Until 1960, all of China's foreign trade, with a few exceptions, was conducted with the USSR and its European allies (mainly Czechoslovakia, Poland and East Germany). During the period of deterioration in relations between the PRC and the USSR, China purchased grain from Canada and Australia, imported equipment for industrial enterprises from Japan and Western Europe. The development of foreign trade resumed in the early 1970s. After China announced its policy in 1971 open doors“In relation to Western countries, its foreign trade turnover has tripled in just 4 years. By 1980, it doubled again and continued to grow, albeit much more slowly, until 1988, breaking the $100 billion mark. The great importance of foreign trade for China’s economic development can most clearly be illustrated by the share of exports in total GDP: in 1980 it was approx. 13%, and in 1992 reached 35%, i.e. was higher than the share of exports in the Japanese economy. The total volume of China's foreign trade in 1997 reached $325 billion.
Despite repeated attempts to achieve at least an approximate balance between exports and imports in foreign trade, since the beginning economic reforms in 1979, every three out of four years China ended up with a trade deficit. The structure of exports underwent significant changes in the 1980s. If at the beginning of this decade food products and minerals (oil and coal) accounted for 40% of total Chinese exports, by the end they barely reached 20%. During this period, the share of finished products in exports rose from 50 to 75%. The structure of imports also changed: the share of finished products increased from 65 to 82% of total cost import supplies.
In terms of individual commodities, in the late 1980s the value of ready-made garment exports exceeded the total value of oil exports, China's largest export for many years. Cotton fabrics and seafood came in third and fourth place. China's main trading partners in the 1980s and first half of the 1990s were Hong Kong, Japan, the United States and Germany, and Hong Kong, in turn, re-exported many goods purchased from China. Factors that make Chinese exports competitive in global markets include low labor costs for Chinese workers, large foreign investment in light manufacturing, rapidly improving quality of finished products produced by Hong Kong-owned factories, and repeated devaluations. Chinese yuan. All this led to a sharp change in the nature of the trade balance between China and the United States in favor of China. According to Zeng Peiyan, within 25 years after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, bilateral trade and economic cooperation has developed rapidly, as evidenced by the increase in trade turnover between China and the United States from 2 billion US dollars. dollars in 1978 to 100 billion US. dollars in 2003. Tens of thousands of American businesses have invested in total size 43 billion US dollars into the Chinese economy. These successes are the result of the joint efforts of the governments, businesses, people of both countries and the US Chamber of Commerce in China.
Zeng Peiyan said that the economies of the two countries are characterized by significant complementarity, and bilateral trade and economic cooperation has great potential. As Chinese reform deepens, American companies will have even more opportunities to develop. According to him, China intends to further open up various areas of the domestic service industry to foreign investors, such as retail trade, tourism, the stock market, banking, insurance, and telecommunications industries, while accelerating the large-scale development of the western regions of the country and the reconstruction of old industrial bases in the North. Eastern China. The Chinese government encourages American companies to invest in high-tech enterprises.
The US Chamber of Commerce in China was established in 1920 to promote bilateral trade and investment activities. This non-governmental organization has more than 1,500 representatives from 700 US companies
If in 1990 in the United States, exports to China slightly exceeded imports from China, then by 1996 the US deficit amounted to approx. $20 billion, second only to the trade deficit with Japan, and in 1998 surpassed it. 2003 saw the fastest growth rate of China's foreign trade since 1980. According to the latest customs statistics, China's foreign trade turnover reached US$851.21 billion in 2003, an increase of US$230.4 billion or 37.1 percent over 2002.
According to customs statistics, in 2003, China's exports and imports amounted to US$438.37 billion and US$412.84 billion, an increase of 34.6 percent and 39.9 percent, respectively. The positive trade balance amounted to $25.53 billion.
Despite the severe damage caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in the first half of 2003 to China's service industry, Chinese export growth continued at 30 percent in 2003.
In the 1990s, the flow of foreign tourists to China increased, and in the mid-1990s, 26 million people visited the country. In terms of tourism income ($10.2 billion), China ranked 9th in the world.
China is one of the oldest trading powers in the world. Even in ancient times, there was a Great Silk Road that connected the Celestial Empire with the countries of the Mediterranean. In the Middle Ages, it was replaced by another - the sea (monsoon) route, which ran along the southern coast of Asia. Silk, porcelain, paper, gems, and iron products were exported from China. Maritime trade flourished in China both in early modern times and during the period of the Great Geographical Discoveries. But then China switched to a “closed door” policy, which lasted until the mid-19th century. and the so-called “Opium Wars”. And before the formation of the People's Republic of China in 1949, the country's foreign economic relations clearly reflected the state of its economy. China exported traditional products of its Agriculture- silk, cotton, tea, soybeans and some types of mining raw materials, and imported food and various industrial products. And in the new China, during the periods of the “Great Leap Forward” and the “Cultural Revolution”, when the concept of “self-reliance” dominated, external economic relations played a secondary role.
Table 41
DYNAMICS OF CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE, billion dollars.
But after the start of economic reforms and the transition to the “open door” policy, the situation changed radically. Foreign economic relations have become very important and have become one of the most important prerequisites for rapid economic growth. They have become a powerful lever for restructuring the Chinese economy, transferring it to market relations and accelerating its integration into international economic relations. Of all the known forms of such relations, two are of greatest importance for China - foreign trade and attracting foreign capital.
