Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has put forward conditions for the normalization of relations with Israel, RIA Novosti reports citing Turkish media. According to him, the rapprochement of the two countries has great importance for Turkey. “But there are three problems between us. Israel must apologize, compensate the families of the victims and end the blockade of the Gaza Strip. Of these three conditions, Israel fulfilled only the first. If the remaining two conditions are met, we are ready to start the normalization process,” Erdogan said.
What are Donald Trump's chances of winning the Republican primary and presidential elections in USA? We asked about this Despite the fact that experts have long agreed that Donald Trump has no chance, he is in this company for a long time and definitely has
But is it capable of converting high percentages in polls public opinion in success when it comes to choosing a candidate from Republican Party or when will Americans vote for a new president?
On local elections in France, the two leading parties managed to keep the National Front out of the corridors of power. Who really won and who lost in this election? The National Front failed to build on the success it had in the first round.
Donald Trump is a billionaire and a very bright character whom Americans who are familiar with Russian political situation, like to compare with Vladimir Zhirinovsky. August 2015. 50367. What are the chances of Donald Trump becoming President of the United States?
Despite the indignation of Republican colleagues at Donald Trump's increasingly outrageous statements, the New York billionaire continues to lead the Republican race for the presidency.
We asked American experts what are the chances of Donald Trump?
Norman Ornstein, American Enterprise Institute
Despite the fact that experts have long agreed that Donald Trump has no chance, he is in this company for a long time and definitely has a chance to be nominated from the Republicans.
We need to be careful in our assessments. The primary is still a long way off, and some polls suggest that Trump supporters have never voted in a primary before.
His support isn't limited to 25%, but even if it were, he could win some early votes and gain momentum. He didn't need to spend a lot of money yet, but he did raise significant resources to build an electoral structure in the early states.
The Canadian left his wife and seven children to become a little girl. A 52-year-old man said that he feels like a member of the opposite sex, moreover, a child. He admitted that as a child he could not wear dresses and bows, so he decided to catch up in adulthood. The father of the family Paul Wolsht left his wife after 23 years of marriage. Even before his marriage, he liked to dress in women's clothes, but then he met his future wife Maria. Six years ago, Paul realized that he was in fact a woman, and
Opponents of Donald Trump believe that the fight for the White House is not over yet. The first successes along this path have already been achieved, but does Trump have reason to be nervous? Secondly, both Clinton and Obama have already recognized Trump as the 45th President of the United States, and an attempt to win back
In a review of British newspapers: the chances of Donald Trump to become president, the first steps towards Brexit and the threat to democracy in Turkey. Will Donald Trump make it to the White House? All the British newspapers are reporting that the US Republican Party Convention has put forward
The higher the probability of the next terrorist act in the US and even in Europe, like those in Paris or San Bernardino, the more his hard-line rhetoric attracts angry, worried, conservative voters.
One cannot underestimate the strength of public sentiment in the US against the political elite - against Obama, and against the leaders of the Republicans. These sentiments are also fueled by radio programs and bloggers with strong financial incentives.
Trump's victory in the presidential election is very unlikely, but not impossible.
It's important not to lose sight of Ted Cruz, who stands a good chance of winning the Republican nomination if Trump makes a mistake. Cruz constantly courts evangelicals and supporters of another candidate, Ben Carson, and cleverly positions himself in such a way as to take away votes from Donald Trump.
As the popularity of Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen rises among American and French voters, it is increasingly common to compare politicians' statements on various issues. What do these two politicians have in common? "Donald Trump has become America's Marine Le Pen," reads the headline magazine New Yorker.
Do you think Donald Trump has a chance of winning the US presidential election? No, he'll be the Republican nominee, but the Democrat will be president. As he noted, "Trump's opponents in the party will put spokes in his wheels, in fact playing
*Chris Cummins*, Euronews: Despite the split among the Republicans, Donald Trump is entering the battle for the White House and he needs to fight for votes. How will he
Robert Schlesinger, Opinion Managing Editor, US News & World Report
There are several compelling reasons not to believe that Donald Trump will become the Republican nominee. You can start with history.
