The most important tool for long-term forecasting of socio-economic social development is planning and analysis population growth. This indicator is most often used to calculate the value of its labor resources, including the volume of needs for them.
When analyzing the state demographic situation, two main indicators are used:
- Mechanical (migration) increase,
- Natural growth.
Shows the difference between the number of deaths and births of people over the period of time under consideration.
For maximum data accuracy, statistics are used in calculations, which make it possible to track the slightest changes. Special bodies statisticians constantly monitor fertility and mortality rates, which have a documentary basis.
Population growth formula
Population growth is determined summing up two indicators:
- The rate of natural increase, which is the difference between the birth rate and death rate for a certain period;
- An indicator of migration growth, reflecting the difference between the number of people arriving in a certain territory and the number of people leaving during the period under review.
Population growth is the difference between the current level of the demographic situation and the level of an earlier period.
The unit of account can be a period of time of a long-term (from 5 to 100 years) and short-term (from several days to 3 - 5 years) nature.
Formula for natural population growth
Natural increase is the difference between births and deaths of citizens. Moreover, if the birth rate is higher than the death rate, then we can talk about expanded population reproduction. If the mortality rate is higher than the birth rate, then there is a demographic decline and narrowed population reproduction.
There is an absolute and relative formula for natural population growth.
Formula for natural population growth in absolute terms can be determined by subtracting the end and beginning of the period from the reproduction volume.
This formula looks like this:
EP = P – C
Here EP is natural increase,
P – number of people born,
C – number of dead people.
Relative assessment of natural increase is carried out by calculating coefficients. In this case, the absolute value is the total number of inhabitants. The formula for natural population growth in relative terms is calculated as the difference between born and deceased citizens over a certain period (that is, the absolute value of natural growth). This difference is then divided by the total population.
Potn. = Pubs. / CHN
Potn here. – relative indicator of natural population growth,
Pubs. – absolute indicator of population growth, calculated as the difference between people born and deaths),
PN – population size.
Examples of problem solving
EXAMPLE 1
| Exercise | At the beginning of the year, there were 50,000 thousand people in the state. At the same time, during the year the birth rate was 1,000 thousand people, and the death rate was 800 thousand people. Determine the absolute and relative rate of population growth. |
| Solution | The formula for natural population growth (in absolute value) will be the difference between births and deaths of citizens per year: Pubs. = P – C Pubs. = 1,000 – 800 = 200 thousand people We calculate the relative population growth rate using the following formula: Potn. = Pubs. / CHN Potn. = 200 / 50,000 = 0.004 (that is, 0.4%) Conclusion. We see that the natural increase amounted to 200 thousand people or 0.4% of the total population. |
| Answer | Pubs. = 200 thousand people, P rel. = 0.4% |
Introduction
1. Economic essence of population statistics
1.2 Types of population groups
1.3 The concept of mechanical and natural movement of the population
1.4 General characteristics of population movements in Russia
2. Population analysis
2.1 Research methods used in population statistics
2.3 Calculation and analysis of indicators of population dynamics in Russia for 2000-2005.
2.4 Population forecast for 2007-2009
3. Purpose of demographic forecasting
Conclusion
Bibliography
Introduction
One of the most important problems of demography is population movement. This is a complex social process that affects many socio-economic aspects of the life of the population.
The movement changes the structure and size of the population. Migration flows (mechanical movement of the population) rush from one region and country to another. Migration provides undoubted advantages to countries and regions that receive and supply labor, but sometimes has an extremely negative impact on the economic and social situation of the country.
Many processes in human life are associated with population migration: resettlement, development of new lands, redistribution of labor resources between cities, regions, and countries.
Natural movement affects demographic situation through processes such as fertility and mortality.
Governments of countries pay considerable attention to their regulation and stimulation (and sometimes restriction). They are studied by a number of sciences, such as demography, statistics, and economics.
The purpose of this work is to consider the very concepts of mechanical and natural movement of the population, to determine the features of this phenomenon for Russia: main trends, problems.
The objectives of this work are:
Study of the demographic situation in Russia;
Analysis of identified problems;
Dynamics of population changes and forecast for 2009.
The relevance of this problem in our country is very great - as a result of the 2003 census, it turned out that in Russian Federation The process of population decline continues.
Neither natural nor migration growth can even stabilize this unfavorable process for our country, not to mention positive population growth. The situation is such that it may be possible to maintain at least some acceptable level of the country’s population and production level only through the intensive involvement of foreign work force.
The events of recent decades have greatly changed the political and social situation in Russia. The more acute the problem of mechanical movement of the population becomes. Migration flows, poorly regulated due to the lack of a well-thought-out legislative framework to limit them, cause great harm to the state - the crime situation worsens, and currency is exported abroad. Labor migration is also a very interesting issue at the moment.
It is labor migration that can make up for Russia’s lack of human resources(not counting, of course, possible immigration to the Russian Federation from CIS countries).
All these issues are very important, and this paper will examine the current situation related to population movement.
The subject of study is indicators of fertility, mortality, life expectancy, marriages and divorces, general population movement, etc.
The object of the study is the Russian Federation.
