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Financial risks, their classification and features

Risk classification

Risk classification issues are a rather complex problem due to their diversity.

Since the main task is to assess the degree of risks, their classification according to well-defined criteria will be useful in solving the problem.

The nature consequences risks are divided into clean andspeculative.

Peculiarity net risks(they are sometimes called statistical or simple) lies in the fact that they almost always incur losses for entrepreneurial activity. They can be caused by natural disasters, accidents, incapacity of company managers, etc.

- speculative risks, which are also called dynamic or commercial, carry either losses or additional profits for the entrepreneur. Their reasons may be changes in exchange rates, changes in market conditions, changes in investment conditions, etc.

By sphere of origin, which is based on the scope of activity, distinguish the following types risks:

- production risk associated with the failure of the enterprise to fulfill its plans and obligations for the production of products, goods, services, other types of production activities as a result of the impact of both the external environment and internal factors;

- investment risk

Depending on from the main reason risk occurrence, they are divided into the following categories:

Natural and natural risks are risks associated with the manifestation of the elemental forces of nature;

Environmental risks are associated with the onset of civil liability for damage to the environment;

Political risks are the possibility of incurring losses or reducing the size of profits, which are a consequence of government policy;

Transport risks are associated with the transportation of goods by various modes of transport;

Property risks are risks from the loss of an entrepreneur's property for reasons beyond his control;

Trade risks depend on losses due to delayed payments, non-delivery of goods, refusal to pay, etc.

A large group of risks is associated with purchasing powermoney... These include:

From damage or destruction of products during transportation;

As a result of the mistakes of the company's employees;

Caused by the transfer of commercial information by employees of the company to competitors;

Due to non-fulfillment of obligations by subcontractors;

As a result of possible death, illness or accident with a manager or senior employee of the firm.

Two more should be highlighted large groups risks: staticcue (simple) and dynamic (speculative). Peculiarity one hundredstatistical risks lies in the fact that they almost always incur losses for entrepreneurial activity. At the same time, losses for an entrepreneurial firm, as a rule, mean losses for society as a whole.

Static risks are associated with probable losses due to;

Negative action on the company's assets by natural disasters (fire, water, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.);

Criminal acts;

Adoption of unfavorable legislation for an entrepreneurial firm (losses are associated with direct seizure of property or with the inability to recover compensation from the culprit due to imperfect legislation);

Threats to the property of third parties, which leads to the forced termination of the activities of the main supplier or consumer;

Death or incapacity of the leading employees of the firm or its main owner (which is associated with the difficulty of recruiting qualified personnel, as well as with the problems of transferring property rights).

Unlike static risk dynamic risk carries either a loss or a profit for the entrepreneurial firm. Therefore, it can be called speculative. In addition, dynamic risks that translate into losses for an individual firm can simultaneously bring benefits to society as a whole. Therefore, dynamic risks are difficult to manage.

It was previously noted that risk as an economic category is an event that may or may not occur. In the event of such an event, there are three possible economic results: negative (loss, damage, loss), zero, positive (profit, benefit, gain).

A risky situation is associated with statistical processes and it is accompanied by three coexisting conditions: the presence of uncertainty, the need to choose an alternative and the possibility of a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the likelihood of a particular option.

Let us dwell on the first condition in more detail. Considering the activity of a certain economic system, it should be borne in mind that it is always associated with uncertainty in the most different areas and at the most varied stages of its development. The presence of uncertainty in the activity of economic systems leads to the emergence of risks, without which it is impossible to effectively develop the economy.

RISK SYSTEM

Classification of a single economic risk flow

Economic condition for a long time human communities and states to one degree or another depended on the frequency and scale of natural disasters. However, this dependence in conditions of sparsely populated, low degree of urbanization and underdevelopment of the technogenic sphere was small.

With an increase in the population, with an increase in its density, economic development of new territories and the development of the technosphere, natural disasters began to cause more and more tangible damage. Earth civilization in modern world has become very vulnerable and, as many representatives of the world scientific community believe, is experiencing the beginning of a civilization crisis. The global problems also include the problems of natural and man-made safety we are considering.

Now the world community, led by the UN, has developed a new approach to overcoming the crisis of civilization - the transition to sustainable development. However, the steps taken in this direction have not yet yielded results. Natural disasters also make their negative contribution to the fact that the transition of states and the world community to sustainable development is not yet feasible.

Over the past 40 years, the total direct economic damage from only the most destructive natural disasters has increased more than 15 times, and their number, with damage over $ 1 billion, has quadrupled. According to some experts, in the second half of the XX century. the rate of growth of damage exceeded the rate of growth of production of the gross product.

According to some pessimistic forecasts, by 2010 the economic damage in the world from disasters in average annual terms may reach $ 150 billion, tripling the same indicator in the 1990s, and the value of the gross product produced during this time will increase only 1.7 times. If we agree with the above assessment, then we can conclude that in the near future the world economy will not be able to compensate for the damage from the entire set of disasters occurring on the globe. Even with a more moderate approach to assessing what is happening, one cannot deny the significant economic impact of natural and man-made disasters on the life of modern civilization.

The results of recent scientific research on the economic aspects of the impact of disasters on the global and Russian economic systems, as well as the accumulated experience in solving economic issues of disaster management, one can judge a number of characteristic features of this problem, which is denoted by the term “natural risks”.

Natural risk is the likelihood of adverse consequences of the impact of environmental factors on human society(population, organizations, communication lines, etc.).

TO main sources the occurrence of natural risks include:

1. Cosmogenic extraordinary events, which include the fall of asteroids to the earth, the collision of the Earth with comets and cometary showers, the collision of the Earth with meteorites and fireballs, magnetic storms.
2. Geophysical extraordinary events, which include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions.
3. Geological extreme events: landslides, mudflows, landslides, talus, avalanches, slope washout, subsidence of loess rocks, landslides, abrasion (the process of destruction and demolition of the coast by waves and sea surf), erosion (destruction of the fertile soil layer), dust storms ...
4. Meteorological and agrometeorological emergency events, the main of which are storms, hurricanes, tornadoes (tornadoes), squalls, vertical eddies, large hail, heavy rains, heavy snowfalls, ice, frost, blizzards, heat, fog, drought, dry wind, frost ...
5. Marine hydrological emergency events - tropical cyclones (typhoons), tsunamis, strong waves and fluctuations in sea level, intense ice drift, impassable ice, ice formation on ships, separation of coastal ice.
6. Hydrological emergency events - floods, lowering of the water level, early freeze-up on navigable water bodies and rivers, rising groundwater levels (flooding).
7. Natural fires - extreme fire hazard, forest, steppe and peat fires, underground fires of fossil fuels.
8. Infectious diseases of people, animals, plants.