Never big Political Party in the United States did not nominate a person who, like Trump, has no political experience.
For five people in US history, the presidency was their first elected office. But three of them were war heroes, and the other two had previously worked as secretaries of the presidential administration.
Recent experience shows that public opinion polls are seriously flawed.
Eight years ago, New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was the all-year Republican leader in opinion polls. The man who won the 2008 primary, Arizona Senator John McCain, was in fourth place in the polls.
Four years ago, former Speaker of Congress Newt Gingrich was well ahead of Mitt Romney. former governor Massachusetts won the primary despite Gingrich leading him twice in the polls.
A petition on the website of the British government demanding to ban billionaire Donald Trump from entering the country has collected a record number of signatures. However, is there any chance that the authorities of the country will really introduce such a ban. In just a few days, more than 500 thousand people signed the petition. No other similar document on the government website has previously collected such a number of signatures.
Armen Hovhannisyan, Chief Editor magazine " international life", for MIA "Russia Today". " American dream dead, but I will return it to you" - under such a slogan, Donald Trump literally burst into the election campaign.
Donald Trump has agreed to become the Republican Party's presidential candidate. In his speech, Donald Trump promised Donald Trump's main rival is the representative Democratic Party and former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Donald Trump has clearly touched the nerves of Republican voters who feel insecure about the problems in the economy, the country's changing demographics and terrorism. But endless articles about him in the press also play into his hands.
One way or another, either because his rival finally launches a serious paid-advertising attack on Trump, or because his supporters are repulsed by his agenda leading to the political margins, Trump's star will fade long before the final Republican primaries.
Froma Harrop, columnist
At first, the election campaign of Donald Trump seemed frivolous. Some have said that his early outrageous statements, such as his attacks on Hispanics, were an attempt to sabotage a campaign that he never took seriously.
But the reality is that, despite all the international criticism, he remains popular among the blue-collar workers, his main audience.
Can Trump win the Republican primary? Now there is no doubt about the seriousness of his intentions. There is no certainty now that the elders of the Republican Party will easily sink his candidacy and nominate a more decent candidate.
Yes, Trump can be nominated by the Republican Party.
US presidential candidate Donald Trump thanked Vladimir Putin for the compliment addressed to him. The White House found it difficult to answer the question whether Trump would be able to improve Russian-American relations talented person. “It is not our business to determine his merits, this is the business of the US voters, but he is the absolute leader presidential race", said the head Russian state. “He says that he wants to move to another level of relationships, more dense, deep level relations with Russia, how can we not welcome this? Of course, we welcome this,” Putin said.
Trump has a good chance of becoming president. Businessman and television star Donald Trump launched a campaign to run for the 2016 presidential election. Because chances are he will actually do what he says and be focused on
In all this, however, there are elements of a bluff. Trump is not a Wall Street man, not a representative of the financial oligarchy. If Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton clash in the fight for the White House, then it will be a clash between the old
Can he win the presidential election? Never. Polls have long shown that Hillary Clinton, the most likely candidate for the Democratic Party, is ahead of everyone possible contenders from the Republicans.
His recent escapade has been so bizarre that many Republicans are openly considering voting for Clinton. According to a recent poll, a third of Republicans say Trump scares or bothers them.
And let's not forget that while Trump leads the Republican nominee, he is backed by only 35% of the Republican electorate.
Trump will not be the next president. But the fact that he's gotten this far is worrying enough.
Kylie Kondik, political campaigner at the University of Virginia
Some have pointed to the consistency with which Trump leads the Republicans and sees it as a sign that his various absurd statements haven't hurt him. But I think they seriously hurt him.
Trump's racist statements and ideas have united the leadership of the party against him, and now it is much easier for other candidates to say that his nomination will turn into a disaster, especially in the fight against Hillary Clinton, whom the Republicans do not want to see in the presidency.
The party primaries are a long process, they start in February and end only in July. Unlike previous years, when less successful candidates dropped out of the race early to back the lead candidate, other challengers now have no desire to drop the competition to support Trump.