The work used calculations of indicators of time series and regression analysis.
1. Economic essence
1.1 Objectives of population statistics
Population, as a subject of study in statistics, is a collection of people living in certain territory and continuously renewed through births and deaths. The population of any state is very heterogeneous in composition and variable over time, therefore the patterns of population development, changes in its composition and many other characteristics must be studied taking into account specific historical conditions.
In population statistics, the unit of observation is most often individual as an individual, but there may also be a family. In 1994, when conducting a microcensus in Russia, for the first time not only the family, but also the household was taken into account (as is customary in international practice). Unlike a family, a household is understood as people living together and leading a common household (not necessarily relatives). A household, unlike a family, can also consist of one person who provides for himself financially.
The main characteristics of the population composition that are significant from the point of view of social processes include: education, qualifications, position held, profession, belonging to sectors of the economy, and others. Grouping the population according to sources of livelihood, property relations, and economic burden in the family is of great importance. Social differentiation is revealed by demographic (gender, age, marital status, family composition) and ethnic (nationality, language) characteristics. To solve many social problems, population groups are needed that unite rural residents, city dwellers, and residents of large cities.
The main source of statistical data are current records and one-time observations in the form of complete or sample censuses. Moreover, the primary source of information about the population is censuses. They provide the most complete and accurate information about the population. Current records of births, deaths, arrivals and departures from a given territory make it possible to determine the population size annually based on the results of the latest census.
Population censuses examine the following questions:
· number and distribution of the population across the country, by urban and rural types of population, population migration;
· population structure by gender, age, marital status and marital status;
· population structure by nationality, native and spoken language, and citizenship;
· distribution of the population by level of education, by sources of livelihood, by sectors of the national economy, by occupation and position in employment;
· social characteristics of the population;
· birth rate;
· living conditions of the population.
In the Russian Federation, the legal basis for conducting population censuses is government decrees, specifically adopted upon the proposal of statistical authorities some time before each census, sometimes several years, sometimes months. The State Duma adopted the draft Federal Law “On the All-Russian Population Census” on December 28, 2001.
Between censuses, to obtain important data on demographic and social processes, occurring in society, sample surveys (microcensuses) are usually carried out, covering 5% of the resident population.
The published results of censuses and micro-censuses provide data for the country as a whole, for regions, territories, autonomous republics, urban and rural populations. Thus, information on the composition of the population is updated every five years. Moreover, the most important characteristics calculated at the beginning of each year of the intercensus period. They are obtained by adjusting census data to take into account current changes (births, deaths, changes of residence).
For all the value of this information, there are formidable obstacles to its effective use. The difficulty lies in the fact that there are two autonomous data sets: 1) about the composition of the population; 2) on the production and consumption of various types of social services and consumer goods. The main thing is missing - their docking. It remains unknown how different groups of the population behave as consumers.
There is only one way to solve the problem - conducting special sample surveys, where individual level data on consumption and personal characteristics of respondents would be combined. This approach in state statistics is implemented in the form of a current survey family budgets population. With their help, issues of food consumption and some other components of the consumer budget are successfully studied.
In addition, one-time examinations are carried out as necessary. They are carried out by state statistics services and other organizations and relate to the most pressing problems of consumption and development of infrastructure sectors. Whatever issues such non-continuous surveys concern, for their organization, conduct and use of the results, at least general information about the population structure of a particular territory.
As such information base materials from population censuses and calculated data obtained on their basis for the years of the intercensus period are used. All data on the composition of the population provided by censuses turns out to be the basis for social research; each social problem associated with a specific list of characteristics of the population composition.
Over time, not only the composition of the population changes, but also the principles and methods of studying it. Currently, the principles of population statistics are approaching the international standard.
1.2 Types of population groups
Such a complex population as a population, the individual elements of which have many varying characteristics, cannot be studied without dividing it into separate groups and subgroups. Various types of population groups give an idea of its composition according to different indicators.
First of all, this process is associated with the action of general methodological principles - typological, structural, analytical. Several principles can be noted that are important when constructing population groups:
· the most detailed list of groups is appropriate if this characteristic presented independently, without combination with other characteristics (by age, by profession with a detailed list of professions);
· in the case of combinational groupings, enlarged intervals are used to avoid excessive crushing of the material;
· some characteristics are used as cross-cutting ones, i.e. they participate in almost all combinational groupings of the population. These are gender, age, education, as well as the division of the population into urban and rural;
· in the distribution rows, the values of attribute characteristics are given, if possible, in a ranked sequence;
· to ensure comparability of data, grouping schemes of previous population censuses are preserved, as far as possible and appropriate, or they are presented in a form convenient for comparison by enlarging intervals;
· uniform groupings are used when developing data for different territories of the country;
· if the administrative boundaries of any territory have changed since the previous census, information about this is given in the form of a note, and the information is given in two versions - in terms of common borders and within the boundaries of the corresponding years.
Among the groupings in population statistics, the most prominent are purely demographic ones, which include population groupings by gender, age, marital status, and nationality.