International trade This is the type of foreign economic relations in which China has achieved the most impressive successes. Suffice it to say that after the start of economic reforms, in terms of annual growth rates, foreign trade significantly outpaced even China’s very high GDP growth rates. As a result, the country’s economy, which two or three decades ago was considered one of the most closed in the world, has become one of the most open: back in 1979, less than 10% of GDP was formed in foreign trade, but in 1990 - 30%, and in 2005 – already 64% (according to other data – 37%). Such results in China were achieved largely through the decentralization of foreign economic activity, which is now carried out along with state-owned almost 7,000 other enterprises. The rational combination of two models of economic development – import-substituting (main) and export-oriented (auxiliary) – was also of great importance.
Picture of dynamics of foreign trade China is given by table 41.
Such high rates of development of foreign trade have led to a noticeable change in China’s position in the world “table of ranks.” Thus, the country’s share in world foreign trade turnover increased from 0.75% in 1978, when reforms began, to 7.5% in 2006. And in world exports this share (10.7%) is even greater. In terms of export volume, China, having overtaken the USA and Germany, took first place in the world in 2008, and in terms of import volume it is second only to the USA. Attracts attention and is stable active trade balance countries, moreover, with an ever-increasing excess of exports over imports. This is one of the most important sources income, providing approximately 4/5 of all foreign exchange earnings. Thanks to him, the country came out on top in the world in such an important indicator as gold and foreign exchange reserves (at the end of 2006 - $1,200 billion).
Compared to the early 1980s. has changed a lot and commodity structure foreign trade of the People's Republic of China. The main direction of this restructuring was the improvement export, i.e., in increasing the share of finished industrial products in it compared to primary processed products and raw materials. Back in the late 1970s. finished industrial products, on the one hand, and raw materials with semi-finished products, on the other, correlated in the structure of exports as 50: 50. And in the late 1990s. – already like 85: 15. At the same time, the share of food, agricultural raw materials and mining products in China’s exports has noticeably decreased, while the share of engineering products has increased. The share of light industry products, which gave way to mechanical engineering in first place, remained generally unchanged.
China is a traditional supplier to foreign markets of such light industrial products as cotton and silk fabrics, knitwear, clothing, haberdashery, shoes, toys, sports and tourism goods, plastic and porcelain products. Export products of mechanical engineering and electronics include machine tools, sea vessels, different kinds weapons, but consumer electronics products still predominate in it (for example, China provides 1/3 of the world's exports of radios). Like light industrial products, they are in great demand on the world market. Along with this, the export of food and agricultural raw materials is also maintained. It is dominated by vegetables, fruits, fish and seafood, as well as cotton. China continues to export coal, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, and cement.
Industrialization and modernization of the Chinese economy also determined the nature of its import, which is dominated by machinery, equipment, vehicles(cars, airplanes), industrial electronics. The main goal of the forced import of industrial equipment is to quickly increase the technological level of Chinese industry and the quality of its products. This is very important, because many products with the Made in China brand are still especially high quality they do not differ. And also because such imports can help increase the competitiveness of Chinese goods on the world market. China also has to import oil and oil products, iron ores and, in addition, rolled ferrous metals and chemicals. It can be added that China is a major arms importer.
Geographical distribution foreign trade The PRC reflects two inherently opposite trends - towards concentration and deconcentration (diversification). In fact, the country trades with more than 180 countries around the world, but only a dozen of them are among its main trading partners. Firstly, these are some of its neighbors - Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand (not to mention Hong Kong), the development of trade relations with which is largely facilitated by the transport and geographical location. China's trade with these countries is characterized by both competition and cooperation. The financial and economic crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997 led to a sharp decrease in Chinese exports to the countries of the subregion, but then they grew again. Moreover, in 2001, an important decision was made to create a free trade zone between China and ASEAN countries within ten years. Secondly, this is the United States, in trade with which China (it exports textiles, arts and crafts products, clothing, shoes, but also some mechanical engineering and electronics products to the United States) constantly has a positive trade balance. Thirdly, these are the countries of the European Union, primarily Germany, the Netherlands, Great Britain, France and Italy. And fourthly, this is Russia. However, the volume of trade between the two countries until the end of the 1990s. remained at a low level, not corresponding to either the needs or capabilities of both countries: but already in 2006, exports from Russia to China reached $16 billion (third place after the Netherlands and Germany). China's exports are dominated by leather goods, clothing, footwear, and knitwear, while imports are dominated by machinery and equipment, mineral fertilizers and ferrous metals. By the way, cross-border trade between the northern provinces of China and the regions of the Russian Far East occupies a large place in this trade turnover. At the end of 2001, China was admitted to the WTO.
The second important form of China’s foreign economic relations is related to the monetary and financial sphere and is expressed primarily in import of capital, which is widely used to accelerate economic and social development countries. This area of China's foreign economic relations is growing even faster than foreign trade. Suffice it to say that back in the early 1990s. Imports of capital were at the level of $10 billion, in 2006 they reached $70 billion - this is the third place in the world and the first among developing countries. As for the total volume of foreign capital investments accumulated in the country, already by beginning of XXI V. it reached 500 billion, and by 2006 - 1 trillion dollars. This figure is comparable to the GDP of the Republic of Korea and significantly exceeds the GDP of Iran, Indonesia, Australia, and Taiwan.
China uses various channels attracting funds from abroad. Of great importance are the loans and credits that the country receives from foreign governments and international financial organizations, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. However, even more important for China have become direct investments, in terms of the volume of attraction of which it is second only to the United States. Although more than 100 countries invest their capital in China, only a few countries and territories are among the main investors. Until 1997, the non-competitive first place among them was occupied by Hong Kong, and subsequent places fell to Taiwan, the USA, Japan, and Singapore. More than 4/5 of all these investments settled in the Eastern Economic Zone of China and were associated with free economic zones different types. Let us add that in the 1990s. and China itself also began to export capital - in the form of loans and direct investments (in 2006 - $16 billion).