First of all, it can be argued with sufficient reliability that there is an outstripping growth in damage from natural disasters in comparison with the dynamics of growth in their number. Naturally, this indicates an increase in their average statistical scale and an increase in their negative impact on economic life organizations, society, state.

It should also be borne in mind that the decisive contribution to the amount of damage is made mainly not by large natural disasters, but by small adverse natural phenomena. This is due to the fact that natural disasters, with high single damage, rarely occur, and therefore their total damage is small. Disasters on a small scale, on the other hand, occur frequently, they are very numerous and their total damage is enormous. It should be noted here that we are not talking about very rare major disasters of national and global proportions. The USSR, for example, received as a result of an accident in 1986 at Chernobyl nuclear power plant direct economic damage in the amount of $ 10 billion, Japan suffered $ 100 billion in damage from the 1995 earthquake, and the countries of Western and Central Europe lost $ 18 billion during floods in 2002.

Another feature of this problem, which is in many ways paradoxical, is that the economic damage from disasters is steadily increasing in both developing and developed countries. This is happening despite the fact that over the last few decades of the end of the XX century. developed nations have built efficiently functioning disaster management systems. However, this does not mean that disaster management is futile. Apparently, at this stage of this struggle, the efforts of developed countries are not so effective as to significantly affect the reduction in the rate of growth of damage.

As another characteristic feature the problem of natural risks can be called the dominance in the economic damage of the share of damage from natural disasters. In 1970-2006. all unfavorable and dangerous natural phenomena and processes, including natural disasters, accounted for about 70 ~ 75% of the total damage from all disasters. At the same time, in terms of their number, natural disasters did not exceed 40% of the total number of disasters.

A characteristic feature of the problem under consideration is also a decrease in the number of deaths in natural disasters and a simultaneous increase in the number of victims. Compared to the 1970s, the number of deaths over the past decade has decreased by 3 times, and the number of victims has increased in the same proportion. This indicates some success in disaster protection, when the level of severe injuries is decreasing, but due to an increase in overall vulnerability and the transition of a part of potentially dead to the category of injured, the number of the latter is increasing.

The economic aspects of disasters are not limited to the problem of damage from them. The creation of state and other systems for countering disasters, ensuring the functioning of these systems, including their equipment and remuneration of workers, preventive measures to prevent disasters and reduce possible damage from them, emergency rescue and other urgent work in the course of eliminating the consequences disasters, etc.

Such a close and important relationship between natural risks and economics urgently requires that it be comprehensively taken into account in management.

Like any element of the external environment that has a direct impact on the efficiency of the organization's functioning, natural risks need rational, purposeful, scientifically grounded management.

Natural risk management should be based on a systematic approach to making management decisions, developing procedures and implementing practical measures in order to prevent emergencies, reduce their scale and take protective measures during the elimination of their consequences.

V general case natural risk management includes the development and justification of optimal activity programs designed to effectively implement safety solutions. The main element of these efforts is the process of optimal distribution of limited resources spent to reduce various types of risk in order to achieve such a level of safety for the population, social, political and economic institutions, and the natural environment, which is only possible in the existing economic and other conditions.

In general, when we mean the development and implementation of a set of various measures to manage a set of interrelated natural risks, we can talk about security management in a particular area. Safety management in the event of a threat and in the event of emergencies is a broad concept that includes not only measures to prevent emergencies and mitigate their consequences, but also measures to prepare for repelling realized threats.

Natural risk management is based on an integrated approach, when the maximum possible number of significant components and their interrelationships are taken into account. This accounting is possible through system analysis. Therefore, the adoption of management decisions should always be preceded by system analysis, which is a set of methods and tools for researching complex, multilevel and multicomponent systems, objects, processes. It relies on an integrated approach, taking into account the relationships and interactions between the elements of the system. We emphasize once again that system analysis plays an important role in the development and adoption of management decisions, in fact it is part of management activities.

In the process of management natural risks the following main tasks are solved:

1) identification of hazards for land use and livelihoods of the population in the considered territory (territory of active economic activity and finding people) consists in identifying significant sources of natural hazards - unfavorable and dangerous natural phenomena and processes. The totality of hazard sources is an integral part of the conditions of land use and vital activity of the population living in the territory under consideration;
2) to assess the threat as a measure of the possibility for specific objects to be exposed to damaging factors from the sources of hazards, information is needed not only on the frequency (recurrence) of adverse and dangerous natural phenomena and their distribution in strength, but also on the spatial distribution of hazardous factors in relation to the objects of influence (population, objects of the technosphere);
3) long-term (for 50-100 years) forecasting of threats at a given moment (interval) of time. To solve this problem, models of the dynamics of indicators (characteristics) of hazard are required;
4) an assessment of the risk of emergency situations in the territory under consideration and its forecast for a given moment (interval) of time. The value of the risk in this case is defined as the product of the probability of the threat being realized over a certain time interval by the amount of possible negative consequences;
5) analysis of individual risk to the population. When considered as damage to human life, natural risk means the individual probability of death from a combination of natural hazards, taking into account the spatial and temporal factors of the individual's possible presence in the territory under consideration;
6) comparison with acceptable risk. The assessment or forecast of the individual risk is compared with the value of the acceptable risk, which is justified taking into account the economic and social factors... Based on the comparison, a conclusion is made about the state of life safety in the territory under consideration. In addition to the individual probability of death, in some cases it is advisable to use such a safety indicator as the average life expectancy;
7) rationale for protective measures: to reduce the risk to an acceptable level, decisions are made on preventive protective measures. At the same time, taking into account the influence on the individual risk of various factors (the type of negative events, their frequency, strength, security and vulnerability of objects in relation to damaging factors, the mutual arrangement of hazard sources and objects of influence), as well as the costs of implementing measures to reduce the negative impact of individual factors, rational measures are justified to reduce natural risk to the lowest possible level.

An important condition effective management natural risks are the development quantitative methods their estimates.

For risk assessments quantitative indicators are needed. They should ensure the comparability of the degree of danger of its various sources, the state of safety for various types of activities and categories, and in general an assessment of the state of life safety in a certain area.

As a rule, the concept of risk is associated with the possibility of relatively rare events. In this case, the risk is often identified with the probability Q (At) of the occurrence of these events within the time interval At (as a rule, for a year). The probability Q (At) acts in this case as a measure (indicator) of risk, convenient for comparing the risks for one object (subject) from different events or for different objects (subjects) in their typical conditions of functioning (activity).