Grouping the population by gender makes it possible to determine the number and proportion of men and women in the total population. This grouping is more interesting for individual regions and districts. Data on gender composition given by territory give an idea of the uniform or uneven ratio of men and women in certain regions of the country. In turn, this ratio often depends on the production direction of the region’s economy. For example, in areas where industries such as coal, oil, and metallurgy predominate, the proportion of men is usually higher than in areas where light or textile industries are more developed.
Grouping by gender is necessarily given in combination with other grouping characteristics (age, social status, education).
Grouping the population by age is also one of the main and most important in population statistics. Age intervals are usually presented in the following variants: one-year, five-year and ten-year. There are groups of people under working age, working age and older than working age.
Grouping by age is constructed both for the entire population, and for men and women, for urban and rural populations, etc.
In any state, people of different nationalities live, therefore, when developing census materials, as a rule, the distribution of the population by national composition is given.
When studying national composition population, the language used by individual nationalities is usually taken into account. So, for example, when developing materials for the micro-census of the population of Russia in 1994, they determined how many people out of 1000 people of each nationality use the language of their nationality and how many use Russian: at home, in an educational (preschool) institution, at work.
Grouping the population by marital status is important in population statistics.
Census materials on this issue may be developed in different ways. Sometimes the number of married and unmarried persons is simply determined. With this division, the last group unites the widowed, the divorced, and those who have not yet married, i.e. this group is very heterogeneous in its composition. More complete and correct presentation the family status is given by a grouping in which persons are distinguished: never married, married (including registered and unregistered), widowed, divorced, separated. These subgroups are distinguished separately for men and women of different age groups, starting from 16 years.
In addition to the purely demographic groupings listed above, statistics develop a number of groupings based on other indicators both for the entire population as a whole and for its individual contingents.
Thus, among people of working age, the number of people employed in the economy and the unemployed is determined first of all.
Grouping the population according to their sources of livelihood is important. On the basis of this grouping in Soviet statistics, a grouping of the population by social status was built, in which, since 1939, the following social groups were distinguished: workers and employees; collective farm peasantry and cooperative artisans; individual peasants and non-cooperative artisans. This group covered the entire population.
In the context of the transition to market relations, such a grouping of the population by social status, naturally, cannot be considered sufficient. It is being finalized, and at present these data are not published in the official statistical yearbook.
When developing population census materials great attention is given to characterizing the level of education of the entire population and the employed. The results of the census provide a distribution of all (aged 15 years and older) and employed people into the following groups of educational levels: higher, incomplete higher, specialized secondary, general secondary, incomplete secondary.
The population by level of education is distributed separately for urban and rural populations, for men and women, for individual nationalities, for the employed population, for individual sectors of the economy and occupations.
1.3 The concept of mechanical and natural movement of the population
Under natural population movement understand demographic events that influence population size naturally. These events include births, deaths, marriages and divorces.
Natural movement can also be defined as a natural regulator biological process all life on Earth, including humans, manifested through indicators such as birth rate, mortality rate, natural increase (determined by the difference between birth rate and death rate).
These indicators determine the total population of the country as a whole. In the context of individual regions, natural and mechanical growth can have different effects on changes in the total population of the country and territory. As a rule, in areas of pioneer development, mechanical influx at the initial stage of formation industrial units, territorial production complexes play big role than natural increase in population change. In old industrial areas, natural growth plays a dominant role.
Among the factors determining fertility and mortality are the following:
1) Sex and age structure of the population.
2) Marriages and divorces.
3) Regional and national traditions.
4) Standard of living of the population:
– cash income and expenses of the population;
– production of consumer goods;
– provision of permanent work;
– development of the healthcare system;
– provision of housing;
- the level of education.
5) Environmental situation.
6) Ability to bear children.
The listed factors are considered in time and space. The degree of their influence varies.
Under mechanical movement population refers to population migration, both voluntary and forced.
In a broad sense, migration (from the Latin migratio - relocation) is understood as any territorial movement of people.
In a narrow sense, migration is the movement of people across the borders of certain territories with a change of place of residence forever or for more or less long time. Persons taking part in the migration movement of the population are called migrants.
When analyzing population migration, it is classified according to a number of criteria:
1. Depending on the nature of border crossing:
1) Internal - within one country between administrative or economic-geographical regions, settlements (migration from city to city, from village to village, from city to village, from village to city).
2) External – associated with crossing the state border. External migration includes emigration and immigration.
Emigration(from Latin emigro - moving out, moving), relocation (voluntary or forced, spontaneous or organized) to another country for permanent or temporary (long-term) residence, in most cases with a change of citizenship.
Immigration(from Latin immigro - moving in), entry (moving in) into the country for permanent or temporary (usually long-term) residence of citizens of another country, mostly with the acquisition of new citizenship.
External migration can also be divided into intracontinental and intercontinental.
2. Depending on temporary signs:
1) Constant.
2) Temporary.
3) Seasonal - temporary, annual movements of people (for example, summer migration to resort areas).
4) Pendulum - regular movements of the population from one settlement in the other to work or study and back.
3. Classification according to forms of implementation:
1) Organized.
2) Spontaneous.