SOUTH CHINA SEA
Other forms of external economic relations include production cooperation.
At the end of the 1990s. in the country there were about 300 thousand joint ventures with the participation of foreign capital, the share of which in foreign trade, according to some estimates, was 1/4, and according to others, even scientific and technical relations, which so far are expressed mainly in China’s purchase of technical documentation and know-how from Western countries. If we also take into account the service sector, then China began to receive increasing income from international tourism(50 million international tourist arrivals in 2006). It also provides labor services: Tens and even hundreds of millions of Chinese go to work in other countries every year.
In this essay, I want to briefly examine the current situation in China's relations with the rest of the world. I specifically chose as a subject a topic to which I had not devoted much research, but on which I had accumulated a sufficient amount of material and information, which I will try to bring into a unified system. The source for my knowledge about China, which has been accumulating for several years, was numerous analytical political science articles, news from all kinds of media publications, books that, although not specific or comprehensive, touched on the problems of China, as well as some official documents ( for example, military doctrine).
Based on the specifics of the discipline, we should start with the latest world events that determine the global state of affairs. This is the global financial crisis, which, without exaggeration, affected the development of most countries on the planet and their relations with each other. I will take this given as the initial order of the flow of thought. China is the world's third-largest economy in terms of GDP production. (And if we take into account GDP in terms of purchasing power, it is in second place after the United States). However, China is classified as a developing country, which allows it to enjoy various privileges in international trade. The PRC economy is very much focused on the export of consumer goods, and the global financial crisis has had a rather significant impact on it, as there has been a drop in purchasing power in sales markets on a global scale. Accordingly, there was a reduction in GDP growth rates, and unemployment began to rise. Unemployment for the vast country of China is a source of social tension, which has an unfavorable effect on the mood in society. The state of the social sphere in China is such that a small spark is enough to start popular riots in some regions of the country. Moreover, this is aggravated by interethnic contradictions, as evidenced by the popular clashes that occurred in July of this year in the city of Urumqi. In order to borrow as much as possible larger number people, especially during the crisis, the party decided to increase work on infrastructure projects, the cost of which will amount to up to 600 billion dollars. This will not only help you take great amount workforce, but also to attract other sectors of the economy to infrastructure projects. This, in turn, will cause an increase in demand for consumed energy and energy resources, the need for which is constantly increasing. China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the United States. The share of imported oil is approximately 40%. China's even greater demand for oil, given that the development of its own fields will not satisfy even half of China's needs in the near future, will significantly affect world oil prices. The recent cheap oil has been very positive for China's economy, pushing up GDP growth. The United States, which is heavily dependent on oil imports, is also concerned about the situation with oil prices, especially as China begins to compete with them for sources of oil consumption. This is expressed in the fact that China has begun an active struggle for Africa in order to diversify sources of imports of minerals (mainly oil).
China's energy security policy has thus been reflected in its large-scale expansion into Africa. For now, this expansion is expressed in the economy, but soon, perhaps, China will begin to back it up with political obligations and demands. China is actively investing in the economic complex of African countries, which are a supplier of valuable resources for it. China is not only developing industrial mining infrastructure, but also helping these countries develop agriculture and the social sphere. This helps Chinese companies strengthen their position in Africa. China is also reducing or eliminating duties on many groups of goods from Africa, which affects the development of some sectors of the economy. African countries. But with all this, China is holding back their development, flooding their market with cheap consumer goods and industrial goods that are not able to compete on the world market. China is trying to get only raw materials from Africa, and does not contribute in any way to the development of the processing industry in this region, but it is developing its own industry. And having started such a policy relatively recently, China has overtaken the United States in this. The volume of trade between the United States and Africa is more than 80 billion dollars a year, the volume of trade between China and Africa is more than 100 billion dollars. Naturally, absolutely most of These volumes are accounted for by trade in mineral resources. Thus, China’s internal needs force it to look for both markets and sources of resources in the world, which inevitably leads to a clash with other countries (the USA, the European Union, India, Japan, Russia). It seems to me that this will be the main impetus for the main content of further international policy.
It follows that the global economic crisis has a contradictory impact. On the one hand, unemployment is increasing due to falling consumption levels in the world, but on the other hand, China's GDP is growing. Moreover, it is growing by 8% per year, while in all other countries it has fallen and is only beginning to recover in some places. China has effectively become a monopolist of GDP growth. This is achieved through measures to stimulate domestic consumption, taxes for enterprises are reduced, and the investment climate continues to improve. Investment growth in China's economy increased by $7 billion in November 2009 compared to the same period in 2008. The specificity of the Chinese economy is such that it must grow all the time, by no less than 7% per year, but no more than 10% per year. This corridor is due to the fact that with growth of less than 7%, unemployment will increase, and with growth of more than 10%, the so-called overheating of the economy occurs, when inflation and overproduction of goods will increase. Based on this, Chinese expansion in the world will inevitably only increase - for now economic, and not only within the real sector (production and trade), but also in the financial sector. It can be said that China has bought almost a “controlling stake in the United States.” The US has issued almost 4 trillion in long-term government bonds. dollars and more than half of their holders are foreign investors, among whom China holds absolute leadership. Thus, China is the main creditor of the American economy. The United States, in turn, is no longer able to maintain imports of Chinese consumer goods at the same level, which prompted China to begin large-scale measures to reorient itself from the external market to the domestic one, for which China began active incentives domestic demand. And despite the crisis, China succeeds in this thanks to a large expansion of consumer lending to the population. As a result, everyone’s GDP is falling, while China’s is growing. So now America may be more dependent on China than it is on it, because China is now a much-needed source of financial stabilization for it.