The Platon system, under which drivers and owners of heavy trucks pay tolls on federal highways, has already managed to make a lot of noise and provoke a whole series of protests. But it is possible that a similar system will be introduced not only on federal, but also on regional roads. However, it is worth noting right away that so far there is no talk of introducing a toll - the very concept of such a toll collection system is still only being discussed, and no specific solutions, according to officials, has not yet been adopted. Nevertheless, according to the Moscow agency, the development of a system similar to Platon has already become interested in the Moscow region.
And so the experts decided to analyze the work of the incumbent President Donald Trump in order to assess all his chances in the presidential race. How did they know that Trump could face several obstacles on his way to a second term. IN Lately Can
Donald Trump is just Donald Trump - a celebrity who jumped onto the political stage saying that Republican leaders are stupid and corrupt And four out of five Latin American voters say they are not going to vote for Donald Trump.
If he thought that three hours on the podium during the debate was an ordeal, let's wait and see what he has to say after this marathon.
Trump is very unpopular nationwide. One of the recent surveys showed that 30% of the population has a positive attitude towards it, and 60% negatively. It is hard to imagine how he can change this alignment.
One of the big questions in this presidential election is whether Hillary Clinton will be able to engage the traditionally passive non-white part of the electorate.
In this sense, the presence of Donald Trump on the ballot would be the best motivator for Clinton and the Democrats.
Rebecca Dean, professor of political science at the University of Texas
Even though Trump has attracted great attention press and successfully used the public order for the appearance of the so-called anti-politician, he is still very far from winning the primaries. To win, he needs to get the support of 1236 delegates out of 2470. He will receive the votes of the delegates if he achieves a high percentage of the vote in each of the states.
A minor problem is that the Republican National Committee has ruled that all states that vote before March 15 must choose all of their delegates based on proportional principle, depending on the number of votes they received. After March 15, winner takes all.
Before this date, there will be several primaries in the states. The results in Iowa and New Hampshire are important because they can set the tone.
Trump leads by 18 percent in New Hampshire, according to the latest polls, but he's tied with Senator Ted Cruz in Iowa if margins of error are taken into account.
After these two states, the primaries will be held in South Carolina and Nevada, and on March 1, on the so-called "Super Tuesday", 12 states will vote at once.
The bill was submitted to the Moscow City Duma, but the deptrans no longer supported the idea © Anton Belitsky/KommersantA draft law on the transfer of authority to municipal deputies to agree on new paid parking lots has been submitted to the Moscow City Duma. The initiative was taken by the council of deputies of the Ostankino district. The Moscow Department of Transport did not support the idea: shifting responsibility to the deputies in the department is considered “wrong and dishonest”. Experts admit that the chances of passing the bill are slim, but the President's recent statement on paid parking, in theory, can influence the final decision of the authorities.
Image copyright Reuters
At the end of May, polls show that Donald Trump is either catching up with Hillary Clinton, or even slightly ahead of her.
Skeptics stress that the general election will take place on November 8, so the current polls say little.
For example, in June 1992, the polls predicted victory for billionaire Ross Perot. In June 1988, one poll predicted the victory of Democrat Michael Dukakis. Now their names mean nothing to most Americans.
But Trump's leap forward is perceived by the press as an alarm announcing that the developer, who was not so long ago unanimously perceived as a pea jester, has a real chance to become president. Many knowledgeable people, however, they say that this is unlikely.
First, Democrats have long had an a priori advantage in presidential elections. The fact is that Americans do not vote for the president, but for the electoral college, which now has 538 members: 435 members of the House of Representatives and 100 senators, plus two congressmen and one senator that the District of Columbia would have if it were considered a separate state. .
Simple arithmetic
The Founding Fathers of the United States feared direct democracy, foreseeing that sooner or later it would lead to "the tyranny of the majority," as Alexis de Tocqueville, author of the famous Democracy in America, put it. Therefore, they preferred indirect democracy, in which wise citizens, united in an electoral college, stand in the way of the folly of the crowd.
In reality, the electors are loyal party members who simply ratify the results of the vote. To win, you need to collect 270 votes in the college.