4. Depending on the nature of the reasons for migration:
1) Political.
2) Economic.
3) Social.
5. Depending on the measures taken by the state
1) Voluntary.
2) Forced (forced) – movement of people that occurs for reasons beyond their control.
Labor migration has the greatest impact on the development of society. It covers the working age population and is sometimes called labor migration.
When talking about migration, one cannot fail to mention the “Brain Drain”. This term became widespread in our country relatively recently. “Brain drain” is a complex process related to various branches of science: demography, sociology, economics, geopolitics.
Migration of specialists has different consequences for countries than migration of unskilled workers. Migration of unskilled workers is quite favorable for the donor country, as it allows to reduce unemployment and associated social costs and expenses, and emigrants, by sending part of their earnings to their homeland or bringing it home upon return, thereby supply the domestic economy with foreign exchange resources.
When scientists and specialists, skilled workers and engineering personnel emigrate, the donor country ends up losing. It loses all the capital costs invested in training these personnel. The domestic market is losing its intellectual elite and creative potential.
Among the emigrants, young people aged 30 to 40 predominate, on the one hand, who have already proven themselves to be extraordinary researchers and developers, and on the other hand, who have the age reserve to realize their creative potential. They make up more than 50% of all persons leaving this contingent. In addition, young people who envision the possibility of leaving Russia to improve their education and skills often postpone having children, which naturally leads to a decrease in the birth rate.
Specialties whose holders have the best chance of finding a successful placement abroad (%):
· Physicists 68
Mathematics 60
· Specialists in computer technology 46
· Programmers 42
· Genetics 24
· Chemists 23
· Biologists 19
· Doctors 10
· Philologists 7
· Lawyers 5
· Philosophers and sociologists 3
· Economists 1
There is no effective legislation regulating intellectual property relations in Russia yet. For this reason, many inventions and specialists flowed abroad. According to official data alone, which is available to the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Russian Federation, about 8 thousand Russian scientists work in more than 40 scientific programs Pentagon and US Department of Energy. In this case, Russian equipment is used, as well as the results intellectual activity received in previous years.
Migration is influenced by many factors. Migration factors are a set of objective and subjective reasons that influence the decision to migrate. In modern conditions, the most common classification is one that distinguishes migration factors into economic and non-economic reasons. Assessing the feasibility of migration depends on individual characteristics migrants, from regional factors, national
policies of the country of origin, from the corresponding characteristics of the country of destination, comparing which a person decides to migrate, acting under the influence social environment where he works.
The most important socio-economic function of population migration is ensuring the mobility of the population and its territorial redistribution. It contributes to a more complete use of labor and increased production.
At the same time, population migration has a significant impact on the balance of the labor market, changes the economic and social situation of the population, and is often accompanied by an increase in educational and vocational training, expanding the needs of people participating in migration.
The massive influx of migrants may cause increased unemployment and strong pressure on social infrastructure. Organs local government cannot always cope with the influx of people, problems arise with housing, healthcare, and the criminal situation may not change in better side. This is how migration affects the standard of living of indigenous people.
Speaking about migration, one cannot fail to mention such a category of the population as refugees. Forced migration is one of the problems of our time. According to the UN, by the beginning of 2005 there were about 20 million refugees in the world. National governments, international and intergovernmental, as well as non-governmental organizations are involved in solving this problem.
The Federal Law “On Refugees” gives the following definition of the word “refugee” - a person who is not a citizen of the Russian Federation and who, due to a well-founded fear of becoming a victim of persecution based on race, religion, citizenship, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political is of conviction outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or, being of no nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or unwilling to return to it owing to such fear.
The heterogeneity of refugees suggests dividing them into two groups:
1. Temporary transit, intending to return to their places of previous residence.
2. Irrevocable, involving settlement on the territory of Russia.
A forced migrant is a citizen of the Russian Federation who left his place of residence as a result of violence or other forms of persecution committed against him or his family members, or due to a real danger of being persecuted on the basis of race or nationality, religion, language, as well as on the basis of belonging to a certain group. social group or political convictions that became the grounds for hostile campaigns against a specific person or group of people, mass violations of public order.
A forced migrant can also be recognized foreign citizen, or a stateless person permanently residing legally in the territory of Russia.
1.4 General characteristics of population movements in Russia
In terms of population, Russia ranks seventh in the world. In 2008, our country had a population of 142.008 million people. Moreover, over the 19 years since the 1989 census, the population has decreased by 5 million people (including in urban settlements - by 4.2 million people, in rural areas - by 0.8 million people).
Let's analyze population movements based on data from the Demographic Yearbook of Russia for 2003.
75% of the natural population decline is compensated by migration; in terms of its volume, Russia ranks third in the world. According to this indicator, we are second only to the USA and Germany. The overwhelming majority (three quarters) of migrants are Russian-speaking people from CIS countries.
The ratio of urban and rural population in the Russian Federation remained at the 1989 level and amounted to 73% to 27%. Moreover, approximately a fifth of the townspeople live in millionaire cities, of which there are 13 in Russia.