Against this backdrop, President Obama flew to China for a four-day visit in November of this year. The importance of this meeting is indicated by its duration - 4 days. American presidents have never gone on such tours to one country before. This meeting showed that China is no less a full-fledged player than the United States, and even partially takes the lead. The previous rhetoric in relations between China and the United States under President Bush Jr. has changed dramatically. If Bush could allow himself to make statements about the possibility of boycotting the Olympics in China, then Obama was emphatically loyal, made concessions, and did not allow himself to interfere in the internal affairs of China. The main topic of the negotiations was the global economic crisis. The United States offered China to revalue the yuan, liberalize its internal exchange rate, and stop dumping on the world market. China demanded that the United States abandon protectionist barriers. In particular, a scandal recently erupted with Chinese tires, on which the Americans imposed high import duties. China joined the WTO precisely in order to avoid such situations, but the Americans, despite this, are increasing duties. The Americans are demanding that China strengthen the yuan, since the cheap yuan gives China trade advantages and puts it in a more advantageous position. China has such a system that there are, as it were, two yuan - internal and external. They have little connection with each other. Internal - aimed at stimulating demand within the country and supporting social needs. External - designed for international trade. It is also cheap, which gives China an advantage: China gets Americans to consume its cheap goods, which helps it accumulate a gigantic dollar reserve (approximately 2 trillion dollars - the first place in the world). With this money, China builds infrastructure facilities, buys Natural resources(especially from Africa), buys property around the world, US government bonds. So the main negotiating topic between Obama and Hu Jintao was the economy, within the framework of which the interdependence of China and the United States becomes disproportionate not in favor of the United States. All this affected the foreign policy sphere. Obama did not allow himself to talk about the self-determination of Taiwan and recognized the integrity of China, did not touch upon the problem of Tibet, and also did not put pressure on China in the field of human rights. And a month before his visit to China, Obama did not meet with the Dalai Lama, who was flying to the United States. Obama had to recognize the country's right to self-determination within the framework of national characteristics. Thus, he explained that all censorship, of course, is evil, but at the same time, each country has its own traditions, essentially recognizing the right to exist of Chinese censorship. Agreement was reached only on the DPRK nuclear issue. Both China and the United States are against the DPRK possessing weapons of mass destruction. But on the Iranian nuclear issue, Beijing made it clear to Washington that it would not support the possible imposition of sanctions against Iran at the UN. It can be said that this meeting fully demonstrated that the United States lacks leverage over China, and indeed that China is in no way inferior to the United States, and moreover, occupies a somewhat advanced position.
Zbigniew Brzezinski put forward the concept of the “Big Two,” in which the United States has no other powerful potential ally than China. And these two countries must divide spheres of influence in the world and build new order forces based on interaction with each other. Brzezinski based his concept on China's "peaceful rise" concept, which states that "China is turning to propaganda harmonious society and sustainable development, creates an image of a strong, peace-loving country, ready to share its prosperity with others.” But as far as one can tell, this concept is propaganda that is aimed at calming the world. And China will inevitably have to expand its expansion in order not only to develop, but to maintain the existing level of development. And it seems to me that China did not agree to Brzezinski’s concept, as demonstrated by the recent meeting between Obama and Hu Jintao. China agrees that it will be an independent country that does not need anyone's alliance.
To confirm this, China is pursuing a tough domestic policy (it harshly suppresses the slightest rebellion), actively pursuing its economic expansion in the world, solving the problem of Taiwan, competing with India, subordinating Russia and Africa to its influence, and conducting an equal dialogue with the United States. China, in addition to the economic and political, is intensively pursuing policies in the financial sphere; for example, it has achieved the expansion of quotas in the World Bank and the IMF for developing countries, of which it considers itself one of the first. As for the problem of Taiwan, China, using the same economic levers, is trying to integrate Taiwan into its economy, which it is successfully doing - economic integration is at a high level. Transport communications (sea and aviation) are developing very actively. Intensification occurs political contacts. All this is greatly enhanced by the victory in the presidential and parliamentary elections in Taiwan. socialist party, which considers Taiwan to be Chinese territory. As for relations with India, they are smoothing out thanks to trade, but remain tense. China fell out with India when it granted asylum to the Dalai Lama. Now the rivalry is manifested in the struggle for the Indian Ocean. India is building a large military base in the Maldives, while China is building large ports in Burma, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, where Chinese military vessels can be based. China suspects that India's nuclear cooperation with the US is directed against it. But in general, the struggle for the Indian Ocean is necessary within the framework of the struggle for Africa. India is also trying to wedge itself into the process of dividing African sources of mineral supplies.
