti-Maidan arose in Yemen, which achieved success using exactly the same methods as the revolutionaries of the Arab Spring of 2011. All the prerequisites for it were laid decades ago, but the embryo of the conflict was created in 2004 in northern Yemen with the creation of the Shiite Houthi protest movement and the first Houthi uprising against the central government. Supporters of the movement are called the Houthis by the name of their first leader who died in battle, and they belong to the Shiite Zeidis, who make up about a third of the population.
Houthis differ little from ordinary Arab Maydauns, with the exception of their orientation towards Iran and hatred of the West. The Houthis have staged an uprising against the government because of discrimination and in protest against global corruption at all levels. When the Yemeni Maydauns began to overthrow the legitimate government, they were the first to succeed, and the Houthis, taking advantage of the situation, opposed everyone at once: both against the government and against the junta.
It was then, back in 2004, that the glorious tradition of crushing the Houthis with the help of the Saudi army was born. It was thanks to the help of the Saudis, at the request of Saleh, that the first uprising in northern Yemen was suppressed, as a result of which the leader of Al-Husi was killed.
And who are the Yemeni Maydauns? Without exception, all the media are modestly silent on this topic, but we managed to find out something. As in Ukraine, there is a complete vinaigrette consisting of a coalition of various extremists: the al-Qaeda branch, which has sworn allegiance to ISIS, the non-governmental Sunni armed formations Ansar al-Sunna, the Hashid Tribal Confederation, the al-Islah movement, the group Ansar ash-Sharia ". The key player and brilliant Maydauns who initiated the collapse of the country are the tribes of the Hashids and "al-Islah".
The Houthi rebellion against the new government began with demonstrations and protests in August last year against the increase in gasoline prices, quickly turned into an armed stage, and by the end of January, only 20 thousand Houthis had already seized key buildings in the capital of Sana'a, took control of vast territories in the most populated parts of the country, after which President Hadi submitted his resignation and was placed under house arrest. Hadi managed to lose the country, completely becoming like his Ukrainian counterpart Yanukovych, with American advisers and American weapons at hand. Instead of quietly strangling the ousted president, the Houthis for some reason released him a month later from house arrest. On February 21, Hadi fled to the port city of Aden, which he appointed the country's temporary capital. There he survived an assassination attempt, continued resistance, and also called for military intervention in Yemen. After the Houthis seized control of Aden on March 25, the former president left the country. Well, definitely Yanukovych.
What was Saudi Arabia doing while the Yemenis were killing each other?
The effectively functioning military bloc of the Arab Sunni states "Peninsula Shield", under the leadership of the Saudis, which grew out of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, in opposition to the gaining influence of Shiite Iran, was created and legally formalized three years ago, but in At that time, this event passed unnoticed, as few people were interested, with the exception of some military experts.
Thus, the Saudis did not waste their last years in vain, and did not throw words to the wind, but methodically engaged in the organizational building of the Arab Military Alliance, which allowed them to quickly and relatively effectively, jointly launch a military operation in Yemen at the first whistle from Riyadh.
Why would the Saudis intervene in Yemen?
Yemen is a very bad neighbor, beggar, aggressive and suffering from schizophrenia, who has nothing to eat, and who allows anyone to roam around its territory. The Saudis have tried in the past to help President Saleh bring order to the country by force. But now the situation on the border for a stronger neighbor has deteriorated significantly: Shiites came to power in Yemen, supported by a hostile Iran, who in Saudi Arabia itself make up about a third of the population. In addition, it was the Houthis who have already tried in the past to drag the Saudis into internal squabbles, committing armed provocations against them, and achieved their goal. Over the past two years, the good Americans have supplied the pro-Western government of Hadi in Yemen with weapons and ammunition for half a billion dollars, which all fell into the hands of the Houthis.
The success of the Yemeni Shiites in the struggle for power, with a high degree of probability, will also lead to the fact that the Saudi Shiites, receiving support and example, will raise their heads and begin a bloody struggle against the Sunni regime they hate, and who will be happy about that except Iran?
Judge for yourself, would you like such a neighbor close by? And keep in mind that you either have very few ways to solve the problem while remaining within the framework of international law, or even absolutely none. So the Saudis threw aside any shyness and shyness, and acted as they always do in the Middle East: if you are big and strong, and you have a good heavy club, and someone small and bad is raging nearby, then the choice of solution is obvious ... Unless someone as strong and evil as yourself stands up for the little and the bad.