80% of Russia's population - 116 million people - are Russian. Six peoples have crossed the million mark: Tatars, Ukrainians, Chechens, Bashkirs, Chuvashs and Armenians.
In general (Fig. 12-18 Appendix), experts describe the demographic situation in the country as favorable. There are 89 million citizens of working age. At the same time, 26.3 million are under working age, and 29.8 million are older. By 2010, according to experts, the population will decrease to 138 million people, and the numerical level of the working-age population will fall below the critical level.
The number of unregistered marriages has doubled compared to the previous census - from 5% to 10%. More than a third of all children live in such families. The average age of the father increased to 26.2 years, and of the mother to 25.5, while previously there were two children per woman, but now there are only 1.3.
The number of people who have never been married or divorced has increased by 40%. The number of divorced marriages is 800 thousand per year compared to 583 thousand in 1989. More than a third of marriages break up after lasting less than five years.
According to census data, there are 67.6 million men and 77.6 million women living in Russia, that is, there are 1,147 women per 1,000 men (1,140 in 1989). The predominance of women begins at the age of 33, average age was 37.7 years.
The main reason for the decline in the number of Russians is the steady natural population decline.
The trend towards natural population decline raises serious concerns. So that the country does not fear for its future, each woman should have at least two and a half children. In Russia this figure is 2 times less.
As a result of the excess of the number of deaths over the number of births, the population of Russia decreased in 1992-2003 by 9.6 million people, or 6.4% (for example, in 1980-1991, on the contrary, it increased as a result of the excess of the number of births over the number deaths by 8.4 million people, that is, by 6.1%).
Migration growth in Russia was particularly intense in the mid-1990s, but even at that time the natural decline was not fully compensated.
Over the entire period of population decline, the registered migration increase amounted to 3.5 million people, that is, 2.3% (for the period from 1980 to 1991 - 2.0 million people, or 1.5%).
The natural decline intensified in the late 1990s. In 2000, it reached 953.7 thousand people, which is -6.6 per 1000 permanent population. By 2003, natural decline decreased to 887.1 thousand people, in 2001 - by 10.4 thousand people (1.1%), in 2002 - by 8.5 thousand people (0.9%), in 2003 - by 48.2 thousand people, that is, 5.2%!
However, after a slight increase in 2002, the downward trend in migration population growth resumed.
In 2001, it amounted to 72.3 thousand people, or 0.5 per 1000 population (213.6 thousand people (1.5 per 1000 population) in the previous year, 2000). Below this, the migration growth of Russia's population over the past 27 years (before that, Russia was losing population in migration exchanges with the Union republics) was only in 1991 (51.6 thousand people) and 1980 (63.4 thousand people, respectively).
In 2002, migration growth, however, increased slightly, amounting to 77.9 thousand people (0.54 per 1000 population), but 2003 was characterized by a rapid reduction in the registered migration growth of the population. It decreased by 2.2 times, amounting to 35.1 thousand people, that is, 0.25 per 1000 people. (Data for January-February 2003 are presented in Table 1 of the Appendix).
Population trends in Russian regions are still very heterogeneous:
In some regions the population is growing due to both natural and migration growth (Nenets, Khanty-Mansiysk, Yamalo-Nenets), while in many others it is declining as a result of both natural decline and migration outflow.
Some regions (the republics of Sakha (Yakutia), Tyva, Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria, Kalmykia; Chukotka, Evenki Autonomous Okrugs) while maintaining natural growth are characterized by migration outflow of the population. In most European regions, the migration influx to one degree or another compensates for the natural population decline.
In 2003, natural growth was observed in only 16 Russian regions. It was highest in the Chechen Republic (1.9%), as well as in the republics of Ingushetia and Dagestan (1.1% each); in other regions the natural increase was 0.8% or lower.
In 41 regions, the intensity of natural population decline exceeded the Russian average level, and in 16 of them it exceeded 1%, and in the Pskov, Tula, Tver and Novgorod regions - 1.4%.
The highest migration growth in the past year was in the Moscow and Leningrad regions (0.9% and 0.8%, respectively). The third place in this classification is occupied by the Belgorod region (0.7%), followed by Moscow (about 0.5%) and Khanty-Mansiysk autonomous region (0,4%).
Migration outflow turned out to be characteristic of Chukotka (3.5%), Magadan region, Taimyr and Evenki Autonomous Okrugs (in the latter it was 1.2%, 1.9%).
In total, 129.1 thousand immigrants were registered in 2003, while in 2002 this figure was 184.6 thousand people. That is, in 2003, 55.5 thousand people (30.0%) less came to Russia than in 2002. These were mainly immigrants from the CIS and Baltic countries (more than 94%).
94.0 thousand people left the country in 2003, which is 12.7 thousand people, or 11.9% less than in 2002 (in 2002 the number of emigrants was 106.7 thousand people).
The number of emigrants from Russia heading outside the CIS and Baltic countries in recent years has become equal to the number leaving for the CIS and Baltic countries.
The intensity of interregional migration can be judged by the number of arrivals and departures per 1000 population.