The risk is also associated with the amount of damage from a hazardous event (for example, a hazardous natural phenomenon - flood, earthquake or accident - explosion, fire), as a rule, in kind (the number of victims and deaths, the size of the zone of action of hazardous factors) or value terms. Thus, the risk combines the likelihood of an adverse event and the amount of negative consequences of this event (losses, losses, damage).

Russia, being a country with a vast territory, containing several geographic zones and natural zones, has an extremely wide variety of geological, climatic and landscape conditions and therefore is subject to an almost complete set of all kinds of unfavorable and dangerous natural phenomena and processes - more than 30 species. 350-400 natural hazards occur in Russia per year.

Seismically active zones cover vast areas Of the Far East, Transbaikalia, North Caucasus where the intensity of earthquakes can reach 9 points. On the aggregate territory of the CIS member states, seismic zones occupy about 40% of the area, where about 25% of the total population lives. In this territory, for the most seismically active regions (Pamir, the eastern coast of Kamchatka), the average interval between earthquakes with an intensity of 7 points and above does not exceed 10-15 years, for the Transcaucasia it is 15-30 years, and for other regions, including Russian , slightly exceeds the indicated values.

Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands are the places of manifestation of another dangerous geophysical phenomenon - volcanic activity. The zone of this activity in the Kuril Islands, especially on the islands of Iturup and Paramushir, includes settlements. There are also a number of settlements in Kamchatka. The minimum distance from some of them to active volcanoes is about 25 km. Only in the Kuriles during the XX century. 56 eruptions occurred, which indicates a real volcanic threat.

For many territories of Russia, especially mountainous, geological hazardous natural phenomena are characteristic: landslides, landslides, avalanches, karsts, abrasion, erosion, etc. These phenomena take place in the regions of the North Caucasus, the Urals, Eastern Siberia, Primorye, Sakhalin Island, Kuril Islands, The Kola Peninsula, as well as along the banks of large rivers.

Landslide, mudflow and avalanche hazards are especially great. Landslides and mudflows are typical for the Caucasus, the mountains of the southern regions of Siberia and the south of the Far East. The incidence of landslides, mudflows of the territory of certain regions of the North Caucasus, the Volga region, Transbaikalia, Sakhalin reaches 70-80% of their total area... In the Russian Federation, approximately 725 cities are affected by these processes. The regions of the Caucasus, Khibiny, Sakhalin are annually exposed to avalanche danger. In these areas, about once every 10-11 years, there is a massive avalanche. Avalanches are less frequent in the Sayan Mountains, the mountains of Chukotka and Kamchatka.

Relatively less dangerous, mainly due to the lower volumes and speeds of the simultaneous movement of masses of rocks and water, are the processes of plane and ravine erosion, abrasion of the shores of reservoirs and seas, soil swelling. They do not lead to the death of people, but the economic losses from their development can be comparable (as a rule, due to the irreversible loss of land) with other more dangerous natural phenomena.

The country also loses on the fact that annually more than 500 million tons of fertile soil is demolished from the arable slopes. The area of arable land every year only due to the development of ravines is reduced in Russia by 100-150 thousand hectares, the average total increase in the length of the ravine network is 20 thousand km.

Most of the emergencies both in our country and in other CIS member states are caused by dangerous meteorological, agrometeorological, hydrological phenomena: storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, squalls, downpours, snowfalls, icy ice, severe frost, extreme heat, droughts, floods. Marine hydrological phenomena are also dangerous, especially typhoons and tsunamis.

Strong winds bring many troubles to Russia. Tornadoes are fraught with especially great material damage and human casualties. The largest number of tornadoes is observed in the Black Sea off the coast of the Caucasus, in the Rostov region, Central Black Earth and Central regions, less - in the Urals and only a small number - in the south of Western Siberia.

Cyclones, accompanied by strong winds and blizzards, ice and snow drifts, cause significant damage in winter to the northern industrial regions. Snowstorms of great strength occur on the plains of the European part of the country and in the steppe part of Siberia.

Heavy storms are widespread throughout the European part of Russia at sea and on land.

Large-scale dust storms characteristic of the southern steppe regions of the country are also dangerous. The northern border of the distribution of dust storms passes through Saratov, Samara, Ufa, Orenburg and the foothills of Altai.

The process of land desertification is observed on the territory of Russia. Now the total area covered by this process is 50 million hectares. Desertification is especially typical for Kalmykia, where the first desert in Europe arose with an area of about 1 million hectares.

Droughts are typical of large-scale natural disasters in Russia. In the Volga region and the North Caucasus, droughts occur every 2-3 years. Somewhat less often - every 3-5 years - they are observed in the Central Black Earth Region and Eastern Siberia. In the Non-Black Earth Region and Western Siberia, the probability of droughts is less - once every 3-10 years. The losses from droughts are enormous. The lack of grain relative to the average gross harvest in years of severe droughts reaches 25%.

The analysis shows that in terms of damage to the country, floods are in the first place. Moreover, this disaster is one of the most frequent. Floods are manifested in the form of floods, rain floods, wind surges, and also occur as a result of congestion and jam. Intense rainfall is the predominant cause of flooding. In the Chita, Amur, Sakhalin regions, Khabarovsk and Primorsky territories, large-scale floods for this reason occur approximately every 5 years. Floods during the spring snowmelt occur on almost all rivers in Russia, but most often they are observed on the rivers of the northeast and east of the European part. Because of ice jams, floods are especially likely on Siberian rivers and northern rivers of the European part of the country. St. Petersburg, Kaliningrad, Rostov-on-Don, Arkhangelsk and other cities located at river mouths are often flooded due to wind surges from the sea. In general, the threat of floods exists in Russia for several thousand settlements, including more than seven hundred cities. The total area of floodplain lands, periodically flooded by river and lake waters, is about 500 thousand square meters. km. In extremely high-water years (1926 and 1966), the total flooded area reached 150 thousand square meters. km, and in normal years - 50 thousand square meters. km.

The economy of the Far East is regularly damaged by tropical cyclones (typhoons). On average, 2-5 typhoons fall on the Pacific coast of Russia per year. V separate years their number reaches 8. In the period from July to September, the likelihood of the appearance of intense typhoons is greatest. The passage of typhoons is accompanied by storm surges, downpours, severe floods, landslides, mudflows.

Significant threat to the population of the zone The Pacific carries such a formidable marine hydrological phenomenon as a tsunami. Over the past 90 years, more than 100 tsunamis have been observed here, reaching a dangerous intensity, including about 20 off the coast of Russia.