A separate topic is the relationship between China and Russia. The topic is so voluminous that it can be covered even in in brief within the framework of this work is not possible, so I will describe only the latest events. In September of this year, a cooperation program for 2009-2018 was approved between the regions of the Far East and Eastern Siberia of Russia and the northeast of China. The heads of countries signed it in New York, and in October the Russian Prime Minister, while on a visit to China, discussed aspects of cooperation within the framework of this program. In my opinion, this program is a deep mistake by the Russian authorities. In accordance with the program, it is planned to jointly develop deposits of a wide range of minerals in Russia and export them to China. In China, the development of deep manufacturing industry will take place. Cooperation will take place according to the scheme “our raw materials - your technologies”. This is explained by the fact that in Siberia and the Far East there are no conditions for the creation of a processing industry and the introduction of high technologies, since there are no labor resources, as well as the necessary infrastructure. Chinese workers will participate in the development of the fields, and entire towns will be built for them. Transport links will be established: China will build highways from its territory to processing plants in Russia, flights will be organized, for example, Dalian - Khabarovsk, Dalian - Irkutsk, and so on. It seems to me that given the tendency for Russia to become a raw materials appendage of China, such cooperation becomes dangerous, because it cannot be equal when in China in the second quarter of 2009 GDP grew by 8%, and in Russia it fell by 10%. Reduction in numbers Russian population in Siberia and the Far East against the backdrop of increasing Chinese migration of workers, could lead to significant distortions in the ethnic structure of the population not in favor of Russia. If the program is implemented in full, then this, in my opinion, will lead to the fact that the economy of the Far East will be firmly integrated into the Chinese economy, and on the real basis of the functioning of territorial production complexes. In fact, the Far East will come under the control of China, and breaking ties in the event of conflicts will be fraught with danger for the Far Eastern economy, which will be completely tied to China. The Chinese population in the Far East will exceed the indigenous population, transport links will be better developed with China than with the European part of Russia, and most importantly, the economic complex will be fully integrated into the Chinese economy. These are the prospects for cooperation between China and Russia, once again indicating the growing power of China described above.
China, despite the concept of “peaceful rise” and other similar documents, continues to steadily increase the power of its armed forces. The growth in aircraft costs is approximately three times higher than the growth in GDP. China conducts regular large-scale exercises of all types of troops. China has developed a space exploration program. There is a build-up nuclear potential. Against this background, negotiations are being held between nuclear powers around the world to reduce nuclear forces. And if (in addition to and independently of the main countries of the USA and Russia) Britain and France agree to reduce their meager warhead stocks, then China will have to take similar steps, since against the backdrop of the potentials of these countries, China’s nuclear forces are enormous. If China refuses such measures, then this will run counter to the “peaceful rise” program, which will be incomprehensible to the world community. China's military doctrine includes the concept of "strategic boundaries and living space." In accordance with it, it is recognized that the growing population of China, as well as the reduction of resources, inevitably causes natural needs to expand space in order to ensure the normal functioning of the life of the state. Living space is the actual territory of the state, and strategic boundaries are determined by the complex power of the state and its influence. And possible fighting should be transferred to the strategic border zone. And the reason for military action could be “difficulties in ensuring legal rights and China's interests in the Asia-Pacific region."
Thus, calculations from military doctrine confirm what I described at the beginning of the work. It turns out that China adheres to a program of action that holistically determines the synchronous development of all spheres in the state. Economic and political aspirations are aimed at strengthening the power of the state in the external sphere, to create conditions for prosperity Chinese people, and all this is supported by the corresponding doctrine of the armed forces.
To summarize, it must be said that China has a large tangle of internal problems. These include distortions in the economy and social sphere - high-tech production coexists with backward agricultural production, developing in an extensive way. The developed and wealthy population of cities coexists with huge masses of rural poverty. Against this background, there is a positive demographic growth, which cannot be provided with appropriate resources due to the limited capabilities of the natural environment of China. With the growth of industrial production, this same natural environment plunges into a state of large-scale environmental disaster. Because of China's size, its population, its economy, and its degree of interaction with the world, China's problems inevitably become the world's problems. China has become a model demonstrating the possibilities of growth and its limits. In this regard, Malthusianism, which considered such a model for the entire planet, becomes relevant. China is an indicative example of what awaits humanity in the future. In the meantime, based on all this, we can conclude that in order to maintain the existing level of development, and even more so to progress further, China vitally needs expansion. He started it, but for now it’s an economic one. It will continue as long as the existing system of international economic relations exists. With its possible collapse or deep crisis, China will not be able to develop in an isolated state for long, and then the need for large-scale territorial expansion will become urgent.
Investors in Lately are showing increasing interest in the countries of East Asia - China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, notes the German newspaper Handelsblatt. Before the financial crisis, most foreign investment flowing into Asian countries, accounted for the states of Southeast Asia (SEA), which were leaders in economic growth rates. Foreign investors were attracted by the stability of their economy, cheap labor and falling trade barriers. After the crisis, the situation changed dramatically: the Asian east receives 10 times more investment than the south. The changing situation is evidenced by the fact that over 80% of enterprises acquired in 2000 by foreign investors in Asia were located in the Asian East.
More than half of the capital investments directed to Asian countries from the United States and Western Europe comes from China. If in 1990 less than 20% of foreign investments in the Asian economy came to this country, but recently - over 50%.
The newspaper provides a number of examples of the penetration of Western capital into this region, in particular in China, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. Motorola is set to invest $1.9 billion in a Chinese chip manufacturing facility to meet China's rapidly growing demand for mobile phones. The objects of foreign investment are both Japanese and South Korean banks experiencing financial difficulties. Thus, the companies "GE Capital", "Lone Star Capital" and others have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in financial institutions in Japan.
Multinational corporations, Handelsblatt believes, do not intend to leave Southeast Asia. However, such rich countries and territories as Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan, as well as China with its huge population, according to German experts, have significantly greater potential for attracting foreign investors. The Republic of Korea, Taiwan and China overcame the consequences of the financial crisis much faster than the Southeast Asian countries, which are also becoming more and more politically unstable. China is attracting large foreign investors with its upcoming accession to the WTO.