In 51 regions, the intensity of entry in 2003 was higher than the national average - 14.9 per 1000 population. It was highest (30 entrants per 1000 population) in the Magadan and Amur regions, the Yamalo-Nenets, Khanty-Mansiysk and Chukotka Autonomous Okrugs, and in the Republic of Khakassia.
These same regions had high attrition rates. The highest number of departures (more than 60 departures per 1000 population) was registered in Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. In the Magadan region it approached 50, in the Republic of Kalmykia, Taimyr and Koryak autonomous districts, Amur region - 32-34, in the Republic of Khakassia, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) - about 28.
The intensity of internal migration increased slightly in 2003. The number of migrants moving within Russia amounted to 2039.0 thousand people, which is 21.7 thousand people, or 1.1% more than in 2002.
Internal movements are more seasonal than external migration. Largest number registered movements occur in September-October, the smallest – in May.
2. Population analysis
2.1 Research methods used in population statistics
Over time, not only the composition of the population changes, but also the principles and methods of studying it. In the mid-90s. The social class grouping of the population has been radically changed. For many years, our country has adopted the following list of main community groups: workers, office workers and collective farmers. Currently, the grouping is based on the characteristic “occupational status” (employment, member of a cooperative, employer, etc.), which is more consistent with international practice and previous experience Russian statistics. For example, when developing the results of the 1926 population census, groups were distinguished: workers, employees, owners with hired workers, owners without hired workers, persons of liberal professions, unemployed, pensioners, etc.
Method in the most general sense means a way to achieve a goal, regulate activity. The method of concrete science is a set of techniques for theoretical and practical knowledge of reality. For an independent science, it is necessary not only to have a subject of research that is different from other sciences, but also to have its own methods for studying this subject. The set of research methods used in any science is methodology this science.
Since population statistics are sectoral statistics, the basis of its methodology is statistical methodology.
The most important method included in statistical methodology is obtaining information about the processes and phenomena being studied - statistical observation . It serves as the basis for collecting data both in current statistics and during censuses, monographic and sample studies of the population. Here is the full use of the provisions of theoretical statistics on establishing the object of the observation unit, introducing concepts about the date and moment of registration, the program, organizational issues of observation, systematization and publication of its results. The statistical methodology also includes the principle of independence in assigning each person enumerated to a specific group - the principle of self-determination.
The next stage of statistical study of socio-economic phenomena is the determination of their structure, i.e. identifying the parts and elements that make up the totality. It's about about the method of groupings and classifications, which in population statistics are called typological and structural.
To understand the structure of the population, it is necessary, first of all, to identify the characteristics of grouping and classification. Any sign that has been observed can also serve as a grouping sign. For example, based on the question of attitude towards the person recorded first on the census form, it is possible to determine the structure of the census population, where it seems likely to identify a significant number of groups. This characteristic is attributive, therefore, when developing census forms based on it, it is necessary to draw up in advance a list of classifications (groupings by attributive characteristics) needed for analysis. When compiling classifications with a large number of attribute records, assignment to certain groups is justified in advance. Thus, according to their occupation, the population is divided into several thousand species, which statistics reduce into certain classes, which is recorded in the so-called dictionary of occupations.
When studying the structure based on quantitative characteristics, it becomes possible to use such statistical generalizing indicators as mean, mode and median, distance measures or indicators of variation to characterize different parameters of the population. The structures of phenomena under consideration serve as the basis for studying the connections in them. In the theory of statistics, functional and statistical connections are distinguished. The study of the latter is impossible without dividing the population into groups and then comparing the value of the resulting characteristic.
Grouping by factor attribute and comparison with changes in the resultant attribute allows us to establish the direction of the connection: is it direct or inverse, as well as give an idea of its form broken regression . These groupings make it possible to construct a system of equations necessary to find regression equation parameters and determining the strength of the connection by calculating correlation coefficients. Groupings and classifications serve as the basis for the use of variance analysis of relationships between indicators of population movement and the factors that cause them.
Statistical methods are widely used in population studies dynamics research , graphic study of phenomena , index , selective And balance . We can say that population statistics uses the entire arsenal of statistical methods and examples to study its object. In addition, methods developed only for studying the population are also used. These are the methods real generation (cohort) And conventional generation . The first allows us to consider changes in the natural movement of peers (born in the same year) - longitudinal analysis; the second considers the natural movement of peers (living at the same time) - cross-sectional analysis.
It is interesting to use averages and indices when taking into account characteristics and comparing processes occurring in a population when the conditions for comparing data are not equal. Using different weighting when calculating generalized average values, a standardization method has been developed that makes it possible to eliminate the influence of different age characteristics of the population.
Probability theory as a mathematical science studies the properties of the objective world using abstractions , the essence of which is to completely abstract from qualitative certainty and highlight their quantitative side. Abstraction is the process of mental abstraction from many aspects of the properties of objects and at the same time the process of highlighting, isolating any aspects of interest to us, properties and relationships of the objects being studied. The use of abstract mathematical methods in population statistics makes it possible statistical modeling processes occurring in the population. The need for modeling arises when it is impossible to study the object itself. The largest number of models used in population statistics are developed to characterize its dynamics. Among them stand out exponential And logistics . Special meaning in the population forecast for future periods have models stationary And stable population, defining the type of population that has developed under given conditions.