Such a disaster as forest fires is traditional for Russia. The scale of forest burnout and the amount of damage caused by fire are great. Regular monitoring of forest fires and a systematic fight against them are carried out mainly in the zone of active forest protection, covering about two-thirds of the total area of the forest fund (16 million hectares). In the northern regions of Siberia and the Far East, where one third of the forest fund is located, active fire control and fire accounting are still insufficient. Due to the prolonged dry weather on the territory of Russia, in the active forest protection zone, from 10 to 30 thousand fires occur annually on an area of 0.5 to 2.1 million hectares. The most severe fire seasons repeat 2 ~ 3 times in ten years. Moreover, in 2-3 regions of the country with the most unfavorable weather conditions, forest fires take on the character of a natural disaster.

There are also foci of natural infection - plague, smallpox, cholera, anthrax and others dangerous diseases people and animals. From time to time, such a formidable pest as a locust reminds of itself.

The foregoing indicates that the risk of adverse natural events, natural disasters, and even natural disasters on the territory of Russia is very large. Therefore, managing this risk is important task for the state, local government and public structures.

This classification of key elements and priorities of activity forms the "skeleton" necessary for further identification of risks. The list of main priorities of activity indicates the main guidelines for determining the causes and factors of the occurrence of risk situations.

In addition to identifying key elements and priorities for action, it is also necessary to unambiguously formulate the main constraints. The object of management is a business process, project or type of activity that is subject to risk management. When determining the context of risk management, it is necessary, first of all, to establish the basic requirements (restrictions) to the object of management as an activity.

The range of limiting factors can be quite wide. As an example, Figure 14 shows the main constraints for a "typical" project associated with the development of a new type of product at a manufacturing enterprise.

The specification of the requirements for the project is given in table 5/1 /.

Figure 14. A set of requirements for a project for the development of a new type of product

Table 5. Specification of requirements for a project for the development of a new type of product

Limitation	Explanation
Project quality	The output of the project (for example, a new type of product) must meet the functional requirements and specified technical characteristics.
Industry Requirements	The output of the project must comply with the mandatory industry requirements for this type of product.
	Financial resources required for implementation of this project must correspond to the cost side of the budget.
Resource availability	The technological process for the production of a new type of product should be designed in such a way that only existing industrial equipment and technological equipment are used in the production.
Economic expediency	The project must have a positive business case as measured by profitability and payback rate.
	The project must be completed on time.
Training	The implementation of the project should contribute to the growth of the professionalism of the organization and the skills of the personnel.
Ecology and safety	The technological solutions of the project should take into account the need to prevent pollution environment; Project processes must ensure high standards of professional safety for employees.

Risk identification

Risk identification refers to actions aimed at determining the parameters of a risk situation (what can happen, where, when, how and why?)

The purpose of risk identification is to compile a complete list of risks that may affect the achievement of the organization's objectives within an integrated management system. This list should be as complete as possible, since unidentified risks can pose a significant danger to achieving the goals set, cause a loss of control over the IMS processes and lead to the loss of promising opportunities.

The causal relationship between the main components of risk identification is shown in Figure 15/5 /.

The reasons for the risk are the source of the emergence of the risk situation.

For example, the instability of the economic situation in the country gives rise to the potential risk of delay in the repayment of the company's receivables.

Risk factors are the conditions in which the causes of risk are manifested, leading to the emergence of risk situations.

As a follow-up to the previous example, it can be established that the delay in the payment of receivables was due to an uncontrolled increase in inflation against the background of an unstable macroeconomic environment at the state level. V in this case the risk factor is the uncontrolled growth of inflation.

A risk situation is an event caused by causes and risk factors that can lead to negative or positive consequences.

The lack of financing of the organization from the debtor company illustrates the concept of a risky situation.

The type of risk characterizes the source of the emergence of a risk situation. In other words, the type of risk determines which stakeholder is the “initiator” of the risk situation.

In this example, the type of risk is external, since its "initiator" is an external interested party - the debtor company.

The detection method characterizes the way a risk situation is detected.

The lack of funding is detected by the financial and economic service of the organization by monitoring the current account and contractual obligations between the organization and the debtor.

The characteristics of the risk situation are determined by the time and structural parameters of the risk occurrence.

In our example, the lack of funding may arise at the stage when the debtor fulfills its obligations.

Consequences are the results of a risk situation if realized.

The considered risk situation leads to negative consequences for the organization, for example, to the disruption of time characteristics (terms) during the implementation of a business process or project.

Figure 15. Determination of the relationship between the components of risk identification.

A comprehensive risk list can be developed as part of a systematic risk management process, which should begin with the formulation and definition of the risk management context (see previous section). To ensure the effectiveness of risk identification, it is recommended to approach a business process, project or activity in a sequential way. Figure 16 shows the basic algorithm for developing such a procedure. This algorithm is a series of sequential questions. The answers to them allow you to develop an effective procedure for identifying risks. The level of detail in the issues depends on the status of the risk management process in the context of the activities to which it applies.

Risk identification is one of the basic and fundamental elements of risk management. When identifying risks, the determining factor is the quality of the information used / 5 /. The quality of information is determined by the following main parameters:

Credibility;

Objectivity;

Timeliness;

Relevance;

Completeness of coverage.

Consultation with teams of professionals with experience in implementation of activities within which risk management is carried out;

Experience of competitors and other third parties;

SWOT analysis and marketing research results;

Reports on insured events;

Results of internal and external audits;

Results of inspections of technology for the implementation of business processes;

Historical records, incident databases, problem analyzes, and previous risk lists (if any).

When identifying risks, it is also necessary to determine the scheme for their classification. Classification of risks makes it possible to divide them into homogeneous clusters, which makes it possible to systematize risks. The need for classification is due to the fact that the main reason for the emergence of a risk situation is the uncertainty of the business environment - both internal and external.

Risks can be classified according to various criteria. At the same time, it is necessary to strive not so much to list all types of risks, but to create a certain basic scheme that would allow not to miss any of them. Within the framework of this publication, a classification of risks by type of entrepreneurial activity is presented:

Manufacturing (production of goods and services);

Commercial (sale of goods and services);

Financial (cash flow management).

Figure 16. Basic algorithm for developing a risk identification procedure

Classification of risks of commercial and financial activities of the enterprise

For these types of entrepreneurial activities, the most common and often used is the classification scheme of risks proposed in / 3 /. It is based on the division of all risks according to the homogeneity of the consequences of a risk situation (Figure 17): pure (non-financial), speculative (financial) and mixed (commercial) risks.