Export geography in 1999 - USA 22%, Hong Kong 19%, Japan 17%, Germany, South Korea, the Netherlands, Great Britain, Singapore, Taiwan.
There are also other reasons for the movement of financial flows from south to east Asia. Thus, the wage level of a worker even in a wealthy Chinese city is two times lower than, for example, in Bangkok. The average manager's salary in the Philippines is about 50% higher than in Shanghai.
While states located in eastern Asia are becoming increasingly integrated into the world economy, countries in the south are becoming isolated from it. In Malaysia and Indonesia, the state controls capital transactions. Thailand has frozen plans to privatize public sector enterprises; the Philippines, due to a huge budget deficit, is unable to obtain the necessary IMF loans. On the contrary, the East is gradually removing barriers to foreign investment. Thus, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan allowed the sale of banks to foreigners and eliminated limits on the participation of foreign investors in the capital of firms in almost all sectors of the economy. Japan is opening up access to foreign capital in the telecommunications and electricity industries (in addition to the financial sector and the automobile industry).
The level of its technological development also plays a certain role in attracting Western investment to the Asian East. While in the Republic of Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong 20% of the population has access to the Internet, in Thailand this figure is 1.6%, and in the Philippines - 1%.
Geography of imports in 1999 - Japan 20%, USA 12%, Taiwan 12%, South Korea 10%, Germany, Hong Kong, Russia and Singapore.
Prospects for strengthening the PRC economy. One of the most significant events in the world economy in the second half of the last century there was an impressive rise in China associated with reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping. Over 20 years, China's GDP has grown 5 times, household incomes have grown 4 times, 270 million Chinese have significantly increased their well-being and managed to overcome the poverty threshold.
However, the standard of living in China remains low: the national income per capita is only $950 per year. China's share of world trade reached its 1939 level. only in 1993 A negative phenomenon was the widening gap in the incomes of the wealthy and the poor.
In the next 20 years, China has a real chance of becoming the second most economically powerful state in the world. The standard of living will reach that registered at the present stage for the average resident of the Republic of Korea or Portugal. The preconditions for such progress will be created, in particular, by China's accession to the WTO, negotiations on which have been ongoing for 15 years. This significant event will most likely occur at the end of 2001. or 2002. During the five-year period, many tariff and non-tariff barriers will be eliminated, and foreign capital will gain access to a number of sectors of the national economy, such as banking, telecommunications services and distribution operations. China has pledged to implement strict measures to protect intellectual property and abolish the requirement for foreign investors in China to require a minimum share of local raw materials and components in the cost of products produced by the joint venture.
WTO reforms are just the beginning of a new stage of broad changes in the Chinese economy. The government is guided by a policy of liberating business from excessive state tutelage, transferring many enterprises from state-owned to private sector, the creation on the basis of currently operating plants and factories of corporations that can withstand competition, including from foreign producers. It is planned to strengthen financial markets outside the state banking system, which finds itself in a relatively difficult situation, and their reorientation to serve business entities that are most deserving of lending. The most important direction state economic policy will be the development of infrastructure - road and railway, as well as fiber optic, with the expectation that for the first time in history, remote parts of the country will be covered by nationwide infrastructure networks, as a result of which a single economy will be formed with high degree integration of individual parts.
The government is making efforts to create new sources of domestic demand, in particular through the privatization of the housing stock. In large cities, 40% of the population are already homeowners. Measures are being taken to develop a simple and effective tax system, use information technologies to prevent abuses in the sphere of national and local government, to combine individual initiatives in a coherent system social area, aimed at paying benefits to 5 million people who annually lose their jobs in state-owned enterprises and pensions.
Local and foreign analysts are of great interest in assessing the consequences of the implementation of all these plans for the national economy. State statistics does not provide a reliable basis for accurate forecasting. Economic growth figures tend to be overstated. Local authorities are trying to embellish the situation in the territories under their jurisdiction. There are widespread cases when some of the products of Chinese enterprises do not find sales and are replenished in warehouses. However, such production is regularly included in the calculation of gross product. It is quite difficult for analysts to determine the extent to which GDP is overstated. According to most, last year's increase of 8% should probably be adjusted downward by 1-2 percentage points.
Research group" Morgan Stanley“believes that if China complies with its WTO obligations and its government’s firm focus on market reforms, the average annual growth of China’s GDP in 2001-2005 will be 7%, in 2006-2015 - 9% (the results of restructuring will affect), and later the rate of economic development will slow down. By 2020, China's GDP should increase to $10 trillion (at the dollar exchange rate recorded at the end of 2000), i.e., the Chinese economy will become approximately the same size as the American one at present. per capita will reach $6,700. If transformations in China are carried out faster than provided for in the agreements with the WTO (in particular, due to increased pressure from foreign partners), then GDP growth may increase in 2006-2015 to 10% per year. , and the GDP will reach $10 trillion by 2015.
One of the consequences of joining the WTO will be sharp increase number of foreign direct investment arrangements. In 2000 obligations for new investments of this kind increased by 1/3. The influx of such investments has reached a cumulative total of 350 billion dollars, with a significant annual increase of 40 billion. Only two countries in the world - the USA and Great Britain - have managed to attract a larger volume of investment from other countries (1.1 trillion and 394 trillion, respectively). billion dollars). Brazil and Mexico, although they opened their markets much earlier than China, are inferior to it in this regard. China attracted 1/3 of all investments flowing into emerging market countries. Almost 80% of all foreign direct investment flowing into East and Southeast Asia (excluding Japan) occurred in 2000. to the share of the only recipient - China. The lag of his neighbors is causing them growing concern.