If the construction of exponential and logistic population models uses data on the dynamics of the absolute population size over the past period, then stationary and stable population models are built on the basis of characteristics of the intensity of its development.
So, the statistical methodology for studying population has at its disposal a number of methods from the general theory of statistics, mathematical methods and special methods developed in population statistics itself. Population statistics, using the methods discussed above, develops a system of generalizing indicators, indicates the necessary information, methods of their calculation, the cognitive capabilities of these indicators, conditions of use, recording order and meaningful interpretation.
2.2 Population figures
Population– a set of persons living in a certain territory.
The population is divided into:
1) permanent (PN): persons permanently residing in a given territory, regardless of their location at the time of the census;
2) cash (NC): persons who are actually in the given territory at the time of the census, regardless of their place of permanent residence.
In addition, temporarily residing (RT) and temporarily absent (TA) are taken into account. Data on the current population is used to organize the work of transport, trade, water supply, etc. PN data is used in planning housing construction, schools, hospitals, etc. There is a dependence between the listed indicators.
PN = NN – VP + VO - NN = PN + VP – VO
Population calculation finally each year following the census:
S t+1 =S t +N t -M t +P t -B t , where:
S t+1 and S t – population in the corresponding years;
N t – number of births in year t;
M t – number of deaths in year t;
P t – number of arrivals;
B t – number of dropouts.
The absolute population indicator S is a momentary indicator (as of a certain date), i.e. January 1, June 1, etc.
Overall population change:
DS= S t+1 - S t .
To carry out economic calculations you need to know average population for a certain time.
· If there is data for the beginning and end of the period, then the calculation using the simple arithmetic average method:
· If there is data on the population for several equal dates, then calculation using the average chronological unweighted method for moment series:
· If the intervals between dates are unequal, then the calculation using the weighted arithmetic mean method:
To characterize population changes over time, the following are used:
1. population growth rate:
2. population growth rate:
Having determined the population size, the SES studies its composition using the grouping method, which is carried out according to:
* social composition,
* spheres of activity and sectors of the economy,
* professions,
* age,
* marital status, etc.
Changes in numbers due to births and deaths are called natural population movements. It is characterized by absolute and relative indicators.
Absolute indicators:
1. number of births – N;
2. number of deaths - M;
3. natural increase – N-M=DS natural. ;
4. number of marriages and divorces.
These indicators are interval, i.e. are determined for the period.
To judge the frequency of certain demographic events, relative indicators. They are expressed in ppm (0 / 00) and characterize the population level per 1000 people.
1. Total fertility rate. - number of births per year .
2. Overall mortality rate. 
- number of deaths per year per 1000 people of average annual population
.
3. Natural increase rate. 
or K eats. natural =K p -K cm.
4. Population vitality coefficient (Pokrovsky coefficient) K f(Pokr) =(N/M)*1000=K p /K cm.
The peculiarity of the general coefficients is that they are calculated per 1000 people of the entire population. In addition to the general ones, private coefficients are also used, cat. calculated per 1000 people. a certain age, gender, professional or other group.
5. Age-specific mortality rate.
, Where:
X – age, profession, etc.
M x – number of deaths at age x.
S x – average population size at age x.
6. Child mortality rate under 1 year of age.
, Where:
M 0 – number of children who died under the age of 1 year.
N t – number of births in a given year.
N t-1 – number of births in the previous year.
Special coefficients are also calculated. Most widespread received a special fertility rate (fertility rate):
, Where:
S f.15-49 – the average number of women of fertile age from 15 to 49 years.
There is a connection between the general and special fertility rates:
, Where:
d f.15-49 – share of women aged 15-49 years.
.
There is a relationship between general and special coefficients - any general coefficient can be represented as the arithmetic mean of partial coefficients, weighted by the number of population groups or their share in the total population.
, Where:
d x – share of group x in R.
Thus, the overall coefficient depends on the private and population structure.
There are also standardized coefficients, cat. When making comparisons, the influence of age structure is eliminated. Calculated using the weighted arithmetic average formula:
In this case, the options are partial coefficients, and the weights are indicators of the age structure, taken as the standard for comparison.
Mechanical change is a change in population due to the territorial movement of people, i.e. due to migrations, which are:
* external;
* internal;
* seasonal;
* pendulum.
Absolute indicator of population movement – V.
Number of arrivals – P.
Absolute mechanical gain – P mech. =P-V.
The intensity of mechanical movement is characterized by the following relative indicators :
7. arrival rate – 
;
8. retirement rate – 
;
9. mechanical gain coefficient – 
;
To characterize changes in numbers due to natural population movement and migration, the total growth rate is calculated:
1) 
;
2) 
;
3) K o.p. =K natural +To mechanical nature
Mortality tables and calculation of prospective population size
The mortality table is a system of indicators related to each other, depending on the mortality rate, assigned to different ages.
Table 1
X varies from 0 to 100 years (one-year groups).
l x is set per 10,000 people.
d x – number of deaths under x+1 years of age
q x= d x / l x – probability of death within a year
p x= l x +1 / l x – probability of surviving to the next day. age ( p x + q x = 1)
L x is the average value of those surviving from age x to x+1.