Is al-Qaeda somehow involved in what is happening?
Al Qaeda became a branch of ISIS. She now controls significant areas of the country, but much less densely populated. Al-Qaeda fights against both the Houthis and is a banned organization in Saudi Arabia, where it was well-cornered. So the Sunnis from ISIS will also get from the Arab coalition, along with the Houthis, so they don't stick out.
So why is there so much fuss about the events in the impoverished and weak Yemen?
The picture will not be complete without mentioning one important detail: Yemen, beggar as it is, is located at a point from which you can control the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, through which 5% of all oil produced in the world is transported, and which is the shortest route from Europe to Southeast Asia and Australia. If we put the Grad division on the shore in Yemen, not a single vessel will be able to pass through the strait. When it comes to such an important matter, then whoever makes a mess in Yemen, he signs his own death warrant, unless he is able to quickly put things in order in the country and demonstrate peacefulness to all the countries of the Gulf.
How did Russia react to what is happening, does it participate in the settlement of the conflict?
Moscow opposed interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states, for the cessation of hostilities in Yemen, in order to prevent an escalation of the situation and the collapse of the country along the lines of Libya. Arab countries must solve their problems peacefully and without outside interference. This opinion was expressed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his message sent to the heads of state and government of the member countries of the League of Arab States. Also, earlier, Putin spoke on the phone with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, convincing him that the best solution to the problem is peaceful means and dialogue between the parties. Also, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in which they discussed the situation in Yemen and Syria. It is noticeable that the Russian president is making great efforts to extinguish the fire. But Russia does not have enough leverage.
And what are the successes of Russia in this direction?
For some reason, the Saudis did not like the peace initiative of Russia and its president. Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Saud Faisal noted that Russia talks about the tragedy in the Middle East as if it had nothing to do with it. However, according to him, it is Russia that is part of the crisis in Syria. Then Prince Saud Faisal continued: "Russia allows the Syrian regime to receive more than enough weapons." Then Prince Saud Faisal demanded that Russia bear its degree of responsibility for the situation in the Middle East.
The Saudis' policy has received support from the United States, including the logistics one, which is in an awkward position due to the fact that they hope to complete negotiations on a nuclear deal with Shiite Iran, which, in turn, traditionally supports co-religionists in Arab countries. Washington and Tehran are also waging, in fact, a common fight against radical Islamists from ISIS in Iraq. Great Britain and Turkey announced their agreement to supply weapons to the Saudis. The Egyptian naval forces have already entered the Gulf of Aden, taking control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and cutting off the Houthis from the sea routes along which Iran can send military aid.
What is your forecast and assessment of events?
Israel can only watch from the sidelines as Muslims of different persuasions reduce the number of each other. While they are busy with what they love, we can reduce the cost of the army and devote time to internal problems. Whatever the end of the conflict in Yemen, Iran will spend a large amount of its limited resources to support the Shiites, whether they win or fail. The most unfavorable development of events for Israel will be the creation of a pro-Iranian Shiite state even in part of Yemen. This state will be absolutely toothless, but Iran's influence in the region will increase.
Saudi Arabia will soon realize that air raids alone will not solve the problem at its borders. We realized this back in 2006, when a pilot was put at the head of the General Staff. And the Saudis have no experience in such things, they themselves have to learn it from their mistakes. Yemen is ideal for guerrilla warfare, if not for one problem - the lack of its own food and an even greater lack of water. So, if the Saudis decide on an overland invasion and occupation, then they can easily and simply kill everyone unwanted with hunger and thirst, leaving only a minimum of a loyal population. If the coalition wants a safe route across the strait, then the Saudis need to take on a role similar to that of the Americans in Iraq or Afghanistan. The Saudis face huge costs, which will partially offset or even block the rise in oil prices without reducing production, as a result of the concern of oil traders and consumers about the escalation of conflict near an important transportation route. Meanwhile, after a slight increase in oil prices immediately after the outbreak of hostilities, they fell again. So the impact of the Yemeni conflict on the global economy turned out to be overestimated.
A safe strait, a path from Europe to Southeast Asia, is needed by everyone - both the Arab states and Europe and the Asians. By itself, the conflict in Yemen is rather insignificant in scale and in its consequences. If navigation through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is not threatened, events in Yemen will very soon disappear from the news columns of the world's most influential media. It is easier to achieve security for the strait by force than to bring to power in Yemen a loyal and stable government that reliably controls most of the country's territory.