Figure 17. General classification of risks in the activities of commercial and financial structures

Net (non-financial) risks are associated with the occurrence of risk situations that do not directly arise in the processes of movement of financial flows, but have a significant impact on them. Net risks can be divided into the following types (Figure 18):

- natural;

- political;

- social;

- transport.

Figure 18. Classification of net (non-financial) risks

Natural and natural risks - risks associated with the manifestation of the elemental forces of nature.

Political risks are associated with political situation in the country and with the activities of the state. Political risks arise when the conditions of the production and trade process are violated for reasons that do not directly depend on the enterprise.

Political risks / 3 /:

- The impossibility of carrying out entrepreneurial activities due to hostilities, exacerbation of the internal political situation in the country, nationalization, confiscation of goods and enterprises, the introduction of an embargo due to the refusal of the new government to fulfill the obligations assumed by its predecessors, etc.

- Introduction of a deferral (moratorium) on external payments for a certain period due to the onset of extraordinary circumstances (war, etc.);

- Prohibition or restriction of the conversion of the national currency into the currency of payment. In this case, obligations to exporters can be fulfilled in national currency having limited scope applications.

Political also includes tax risk - the possibility of an unfavorable (for a commercial and industrial enterprise) change in tax legislation - tax risk is quite common and has a significant (often negative) impact on the results financial activities organizations.

Social risks - risks associated with the instability of the social situation in the state; instability can be caused by the activities of social and public organizations (for example, strikes at enterprises initiated by trade unions).

Transport risks - risks associated with the transportation of goods by various modes of transport.

Figure 19. Classification of tax risk

Speculative (financial risks)- risks that characterize losses (decrease in profit, income, decrease in capitalization, etc.) in a situation of uncertainty in the conditions of the financial activity of the enterprise / 1,3 /. Financial risks are classified into two main types (Figure 20).

Figure 20. Classification financial risks

In turn, the risks associated with the purchasing power of money are divided into the following types (Figure 21).

Figure 21. Classification of risks associated with the purchasing power of money

Inflation risk is caused by the possibility of depreciation of the real cost of capital, expressed in the form of monetary assets, as well as expected income and profit due to inflation.

Inflation risks operate in two directions:

- Raw materials and components used in production are becoming more expensive than finished products;

- The company's finished products are becoming more expensive than competitors' prices for a similar type of product.

Deflationary risk is the risk that, with an increase in deflation, the price level will decrease, economic conditions entrepreneurship and reduced income.

Currency risk - the danger of currency losses as a result of changes in the exchange rate against the currency of payment in the period between the signing of a foreign trade or credit agreement and the payment on it. The currency risk is based on the change in the real value of the monetary liability in the specified period. For example, an exporter incurs losses when the currency of the price depreciates in relation to the currency of payment, since he will receive a lower real value in relation to the currency of payment. At the same time, the paying organization receives a profit from the currency depreciation, since the value paid by it in the exporter's currency is lower than the value in the payment currency. Thus, fluctuations in exchange rates lead to both negative and positive consequences, depending on the specifics of the subject of management in risk management.

Liquidity risks are the risks associated with losses during implementation valuable papers or other goods due to changes in the assessment of their quality and use value.

Investment risks (risks associated with capital investment) express the possibility of unforeseen financial losses in the process of investment activities of the enterprise / 3 /. So investment risks are associated with the possible loss of enterprise capital, they represent a group of the most dangerous risks in the activities of commercial and financial structures. Investment risks include the following types (Figure 12):

- lost profits;

- decrease in profitability;

- direct financial losses.

Figure 22. Classification of investment risks

The risk of lost profit is the risk of indirect financial damage (in other words, the risk of lost profit) due to the failure to perform any action (insurance, investment, etc.).

The risk of a decrease in profitability may arise as a result of a decrease in the amount of interest and dividends on deposits and loans, as well as on portfolio investments (Figure 23).

Figure 23. Classification of risks of reducing profitability.

Portfolio investments are associated with the formation of an investment portfolio and represent the acquisition of securities of other assets. The term “portfolio” comes from the Italian word “portofolio” - a set of securities that an investor has.

Interest rate risks pose the risk of loss of funds by credit and financial institutions as a result of exceeding interest rates paid by them on borrowed funds in relation to the rates on loans provided. Interest rate risks also include risks of investment losses due to changes in dividends on shares, risks of interest rates on the market for bonds and other securities.

Credit risk is the risk of the borrower not paying the principal and interest due to the lender.

Figure 24. Classification of risks of direct financial losses

Risks of direct financial losses are divided into the following main types (Figure 24):

- exchange risk;

- selective risk;

- the risk of bankruptcy;

- advance risk;

- turnover risk.

Exchange risks represent the danger of losses from exchange transactions. These risks include the risk of non-payment for commercial transactions, the risk of non-payment of the brokerage firm's commission, etc.

Selective risks are a group of risks caused by the wrong choice of types of capital investment or securities for investment.

The risk of bankruptcy is a danger (as a result of the wrong choice of the type of capital investment) of a complete loss by the entrepreneur of his own funds and his inability to pay off his obligations.

Advance risks arise upon the conclusion of any contract if it provides for payment for the product by the customer after its production. The essence of advance risk is manifested if the company (seller, risk bearer) incurred certain costs in the production (or purchase) of goods, which at the time of production (or purchase) were not compensated by anything. When a company does not have an efficiently established turnover, it always bears upfront risks, which are expressed in the formation of warehouse stocks of unsold goods.

The turnover risk assumes the possible occurrence of a shortage of financial resources during the period of regular turnover. In other words, at a constant rate of product sales, an enterprise may have different turnovers of financial resources.

Commercial risks represent the danger of losses (losses) in the process of carrying out financial and economic activities / 3 /. Commercial risks are classified into the following types (Figure 25):

- property;

- production;

- trading;

- social and environmental;

- information security.

Figure 25. Classification of commercial risks

Property risks - the danger of property loss due to theft, sabotage, negligence, failure of technological systems, etc.

Production risks - possible losses from stopping or disruption of the technological process in production due to the impact of various factors and, first of all, loss or damage to fixed and working assets (equipment, raw materials, transport, etc.), as well as risks associated with the implementation of production of new technologies. The classification of types of industrial risks is presented in the next section.

Trade risks - losses due to delays in payments, refusal to pay during transportation and / or shortage of goods, etc.

Social and environmental risks - the possibility of paying fines, compensations, as well as the possibility of a decline in the company's reputation due to environmental pollution; as well as dangers to employees of the enterprise as a result of its production activities.