In every election from 1992 to 2012, the Democratic presidential candidate won 18 states and the District of Columbia. Together they have 242 electors.
The Republican, on the other hand, has consistently won only 13 states in the last six elections. Together they have 102 electors.
This means that to get the desired 270 votes, Trump will have to exert himself much more than Hillary Clinton, who enters the battle with a huge advantage. If things continue as they have in recent decades, Hillary will start a duel with Trump, with a backlog of 242 electors.
Image copyright EPA Image caption Hillary Clinton, like her rival, lacks voter popularityIn order to gain the coveted 270, it will be enough for her to win in Florida, which has 29 electors, that is, one more than she needs to win.
University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato, whose forecasts are highly rated, has previously said that, according to his calculations, the Democrats will have an advantage this year in states with a total of 247 electors. Republicans have a clear advantage in states that have a combined 206.
Six more states could swing in either direction, Sabato had said before. They all have a total of 85 electors.
Now Sabato sees no swing states. He sees that Hillary will almost certainly get 347 electors and Trump only 191. This is a complete rout.
The respectable Cook Political Report speaks in the same spirit, according to the calculations of which the Democrat now has somewhere around 304 electors, the Republican - only 190, and only 44 are "hanging in the air."
Victim of civil strife
Hillary's victory is also promised by the usually very reliable model of Moody Analytics, which predicted last July that the Democrat would win the election, and has held to this forecast ever since. The model has correctly predicted the winner of the presidential race since 1980 and has had a 90 percent success rate in predicting state elections.
As columnist Michael Cohen writes in the liberal Boston Globe, Democrats don't need to panic about polls that show Trump is on par with Hillary or even slightly ahead. The point is that the Republicans the chosen one of the party was determined on May 3 when Trump crushed Ted Cruz and John Kasik in Indiana, and the Democrats are still torn apart by civil strife.
Therefore, the Republicans are now rallying around their only standard-bearer, while the Democrats are not yet. Even some of his ardent critics of yesterday are calling to vote for Trump now. Senator Lindsey Graham, for example, was for some time Trump's rival in the electoral race and categorically stated three weeks ago that his conscience would not allow him to support him. Now he is already calling on conservative donors to give Trump money for the elections.
Until recently, the campaign has cost Trump little, because he didn't spend much on it and relied on free press, which covered his every word for nothing, since it gave her ratings. This allowed him not to ask for money from outside and proudly declare that you can’t buy it. But the race is now in new stage, and Trump is forced to look for sponsors.
It is likely that when Hillary finally becomes the official choice of the Democratic Party, her rating will also go up.
Republicans are counting on the fact that part of the supporters of the socialist Bernie Sanders will ultimately vote not for Hillary, but for Trump. Indeed, according to the survey New York Times, up to 28% of them say they are not going to vote for Hillary in November.
Image copyright EPA Image caption Trump opponents in California use papier-mâché piñata dolls to call for Trump's march to be stoppedHowever, Cohen confidently predicts that in the end, most of them will vote for Hillary like little ones. In April 2008, when Hillary fought Obama in the primaries, 35% of her supporters swore that if the party nominated him, they would vote for Republican John McCain in November.
In the end, however, the overwhelming majority voted for Obama.
The major US parties do not issue membership cards or collect membership dues, but party loyalty in the US is very strong, and there may be very few defectors in November.
The latest Fox News poll paints a rather bleak picture for Trump. He leads among white voters by 24 points. But the preponderance of Hillary among blacks reaches 83%, and among Hispanics - 39%.
The favorites share an impressive popularity deficit. Only 40% of those polled said that Trump - fair man. 57% do not consider him honest. Hillary managed to get around it here too: 31% of respondents consider her honest versus 66%.
The above does not mean, however, that Trump will certainly lose in November. A year ago, no one could have predicted that he would become the chosen one of his party. The current election race is outlandish and amazingly unpredictable. But for now, betting on Trump is not easy.
Looking at the disaster that comes with election campaign Trump, you understand two very important things.
First, politics is work. Industry National economy. With their own rules, written and unwritten, clans - "systems", hierarchies, strict requirements for job seekers, rituals, internal institutions. Everything is like everywhere else - from the criminal world to academic science.