The Big Players distanced themselves a bit. The United States and Britain do not bomb anyone themselves, which is even surprising. At the same time, of course, one cannot deny the significant role of the United States in direct support of Saudi Arabia. But for them, Yemen is also not something worth paying with the lives of its soldiers for. The United States gave this country to everyone to be torn apart. Why the Americans brought the virus of color revolutions to the impoverished country remains a mystery. Perhaps it was just an experiment. It is possible that the virus was introduced by accident by professional revolutionaries from North Africa.
Russia could use the situation to complicate life and teach a lesson to the arrogant monkey and openly hostile Saudis. But today's Russia will not agree to this. The USSR would be capable of intervening in the conflict. The Houthis would be very happy with any Russian weapon, primarily mobile air defense systems, and then ATGM. But they have nothing to pay for such a weapon. Yes, and an air defense calculation cannot be prepared in a month, but whether Yemen will continue to exist is questionable.
Iran is another matter. Iran is ready to buy weapons, ready to supply weapons to its allies, to send advisers and instructors. But Iran's resources are not unlimited; it is already bogged down in Iraq. So, Iran is capable of stirring up the water, but it cannot win in the battle against Saudi Arabia and its many allies. But if, in order to annoy the Saudis, useless stupid Yemenis, who are not able to live peacefully for ten years in a row, go to the expense, then who will pity them?
Thus, the future of a beggar and troubled Yemen, in my opinion, is sad:
Yemen will be torn into at least two parts, or even three or four. Hunger and thirst and a sluggish war will greatly reduce the number of Yemenis, which will make all the neighbors happy. In the south-western part of the country, most likely, by the hands of the Arab coalition, a regime loyal to Saudi Arabia will be assembled, which itself will exterminate other, objectionable Yemenis. There will never be peace and prosperity in Yemen, but the world community will quickly become bored with the headlines from this region, and for all of us, the Yemeni conflict will cease to exist.
Consequently, there will be no big Middle East war?
No, there will be no big war. So-so local little -interesting squabble - practical exercises of the new military alliance, the Arab "NATO" under the leadership of the Saudis, to work out interaction and military coordination at the Yemeni training ground.
How likely is the development of this conflict from a local to a regional one?
The full-fledged involvement of almost all Sunni Muslim countries in the region took place from the first days of the conflict - this is the whole point of the new military alliance - to rush at the enemy in a crowd at the command "Fas!" The land phase, in my opinion, is inevitable. This war is purely local, and it will remain so.
What is Israel's role in this conflict, given its status in the region and the participation of "sworn friends" from all sides of this confrontation?
Israel has nothing to do with it. If you sit by the river for a long time and look at the water, you can see how the current carries the corpse of your enemy. Corpses are now carrying a lot. Sitting by the river and looking at the water is not boring these days. The Arabs do a great job on their own.
How can events in the Middle East affect, for example, in our country, in the rebellious republics of Donbass and in the region as a whole?
No way - this is a long-standing, boring and uninteresting local tradition to slaughter people of other faiths. Each region has its own unique, glorious and no less ancient traditions of this kind. I think I need to focus on my problems. Let them frolic.
Ravid Gore
It is believed that the Ottoman Empire fell as a result of the bloody Russian-Turkish wars, the uprisings of the Balkan peoples and pan-European contradictions, which ultimately resulted in the First World War. This is largely true, but another factor played a role in the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Diplomatic reports from Istanbul that arrived in European capitals in the pre-war years sounded the alarm not only because of the events in the Balkans, but also because of the sharp aggravation of the situation in Yemen, which directly threatened the interests of the great powers - England and Germany.
The Yemeni territories, which were part of the Ottoman Empire, enjoyed considerable independence and were subordinate, in particular, to the imam of Sana'a. The Yemeni imam led the most powerful massive anti-Turkish uprising that broke out in 1904 and continued until the outbreak of the First World War. The famous statement of the chief of the German General Staff Helmut Moltke Jr., addressed to his Austrian colleague Konrad von Goetzendorff, dates back to the same time: “Turkey is militarily zero. If we used to talk about Turkey as a sick person, now we should talk about a dying person. She has become unviable and is in a state of agony. "
In 1918, then-North Yemen, centered in Sana'a, became independent. The Ottoman Empire finally collapsed. Ten years later, the Yemeni authorities concluded a comprehensive treaty of friendship with the Soviet Union, which played a significant role in the political, trade and economic life of the country.