Information security risks - the danger of unauthorized leakage of confidential information about the production and financial activities of an enterprise, which can lead to financial losses.

Classification of risks of production activities of the enterprise

For the production activities of the enterprise, the most common and often used is the classification of risks proposed in / 3 /. This classification provides for the division of risks into the following main groups:

- production;

- personnel;

- in the sphere of circulation;

- in the field of management.

Production risks consist of the risks of the main, auxiliary and supporting production activities.

The risks of the main production activity are due to:

- violations of technological discipline;

- accidents, fires, catastrophes, etc .;

- unscheduled shutdowns of equipment and interruption of the technological cycle of the enterprise.

The consequences of the listed risks are shortfall in profit and the occurrence of direct losses.

Examples of risks of ancillary production activities:

- power outages;

- lengthening of terms Maintenance and repair production equipment;

- breakdown and accidents of auxiliary production systems.

The consequence of these risks is a decrease in the volume of production.

Risks of supporting production activities:

- failures in the work of services that ensure the uninterrupted functioning of the main and auxiliary production (for example, warehouse and transport facilities);

- malfunctions of information systems, etc.

The consequence of these risks is the deterioration of the economic situation of the enterprise.

Personnel risks arise in the process of human resource management at the stages of recruitment, training, training and motivation of employees of the enterprise. The consequence of personnel risks is a decrease in the competitiveness of the enterprise due to the lack of qualified personnel at various levels of management.

Risks in the sphere of circulation are due to:

- violation by suppliers and partner enterprises of the delivery schedules for raw materials and components;

- refusals of consumers to pay for ordered products;

- bankruptcy of the organization's business partners.

Management risks are classified into two groups:

1) at the level of strategic decision-making:

- erroneous choice of the goals of the organization;

- incorrect assessment of the strategic potential of the enterprise;

- erroneous forecast of the development of the general economic situation in the state;

- overestimation of the company's resource capabilities, etc.

2) at the level of making tactical decisions:

- distortion or partial loss of meaningful information during the transition from strategic to tactical planning;

- discrepancy between tactical decisions and strategic ones.

Figure 16 shows the classification of risks for the production activities of the enterprise.

Methods, tools and technology for risk identification are discussed in detail in / 1, 2, 4 /.

Figure 26. Classification scheme of risks of production activities of the enterprise

Literature

1. Guidance on risk management / D. A. Martynkovsky, A. V. Vladimirtsev, O. A. Martynkovsky; Certification Association "Russian Register". St. Petersburg: Beresta, 2007.

2. The combined standard of Australia and New Zealand AS / NZS 4360: 2004 "Risk management".

3. Stupakov VS, Tokarenko GS Risk management. Moscow: Finance and Statistics, 2005.

4.HB 436: 2004. Risk Management Guide. AS / NZS 4360 Reference: 2004. - Jointly published by Standards Australia International Ltd. and Standards New Zealand, 2004.

5. Guide to the integration of management systems / D. A. Martynkovsky, A. V. Vladimirtsev, O. A. Martynkovsky; Certification Association "Russian Register". St. Petersburg: Beresta, 2008.

Risk classification

In the course of their activities, entrepreneurs are faced with various risks that differ from each other in the place and time of occurrence, the totality of external and internal factors affecting their magnitude, and, consequently, in the methods of their analysis and methods of influence. Accordingly, there are many approaches to the classification of risks, which differ in the basis of the classification.

The effectiveness of the organization of risk management (see clause 1.4) is primarily determined by the correct risk identification according to a scientifically developed classification system. Such a system includes categories, groups, types, subspecies and varieties of risks (see Fig. 1.1) and creates the prerequisites for the effective application of appropriate methods and techniques of risk management. Moreover, each risk has its own risk management technique.

Let's discuss in more detail foundationsclassification scheme shown in Figure 1.1.

First of all, depending on the possible result(risk event) risks can be divided into two large groups: pure and speculative.

Net risks mean the possibility of obtaining negative or null result ... These include risks natural, ecological, political, transport and part of commercial risks (property, production, trade).

Speculative risks expressed in the possibility of obtaining both positive and negative result ... These include financial risks that are part of the commercial risks.

Depending on the underlying cause of the occurrence (basic or natural trait ), the risks are divided into the following categories: natural, ecological, political, transport and commercial .

To natural-natural include the risks associated with the manifestation of the natural forces of nature: earthquake, flood, storm, fire, epidemic, etc.

Environmental risks Are the risks associated with environmental pollution.

Political risks connected with the political situation in the country and

state activities... Political risks arise in case of violation of the conditions of the production and trade process for reasons that do not directly depend on the economic entity .

Transport risks - these are the risks associated with the transportation of goods by transport: road, sea, river, rail, airplane, etc.

Commercial risks represent risk of losses in the process of financial and economic activities ... They mean the uncertainty of the result of a given commercial transaction.

Structurally commercial risks are divided into property, production, trade, financial .

Property risks - these are the risks associated with the likelihood of property loss citizen / entrepreneur because of theft, sabotage, negligence, overvoltage of technical and technological systems etc.

Production risks- these are the risks associated with a loss from production interruption due to the influence of various factors and, above all, with the loss or damage of fixed and circulating assets (equipment, raw materials, transport, etc.), as well as the risks associated with the introduction of new equipment and technology into production .

Trading risks represent the risks associated with a loss due to delays in payments , refusal to pay during the transportation of goods , non-delivery of goods etc.

Rice. 1.1. Risk classification

Financial risks connected with the likelihood of loss of financial resources .

Financial risks are divided into two types:

1) risks associated with the purchasing power of money ;

2) risks associated with capital investment (investment risks ).

The risks associated with the purchasing power of money include the following types of risks: inflationary and deflationary risks, currency risks, liquidity risk .

Inflation risk - this is the risk that, as inflation rises, the resulting cash income depreciates in real purchasing power faster than it grows ... In such conditions, the entrepreneur incurs real losses.

Deflationary risk - this is the risk that with an increase in deflation occurs falling price levels, worsening economic conditions for entrepreneurship and declining income.

Currency risks represent danger of currency losses related with a change in the exchange rate of one foreign currency in relation to another when conducting foreign economic, credit and other foreign exchange transactions .

Liquidity risks - these are the risks associated with the possibility of losses in the sale of securities or other goods due to changes in the assessment of their quality and use value .

Investment risks include the following subspecies of risks:

1) loss risk ;

2) downside risk ;

3) risk of direct financial losses .

Profit loss risk - this is a risk indirect (side) financial damage (unearned profit) as a result of the failure to implement an activity (for example, insurance, hedging, investment etc.).