Traditionally, the bulk of foreign capital invested in the Chinese economy is directed to export industries. Since the late 70s, China's trade turnover with foreign countries has grown from an insignificant (for such a large power) value to $475 billion in 2000. The growth rate of world trade during this period was much lower. Firms with foreign capital currently account for half of all exports from China. As the weekly Economist notes, foreign investment has helped transform China into a “huge export machine.” The country will remain a significant exporter in the future thanks to the almost limitless potential of extremely cheap labor resources, including those with high educational qualifications. According to the Economist, computer engineers in China earn about 10 times less than, for example, in Taiwan with almost the same level of training.
China's manufacturing industry is gradually moving to the forefront and becoming more capital-intensive. Researchers note that even with the transition to the production of increasingly complex industrial products (for example, semiconductor technology and information technology equipment, for which China managed to become the 3rd largest manufacturer in the world), China does not lose its advantages in the production of such relatively cheap and labor-intensive products such as toys, textiles and shoes. Due to the scale of production and low wages, China successfully competes with other Asian exporters of these goods (Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, etc.), actually pushing them out of the world market. The development strategy of most of China's neighbors is based on an export model, so China's foreign trade expansion is perceived quite negatively by them. Moreover, there are serious concerns outside East and Southeast Asia, such as India and Mexico. It is noteworthy that the last of the named countries agreed with great reservations to China’s accession to the WTO, stipulating its admission to a number of additional conditions. (Admission to the WTO is subject to the mandatory consent of all its participants.)
At first glance, China's economy is undoubtedly export-oriented. The ratio between exports and GDP reaches a significant value - 23%. In terms of export volume, China ranks 9th in the world. However, according to most analysts, the export sector is not sufficiently integrated with domestic economy. Firms wholly or partially owned by foreigners absorb approximately 50% of all imports and are the source of half of China's exports. Many export enterprises are simple production facilities for assembling products from imported components and subsequent export to other countries, often through Hong Kong. The export sector, with a dominant position of foreign capital, especially in special economic zones, is considered by researchers as a kind of enclave, somewhat reminiscent in its characteristics of the “maquiladoras” enterprise zone in Mexico, which stretches near the American border. It is no coincidence that many experts conclude that China is poorly integrated into the world economy. Isolation results in additional costs. Technologies and management experience brought by foreign firms are not absorbed quickly or easily by local companies. At the same time, economic growth is constrained by the persistence of many elements of the prescriptive management system, trade barriers and local protectionism, as well as the absence of a real capital market. The Economist believes that joining the WTO will help create an optimal competitive environment within China and will significantly limit the role of the administrative-command system.
In the open sector of the economy, TNCs have already become the most important “players” in the field of entrepreneurship. McDonald's and Kentucky Fried Chicken have established nearly 700 factories in China. Kodak has secured half of the film and photographic paper market, with Fuji owning almost the rest. Procter & Gamble has become the largest supplier to China shampoo market. Foreign companies, primarily Motorola, Ericsson and Nokia, have reserved 95% of the mobile phone market. This activity is due to the fact that China is the largest market for products such as microtelephones. Coca-Cola believes that China will soon become its largest market in Asia. According to some estimates, foreign participation in the Chinese economy at the present stage is approximately 10%. According to experts, admission to the WTO will lead to a doubling of this figure.
Despite all the positive developments over the past 20 years, China is not sufficiently integrated into the global trading system. Moreover, there is a lack of integration at the intra-Chinese level. Therefore, one of the most important tasks facing China at the present stage is the unification of disparate elements of the national economy. (A similar problem faced, for example, the United States at the end of the 19th century.) Indeed, it is abnormal that sending a container from Shanghai to American Seattle takes less time than from Shanghai to another large industrial center of the same country - Chongqing, located on Yangtze River in the depths of China. Ten years ago, China did not have a nationwide highway system connecting individual provinces. Currently, the length of such roads exceeds 12 thousand km ( detailed information I indicated about connecting transport routes in section 2.4. course work). The number of passenger flights on civil aviation tripled, the number of new subscribers to the fixed telephone network in 2000 reached 36 million, and mobile communications- 42 million. Landline telephones are available in 17% of families, and in the 90s the number of subscribers increased 30 times. The spread of the Internet is extremely small, but the number of users doubles every year. The national economy is turning into a single complex, facilitated by the introduction of information technology.
Great prospects are opening up in the field of financial integration. Until recently, four banks acted as lenders to state-owned enterprises. Currently, the network of banking institutions has expanded significantly. According to experts, the role of the public sector in the national economy has decreased to 50%, however, it accounts for more than 70% of fixed assets and 80% working capital in the manufacturing industry. In such conditions, the role of the private sector is assessed by the weekly "Economist" as "limited."
The government developed radical measures to develop the stock market and reorganize state-owned banks. The debt-for-equity swap helped reduce the burden of bad debts in the banking system by 1.4 trillion. RMB In the future, loans will be provided only to financially reliable enterprises. The stock market is playing an increasingly important role in financing producers. If in 1999 through it funds were mobilized totaling 440 billion yuan, then in 2000. - already 620 billion. At the same time, the participation of foreign capital exceeded 180 billion. The issue and offering for sale of shares of such large associations as Petrochina and China Mobile was preceded by their restructuring, which made them more compliant with global standards.
Reforms in China and the growth of its economy should have a positive impact on the entire region, especially at a time when countries in East and Southeast Asia are experiencing Negative consequences from the slowdown in US development. As for China, a significant decline in this country is not predicted.