The establishment, repeatedly cursed by Trump, is not "usurpers of the people's will", they are professionals and bearers of culture with a tradition that, although mobile, is quite inert. The story about a political outsider who burned the hearts with a verb and convinced everyone is good for books, but does not work for life.
Enfant terrible of the Republicans Reagan took as a partner the most boring representative of that same establishment - Bush Sr., who lost the primaries catastrophically - and became one of the best Republican presidents in history. The political, media, administrative machine, capable of winning elections in the interests of the half-dead Yeltsin, became the basis and conductor of the first successes of the young and "alive" Putin. Popular Republican President Theodore Roosevelt failed to return to The White house as a candidate from the new Progressive Party, created by him in opposition to the Republican establishment, and lost to the Democrat Woodrow Wilson in 1912, deprived of the support of the republican electoral machine. Examples can be given endlessly.
The only really winning policy for the “fighter against the establishment” is a contract with this very establishment. A convincingly played "agreement", in which the "establishment" must publicly "lie down in the fifth round" and recognize the strength of its "winner" (well, it is clear that the "owner" must also act in the interests of the establishment, here the road is two-way traffic).
And secondly, in any non-revolutionary process, the average one, “standing with two feet on the ground” and understandable to the “average” same majority, fearless and mundane, wins, and the super-duper innovative proposal gets a bright press and a sect of supporters, but not the jackpot.
The centrist always wins. What does it do in political sense impossible to successfully "revolt against the system" in presidential states. IN parliamentary system The "rebel" is able to gather, I repeat, a sect and become an important part of the ruling coalition, having collected 20% percent, but this is not for situations where the "winner takes all".
Did Trump have a chance? Of course there was. Establishment contract, much more fast moving to the "center" both in style and content of rhetoric, a demonstration of the ability to repent and give thanks. But Trump would probably not be Trump if he went for it. Therefore, Trump will lose, and “Trumpism”, after reflection and thoughtful revision, will certainly become a set of technologies in the hands of the renewed establishment - the professional political class.
As Business Insider notes, Robert Iger leads Disney at a landmark time for it - during his leadership, the corporation acquired control of Marvel Studios and Lucasfilm, and the value of the company's shares quadrupled.
Iger gave an interview to Variety about his career. The entrepreneur recalled his first job as a meteorologist and shared his story of working in the media. At the end of the interview CEO Disney has released a list of seven of its favorite books that it recommends every professional read.
1. Black Flags: Rise of ISIS by Joby Warrick
Warrick's book on ISIS won the 2016 Pulitzer Prize. The author tells how the ideology of ISIS originated in one of the Jordanian prisons and how two US presidents unwittingly helped to spread it.
Warrick was able to talk to CIA officials and access documents from Jordan and track how diplomats, spies, generals and heads of state tried to stop the movement from spreading - some saw it as big threat than in the activities of Al-Qaeda. Critics call the book "brilliant and complete".
2. The Wright Brothers, David McCullough
A book from two-time Pulitzer Prize winner David McCullough about the life of the inventors of the first airplane, Wilbur and Orville Wright.
3. Born to Run, Bruce Springsteen
American performer Bruce Springsteen devoted seven years of his life to this book. In the work, Springsteen told the story of his life - "with his usual humor and originality."
4. "December 10: Stories" by George Saunders
According to the readers of the book, the story reveals the issues of modern human morality. The author tries to figure out what makes any person good in the eyes of others and what makes him human.
5. "Between the World and Me" by Ta-Nehisi Coates
6. "Survival by the method of intelligence: 100 key skills" by Clint Emerson
A Practical Survival Guide from a Retired Employee naval forces US by Clint Emerson, adapted for those who do not serve in the military. The book includes instructions for self-defense, getting rid of surveillance or pursuers, and survival in other dangerous situations.
7. Tender is the Night, Francis Scott Fitzgerald
Classic novel by American writer Francis Scott Fitzgerald, published in 1934. The life story of a talented psychiatrist and his wife, whose wealth pushes them towards death.