Risk of decreased profitability may result from reducing the amount of interest and dividends on portfolio investments, deposits and loans.

Portfolio investments connected with the formation of an investment portfolio and represent purchase of securities and other assets ... The term "portfolio" comes from the Italian "porto foglio" in the meaning of the aggregate of securities that the investor has.

Risk of decreased profitability includes the following varieties: interest rate risks and credit risks .

TO interest rate risks concerns the danger of losses that may be incurred commercial banks, credit institutions, investment institutions, selling companies as a result excess of interest rates , paid by them on attracted funds , over rates on loans granted ... Interest rate risks also include risks of loss who can bear investors due with changes in dividends on shares, interest rates on bonds, certificates and other securities on the securities market .

Growth in the market interest rate leads to decrease in the market value of securities , especially fixed interest bonds ... When the percentage rises, it may also start bulk dumping , issued at lower fixed interest rates and, according to the terms of issue, early accepted back by the issuer ... The interest rate risk bears investor who invested medium-term funds and long-term securities with a fixed interest rate at the current increase in the average market interest compared to a fixed level ... In other words, the investor could get an increase in income by increasing interest , but cannot release its funds invested on the above conditions .

The interest rate risk bears issuer issuing into circulation medium-term and long-term securities with a fixed interest rate at the current decrease in the average market interest in comparison with a fixed level ... In other words, the issuer could raise funds from the market at a lower interest rate but he already bound by the issue of securities he made .

This type of risk with a rapid rise in interest rates amid inflation is also important for short-term securities.

Credit risk- danger non-payment by the borrower of the principal and interest due to the lender ... Credit risk also includes the risk of an event in which issuer, issuer of debt securities , it turns out unable to pay interest or principal on them .

Credit risk maybe also a variety of risks of direct financial losses .

Risks of direct financial losses include the following varieties: exchange risk, selective risk, bankruptcy risk, and credit risk .

Exchange risks represent risk of losses from exchange transactions ... These risks include: the risk of non-payment for commercial transactions, the risk of non-payment of the brokerage firm's commission etc.

Selective risks(from lat.selectio - choice, selection) - these are risks wrong choice of capital investment method, type of securities for investment in comparison with other types of securities in the formation of an investment portfolio.

Bankruptcy risk poses a hazard as a result wrong choice of capital investment , complete loss by the entrepreneur of his own capital and his inability to pay for his obligations ... As a result, the entrepreneur becomes bankrupt.

Financial risk represents function of time ... Usually, the degree of risk for a given financial asset or investment option increases over time ... For example, damages importer today depend on the time from the moment of the conclusion of the contract to the date of payment for the transaction, because foreign exchange rates against the Russian ruble continue to grow .

Risk management can be characterized as a set of methods, techniques and measures that allow, to a certain extent, predict the occurrence of risk events and take measures to exclude or reduce the negative consequences of the occurrence of such events .

Risk management is a specific area economic activity, which requires deep knowledge in the field of business analysis, methods of optimizing business decisions, insurance, psychology and much more. The main task of an entrepreneur in this area is to find a variant of action that provides the optimal combination of risk and income for a given project, based on the fact that the more profitable the project, the higher the degree of risk during its implementation.

Risk management is a professional activity that is performed by professional institutions, Insurance companies as well as risk managers, insurance specialists.

Their tasks are: zone detection (areas) high risk ; risk assessment ; analysis of the acceptability of a given level of risk for the organization; development of measures to prevent or reduce risk ; in the event that a risky event has occurred, taking measures for the maximum possible compensation for the damage caused.

Among the main risk management principles the following can be distinguished:

· you can not risk more than you can afford equity ;

· need to think about the consequences of the risk ;

· you can not risk a lot for the sake of small .

The first principle requires the entrepreneur:

Determined the maximum possible amount of loss in the event of a risk event;

He assessed whether the losses would lead to bankruptcy of the enterprise.

Second principle... Knowing the maximum possible amount of loss, make a decision on accepting the risk on your own responsibility, transferring the risk to the responsibility of another person (the case of risk insurance) or rejecting the risk (i.e. from the event).

The third principle requires comparing the expected result (profit) with possible losses in the event of a risk event.

It follows from the above that the main risk management techniques are risk avoidance, risk reduction, risk acceptance .

Avoiding risk means the rejection of the event associated with the risk. But at the same time, there may be losses from unused opportunities.

Reduced risk assumes a decrease in the likelihood and volume of losses. For example, transferring risk to an insurance company, diversifying a portfolio of securities.

Risk taking means leaving all or part of the risk to the entrepreneur. In this case, the entrepreneur decides to cover possible losses with his own funds.

The choice of one or another method of risk management is carried out on the basis of the following basic rules :

Maximum winnings, maximum results with acceptable risk;

The optimal combination of the payoff and the amount of risk, i.e. the option with the highest ratio of income and losses;

The optimal probability of the result, i.e. selection of the option with the maximum gain.

The ultimate goal risk management is to obtain the greatest profit with the optimal ratio of profit and risk acceptable to the entrepreneur.

Risk management (see Figure 1.2) involves the following stages:

1. Collection and processing of data.

2. Qualitative analysis of information involves the identification of sources and causes of risk, stages and work, during the implementation of which there is a risk; identification of practical benefits and negative consequences, etc.

1 - collection and processing of data,

2 - high quality risk analysis,

3 - quantitative risk assessment;

4 - assessment of risk acceptability,

5.11 - assessment of the possibility of risk reduction,

6, 12 - the choice of methods and the formation of options for risk reduction,

8 - formation and selection of options for increasing risk,

7 - assessment of the possibility of increasing the risk,

9, 13 - assessment of the feasibility of risk reduction,

10 - assessment of the feasibility of increasing the risk,

14 - selection of a risk reduction option,

15 - project implementation (risk acceptance),

16 - refusal to implement the project (avoidance, risk)

Rice. 1.2. Risk Management Process Flowchart

3. Quantitative analysis involves determining the likelihood of the occurrence of risk and its consequences, determining the acceptable level of risk.

The most common methods for quantitative risk assessment are statistical methods and methods of expert judgment.

The essence of statistical methods is that the statistics of losses and profits that have taken place in a given area are studied, and the most probable forecast for the future is drawn up. These methods require a significant amount of data and the corresponding mathematical support.

The use of expert assessment methods is to obtain quantitative risk assessments based on processing the opinions of experienced entrepreneurs or specialists.

4. Measures to eliminate and minimize the risk include the following steps:

Assessment of the acceptability of the resulting level of risk;

Assessment of the possibility of reducing the risk or increasing it while increasing the expected return;

The choice of methods to reduce (increase) risks.