Even in the event of a global economic downturn, China will develop relatively steadily, if only because of the size of its economy. Only in 2000 Chinese imports grew by a huge amount - $55 billion, which indicates the transformation of the PRC economy into a powerful factor in the development of the entire region. As for the threat to Asian producers posed by Chinese suppliers, overcoming it almost entirely depends on the states themselves of this region: The implementation of delayed structural reforms should help solve problems associated with external factors.
In the long term, a rapidly developing China is also seen as a source of threat by influential groups in the United States. The development of US-Chinese relations is complicated by the presence of a positive balance in bilateral trade in favor of China in the amount of $60 billion. However, ties between the two countries have become so complicated and diversified that when analyzing them one should not give unambiguous assessments. For example, it must be taken into account that the sales volume of American firms operating in China is currently almost the same as all exports from the United States to China. Investment flows are comparable to trade flows.
Isolating China from the global economy could be a serious blow to American interests. In addition, according to Morgan Stanley calculations, in the next 15-20 years, reforms in China should produce an economic effect of approximately 40 trillion. dollars, while foreign entrepreneurs, and primarily American ones, can count on approximately 8 trillion. of them.
The development of economic ties actualizes the need for reforms in the PRC and increasing the degree of openness towards the outside world. In such conditions, the development of informal contacts cannot actually be restrained. It is noteworthy, for example, that 50 thousand Chinese are studying at American universities at one time. Already, the number of Chinese citizens who received education in the United States exceeds the number of Chinese who graduated from Soviet universities. There is a growing complexity and diversification of ties in many areas. Such trends will contribute to China's integration into the world economy.
China is a socialist country with a planned economy. However, this does not bother foreign investors. Political and economic system China is stable and the influx of foreign capital is growing every year. From 1980 to 1998 the influx of foreign capital increased almost 4 times. As of mid-1998, there were more than 314.5 thousand enterprises in the Middle Kingdom with the participation of foreign capital. Contract volume of investments - 545.37 billion dollars6
The main direct investors in the Chinese economy are Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao and Singapore, i.e. the countries where the largest number of Chinese people live. Entrepreneurs in Taiwan
[Hong Kong, Macao, Singapore are the main investors in the Chinese economy. Their contribution amounts to 60-80% of the sum of all contributions from business circles in all other countries of the world.
IN last years Taiwan has become the second investor in the PRC economy after Hong Kong, and after Hong Kong's inclusion in China's geopolitical system, it has become the number one investor.
Chinese exports are growing rapidly: by about 25-30% annually. If in 1979 less than 10% of the country's GNP was formed in foreign trade, in 1993 - almost 36%, then in 1998 (as of July) - more than 45%7. In the first half of 1998, the total volume of foreign trade turnover of the PRC reached 151.4 billion dollars: exports amounted to 87, and imports - 64.4 billion dollars. In connection with the crisis in Southeast Asia, China was actively developing markets in Europe, - Africa, Latin America. China's exports to the EU in 1998 increased by 25.5: to the USA - by 18.1%, to Africa - by 44.7%, Latin America - by 38.1%, etc.3
China, like Japan, has a trade surplus with the United States (more than $30 billion per year) and ranks second in size after Japan.
Any geopolitical tension between China and the United States will help strengthen Japanese-Chinese ties and strengthen Japanese capital in the Asia-Pacific region. This threat serves to align the strategic interests of the United States and China. In addition to economic interests, “works” to bring the two countries closer together historical memory Chinese and Americans - the memory of the crimes of the Japanese on the eve and during the Second World War.
Relations between Japan and China began to develop in the 60s, during the “cold” and especially the “hot war” between the USSR and China (battles on Damansky Island), China and Vietnam. Japan acts primarily as a creditor, and is now the main trading partner of China, which is most often the buyer of Japanese equipment, technology and goods. Of course, Japan seeks to restrain the growth of Chinese technical, technological and export potential, not allowing its neighbor into the traditional markets for its products. Japanese-Chinese economic and trade relations worsened in the second half of the 90s of the late 20th century: Island state is experiencing depression, annual GDP growth in Japan does not exceed 2%, and Chinese economy, despite the severe financial and economic crisis in the Asia-Pacific countries, gave and continues to give GDP growth of 10-8% per year9.
Therefore, although the PRC and Japan are interested in developing bilateral economic and trade relations, at the same time they act as competitors in the markets of the Asia-Pacific region, ASEAN, the USA, Africa, Europe, etc.
England, Germany, France and Italy are increasing the sale of their goods in China. But in recent years they have begun to pay more attention to the growth of direct investment in the economy of this country.
The relations of the PRC with the ASEAN countries and the “four little dragons” are characterized by processes of competition, attraction and repulsion. Nevertheless, in relations with the “small dragons” the main line is the establishment of economic and production cooperation. Competition prevails when it comes to ASEAN countries. ASEAN countries fear a military threat from China. According to Western experts, Taiwan has developed a long-term program that provides for its transformation into an Asia-Pacific regional economic center capable of taking a central place in the Asia-Pacific region and even in the world. They intend to make Taiwan the operating base for investment and business activities of local and foreign companies. In addition, according to the program developers, it should become the center of manufacturing, financial, telecommunications and transport activity in the Asia-Pacific region, i.e., become a leader in the development of regional economic integration10.
China also has a similar plan - the “Pudong Plan”. It involves the formation in the Shanghai area of a gigantic (covering 100 million people) international industrial, financial, trade, transport and cultural center, capable of taking a leading role in the APR11. We dwell on this issue because in the 21st century, most likely there will be a unification of two Chinas into one and then it will turn into: the most powerful financial and economic empire