If the USSR from the very beginning supported Yemen, then the main neighbor of the Yemenis, Saudi Arabia, took a position hostile to the young state. And this was determined primarily by territorial disputes: Riyadh claimed a significant part of its territory for small Yemen. The first, but far from the last, armed conflict between independent Yemen and Saudi Arabia broke out in 1934.
The Saudis in their policy towards their neighbor were not limited to military expeditions, but periodically assumed the functions of a regulator of internal political life in Yemen. In 1962, after the death of the Yemeni king Ahmed, Prince Mohammed al-Badr was proclaimed the new monarch. A week later, an anti-monarchist military coup took place in the country, but the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces took the side of the ousted monarch. It is characteristic that at that time they were opposed not only by the units of the Yemeni guard, but also by the elite units of the Egyptian army, who opposed the supporters of the monarchy.
The proclamation of the independence of South Yemen in 1967 further complicated the geopolitical situation in the southwestern region of the Arabian Peninsula. Territorial and tribal contradictions were aggravated by the different foreign policy orientations of North and South Yemen. The latter began to fully focus on the Soviet Union, which, in turn, gave the internal Yemeni conflict an ideological coloration.
In 1990, the unification of the two Yemeni states took place, but the contradictions within and around the now united country have not disappeared anywhere. And Riyadh began to play an increasingly active role in regional processes. The West does not like to remember this, but it was Saudi Arabia that largely financed the US military operation in the Persian Gulf.
And in 2000-2003, Yemen acted as the scene of an armed operation codenamed "Intifada Al-Aqsa", carried out by the Israeli special services with the approval of the United States. Then, as a result of a missile strike on targets in Yemeni territory, civilians were killed. And this blow itself, made in the midst of the then presidential campaign in the United States, was called upon, according to American human rights activist Susan Nossel, to support George W. Bush, “to present the American leader fully armed on the eve of the presidential election,” and also “to demonstrate to all the enemies of Israel and America what will happen to them in the near future. "
It is worth recalling that it is in Yemen that the roots of the Osama bin Laden family can be traced. The father of the future "terrorist number one" Mohammad bin Laden left the Hadhramaut area in the late 1920s and went to work again in Saudi Arabia, where in 1931 he founded his own company. According to eyewitnesses, Mohammed bin Laden retained his lifelong attachment to his Yemeni homeland.
During the Arab Spring, the confrontation between various political, tribal and religious forces inside Yemen and the active involvement of external players in it resulted in a “color revolution”. It stretched out over several months and eventually brought Abdurab Mansur Hadi to the presidency in February 2012. However, the change of power did not bring calm, but, on the contrary, served as a catalyst for a new confrontation, since ousted President Ali Abdullah Saleh continued to enjoy the support of Yemeni Shiites - Houthis.
The conflict between the supporters of Saleh and Hadi has several dimensions. First of all, it is the internal Yemeni conflict. One of the leading Turkish experts in the field of economic and political science, Mehmet Ali Kilichbay, puts the “inter-Yemeni massacre” on a par with other bloody conflicts in the Muslim world - the Iran-Iraq war, civil wars in Afghanistan and Algeria, bloody clashes in Indonesia and the Philippines. Experts of the US Intelligence Council in a report prepared for the beginning of Barack Obama's first presidential term, classified Yemen, along with Palestine, Afghanistan and Pakistan, in the category of countries "with the highest risks."
The geopolitical risks arising from the long-term internal Yemeni conflict are multiplied by the intervention of external forces, primarily Saudi Arabia, seeking to bring Yemen under its control and turn it into a zone of its exclusive influence. And a clash in this direction with Iran is not the only consequence of this Saudi strategy. Riyadh's goals go far beyond neutralizing Yemeni Shiites. Saudi Arabia sees itself as the leading power of the "regional NATO", the role of which is proposed to be played by the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf (GCC).
The escalation of the Yemeni conflict and giving it an international character were used by the United States as a lever in the negotiations of the six international mediators and Iran on the Iranian nuclear program in Switzerland. In turn, the achievement of agreements with Tehran by the Barack Obama administration will become an important trump card of the US Democratic Party in the upcoming struggle for the White House in the 2016 elections. Finally, judging by the available information, Washington will try to use the normalization of relations with Iran and the involvement of Iranian energy resources in transcontinental projects as an energy war with Russia.