Topic 2. Quantitative characteristics and schemes of risk assessment in conditions of uncertainty .

Consequence Matrix. Risk matrix. Analysis of a related group of decisions under conditions of complete uncertainty. Wald's rule. Savage's Rule. Hurwitz rule. Analysis of a related group of decisions under conditions of partial uncertainty. Pareto optimality when considering two characteristics of a financial transaction. Laplace's rule of equality.

Political risks are associated with the political situation in the country and with the activities of the state. Political risks arise when the conditions of the production and trade process are violated for reasons that do not directly depend on the enterprise.

Political risks / 3 /:

- Introduction of a deferral (moratorium) on external payments for a certain period due to the onset of extraordinary circumstances (war, etc.);

Tax risk is also referred to political risk - the possibility of an unfavorable (for a commercial and industrial enterprise) change in tax legislation - tax risk is quite common and has a significant (often negative) effect on the financial results of an organization.

Social risks - risks associated with the instability of the social situation in the state; instability can be caused by the activities of social and public organizations(an example is industrial strike initiated by trade unions).

Transport risks - risks associated with the transportation of goods by various modes of transport.

Figure 19. Classification of tax risk

Figure 20. Classification of financial risks

In turn, the risks associated with the purchasing power of money are divided into the following types (Figure 21).

Figure 21. Classification of risks associated with the purchasing power of money

Inflation risk is caused by the possibility of depreciation of the real cost of capital, expressed in the form of monetary assets, as well as expected income and profit due to inflation.

Inflation risks operate in two directions:

- Raw materials and components used in production are becoming more expensive than finished products;

– Finished products enterprises become more expensive than competitors' prices for a similar type of product.

Deflationary risk is the risk that an increase in deflation will lead to a decline in the price level, a deterioration in the economic conditions of entrepreneurship and a decrease in income.

Liquidity risks are risks associated with losses in the sale of securities or other goods due to changes in the assessment of their quality and consumer value.

Investment risks (risks associated with capital investment) express the possibility of unforeseen financial losses in the process of investment activities of the enterprise / 3 /. So investment risks are associated with possible loss capital of the enterprise, they represent a group of the most dangerous risks in
activities of commercial and financial structures. Investment risks include the following types (Figure 12):

- lost profits;

- decrease in profitability;

- direct financial losses.

Figure 22. Classification of investment risks

The risk of lost profit is the risk of indirect financial damage (in other words, the risk of lost profit) due to the failure to perform any action (insurance, investment, etc.).

The risk of a decrease in profitability may arise as a result of a decrease in the amount of interest and dividends on deposits and loans, as well as on portfolio investments (Figure 23).

Figure 23. Classification of risks of reducing profitability.

Interest rate risks pose the risk of losses by credit and financial institutions of their funds as a result of the excess of interest rates paid by them on borrowed funds relative to the rates on loans provided. Interest rate risks also include risks of investment losses due to changes in dividends on shares, risks of interest rates on the market for bonds and other securities.

Credit risk is the risk of the borrower not paying the principal and interest due to the lender.

Figure 24. Classification of risks of direct financial losses

Risks of direct financial losses are divided into the following main types (Figure 24):

- exchange risk;

- selective risk;

- the risk of bankruptcy;

- advance risk;

- turnover risk.

Selective risks are a group of risks caused by the wrong choice of types of capital investment or securities for investment.

Commercial risks represent the danger of losses (losses) in the process of carrying out financial and economic activities / 3 /. Commercial risks are classified into the following types (Figure 25):

- property;

- production;

- trading;

- social and environmental;

- information security.

Figure 25. Classification of commercial risks

Property risks - the danger of property loss due to theft, sabotage, negligence, failure of technological systems, etc.

Trade risks - losses due to delays in payments, refusal to pay during transportation and / or shortage of goods, etc.

Information security risks - the danger of unauthorized leakage of confidential information about the production and financial activities of an enterprise, which can lead to financial losses.

Classification of risks of production activities of the enterprise

- production;

- personnel;

- in the sphere of circulation;

- in the field of management.

Production risks consist of the risks of the main, auxiliary and supporting production activities.

The risks of the main production activity are due to:

- violations of technological discipline;

- accidents, fires, catastrophes, etc .;

- unscheduled shutdowns of equipment and interruption of the technological cycle of the enterprise.

The consequences of the listed risks are shortfall in profit and the occurrence of direct losses.

Examples of risks of ancillary production activities:

- power outages;

- lengthening the terms of maintenance and repair of production equipment;

- breakdown and accidents of auxiliary production systems.

The consequence of these risks is a decrease in the volume of production.

Risks of supporting production activities:

- failures in the work of services that ensure the uninterrupted functioning of the main and auxiliary production (for example, warehouse and transport facilities);

- malfunctions of information systems, etc.

The consequence of these risks is the deterioration of the economic situation of the enterprise.

Risks in the sphere of circulation are due to:

- violation by suppliers and partner enterprises of the delivery schedules for raw materials and components;

- refusals of consumers to pay for ordered products;

- bankruptcy of the organization's business partners.

Management risks are classified into two groups:

1) at the level of strategic decision-making:

- erroneous choice of the goals of the organization;

- incorrect assessment of the strategic potential of the enterprise;

- erroneous forecast of the development of the general economic situation in the state;

- overestimation of the company's resource capabilities, etc.

2) at the level of making tactical decisions:

- distortion or partial loss of meaningful information during the transition from strategic to tactical planning;

- discrepancy between tactical decisions and strategic ones.

Figure 16 shows the classification of risks for the production activities of the enterprise.

Methods, tools and technology for risk identification are discussed in detail in / 1, 2, 4 /.

Figure 26. Classification scheme of risks of production activities of the enterprise

Literature

1. Guidance on risk management / D. A. Martynkovsky, A. V. Vladimirtsev, O. A. Martynkovsky; Certification Association "Russian Register". St. Petersburg: Beresta, 2007.

2. The combined standard of Australia and New Zealand AS / NZS 4360: 2004 "Risk management".

3. Stupakov VS, Tokarenko GS Risk management. Moscow: Finance and Statistics, 2005.

4.HB 436: 2004. Risk Management Guide. AS / NZS 4360 Reference: 2004. - Jointly published by Standards Australia International Ltd. and Standards New Zealand, 2004.

5. Guide to the integration of management systems / D. A. Martynkovsky, A. V. Vladimirtsev, O. A. Martynkovsky; Certification Association "Russian Register". St. Petersburg: Beresta, 2008.