In recent days, the Yemeni crisis has become a kind of focus for a number of religious, political and geopolitical contradictions in the Middle East, and the significance of this crisis, given the strategically important position of Yemen, goes far beyond the regional framework.
The air operation of Saudi Arabia and its allies in Yemen is a sign of the transition of the entire Middle East to a new geopolitical dimension. The main elements of the new situation are the active participation of various regional forces in the redrawing of existing state borders, the arms race in the region and the gradual erosion of the former strategic alliances of the states of the region with the United States and other Western powers. All this makes the Middle East conflicts even more complex and multidimensional. The next step is the formation of new alliances and the game on a regional chessboard with a periodic change of pieces and sides.
In the new situation, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Qatar will increasingly resort to the notorious "humanitarian interventions", denying the principles of territorial integrity and state sovereignty in the form as they are formulated in the fundamental documents of international law.
In this connection, remembering the UN Charter has already become useless. However, in relation to the Middle East, one can recall the Declaration on the Granting of Independence to Colonial Countries and Peoples, adopted in 1960 by the UN General Assembly. Its main meaning was that the document deprived the meaning of "reasoning about a hierarchical community of states, in which the rights of membership and participation were granted depending on the degree of development and characteristics of a particular society."
Both the UN Charter and the Declaration on the Granting of Independence to Colonial Countries and Peoples are an obstacle for the architects of the "New World Order", who are striving to establish the hierarchical (colonial) structure of international relations in the world.
The blurring of ideas about state sovereignty in the Near and Middle East (and this is not only Yemen, Afghanistan or Iraq, but also Turkey, Syria, Bahrain) is usually associated with the colonial legacy and the intrigues of the Islamic State (IS) terrorists. However, this does not explain what is happening. The United States is primarily responsible for the reshaping of the "Greater Middle East" map, begun by the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and then Iraq in 2003.
Today this process has become threatening. Experts and diplomats have already calculated that Libya, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and even Saudi Arabia could split into at least 14 states, which could then unite into Sunnitstan and Shiitstan.
It is significant that the upcoming redrawing of the Middle East political map according to the patterns of Islamists is especially popularized by Anglo-Saxon authors. French experts are more cautious in their assessments. For example, Michel Fouche, noting the emergence of "zones in which there is no state power", argues that radicals from the "Islamic State" are champions of state institutions. “Among the first steps they are taking are the establishment of classical state institutions, the introduction of passports, currency, all those things that we expect from states surrounded by borders,” recalls Michel Fouche.
By the way, the Arab coalition, led by Saudi Arabia, is waging a war in Yemen not against the cross-border "Islamic State", but on the side of one of the internal Yemeni political forces against their opponents. The situation is developing in a similar way in Bahrain, where the Sunni government opposes the Shiite majority of the population. And there, and there the "Islamic State" acts only as a propaganda cover for plans to expand the military-political influence of Saudi Arabia and the pro-Saudi Cooperation Council of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
It seems that the further development of events here will be determined primarily not by the military successes of the Saudi coalition in Yemen, but by the rapprochement of the United States with Iran that has emerged at the talks in Lausanne and the simultaneous growth of Turkey's foreign policy expansion. For both Tehran and Ankara, Riyadh is a competitor and adversary. Many people in Turkey today think as the local Internet edition Taraf wrote the other day: "The example of Yemen shows that Turkey, having dropped anchor in the Sunni camp, alas, cannot get rid of the role of Saudi Arabia's third-rate rear squad."
The Turkish Internet publication Yenicag believes that the statement of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan about support for the actions of Saudi Arabia in Yemen does not meet the interests of Turkey. “It is important to understand that the Arab-Iranian conflict is a struggle for interests and regional leadership, and Sunnism and Shiism are an instrument and a pretext in the foreign policy of these countries ... One thing is clear: Iran scared the Arabs. And Turkey should remember about its interests and take a neutral position in this Arab-Persian dispute. "
Turkey and Iran have gained a certain experience of bilateral cooperation, including in terms of resolving the Iranian nuclear problem. And if the US-Iran-Turkey foreign policy and energy link becomes a reality, the most unpredictable actions can be expected from Saudi Arabia, including the development of its own nuclear program on the Iranian model.
Bain W. The Political Theory of Trusteeship and the Twilight of International Equality // International Relations. Vol.17. # 1. 2003. P.66.
AFP 110325 GMT DEC 14