L x = (l x + l x +1)/2. (Except for 0th age).
T x – total number of person-years, cat. the totality of persons to live from age x years to the age limit
– average life expectancy.
– movement coefficient, calculated based on the table.
1. method of moving ages. S x +1 = S x * P x .
2.a method arithmetic progression. , Where:
S t + l – population size in l years.
S t– population size at the reference date.
D is the average annual absolute population growth.
2.b geometric progression method.
3. analysis of population dynamics over a number of years, determination of trends in changes, extrapolation of time series. y(t)=ab t – exponential function. Having determined the parameters a and b from the actual data, by substituting t (years), we obtain the possible values of the population in any t period.
Parameter a is the initial population size in the period where t=0.
Parameter b – the coefficient of total growth, shows how many times the average population increases annually.
2.3 Calculation and analysis of indicators of population dynamics in Russia for 2000-2005
Initial data on the population of Russia are given in Table 2:
table 2
In Table 3 we will calculate the indicators of the dynamics series.
Table 3
| Number of people, people (yi) |
Absolute growth, thousand people |
Rates of growth, % |
Growth rate, % |
Absolute values of growth (Ai), % |
||||
| Chain (Δts) |
Basic (Δb) |
Chain (TrC) |
Basic (TrB) |
Chain (TprTs) |
Basic (TPB) |
|||
Absolute increases:
Chain: Δts = yi – yi-1
For 2001: 146303.6-146890.1=- 586.5
For 2002: 145649.3-146303.6=- 654.3
For 2003: 144963.6-145649.3=- 685.7
For 2004: 144168.2 -144963.6=- 795.4
For 2005: 143474.2-144168.2=- 694;
Basic: Δb = yi – y1
For 2001: 146303.6 -146890.1=- 586.5
For 2002: 145649.3-146890.1=- 1240.8
For 2003: 144963.6-146890.1=- 1926.5
For 2004: 144168.2-146890.1=- 2721.9
For 2005: 143474.2-146890.1=- 3415.9
Rates of growth:
Chain: TrTs =
2002: (145649.3 /146303.6)*100%=99.55277%
2003: (144963.6/145649.3)*100%=99.52921%
2004: (144168.2 /144963.6)*100%=99.45131%
2005: (143474.2 /144168.2)*100%=99.51861%
Basic: TrB =
2001: (146303.6 /146890.1)*100%=99.60072%
2002: (145649.3 /146890.1)*100%=99.15528%
2003: (144963.6/146890.1)*100%=98.68847%
2004: (144168.2 /146890.1)*100%=98.14698%
2005: (143474.2 /146890.1)*100%=97.67451%
Growth rate:
Chain: TprTs – 100
2001: 99.60072 –100=-0.3993
2002: 99.55277– 100=-0.4472
2003: 99.52921– 100=-0.4708
2004: 99.45131 – 100=-0.5487
2005: 99.51861– 100=.-0.4814
Basic: TprB – 100
2001: 99.60072 – 100=-0.3993
2002: 99.15528– 100=-0.8447
2003: 98.68847 – 100=-1.3115
2004: 98.14698 – 100=-1.853
2005: 97.67451- 100=-2.3255.
Absolute growth values:
2001: 146890.1 / 100 = 1468.9
2002: 146303.6 / 100 = 1463.04
2003: 145649.3 / 100 = 1456.49
2004: 144963.6 / 100 =1449.64
2005: 144168.2/ 100 = 1441.68
Average absolute increase: = 
= - 683,2
Average growth rate: = = =0.9955.
7) Average growth rate: = 0.9955*100%-100 = -0.45.
One of the main tasks of studying time series is to identify patterns (trends) in the development of a particular process or phenomenon. Based on the data obtained from the analysis of a number of dynamics, the population of Russia continues to fall. The values of chain and basic indicators show us the characteristics of changes in the levels of the dynamic series. In particular, one can note a sharp decrease in the value of chain absolute growth in 2004, taking into account the constant negative growth throughout all 5 years. Indicators of chain growth rates show that the current population in the period from 2000-2005. was on the decline.
2.4 Population forecast for 2007-2009
Based on the data in Table 2, we will construct graphs:
Among the constructed graphs smallest value approximation errors are observed in the power-law model.
Let's consider a linear model to make a population forecast for 2006-2007. To do this, let's take a linear equation: y = -690.61*x + 149040. Let's denote the years:
Table 4
Now, instead of X, we substitute values into the linear equation to obtain a forecast for the desired period, as well as aligned y values. We will calculate the average approximation error using the linear graph data, comparing them with data on the population of Russia from the 2008 Demographic Directory, using the formula:
, i.e.
Table 5
| (| y - y" |) / y |
(| y - y" |)*100 / y |
||||
Substituting instead of “y” the values from the Demographic Directory, instead of “yx” - the aligned values of “y”, and instead of “n” - the number of years, we obtain an average approximation error equal to ≈ 5.70704 / 6 ≈ 0.9512. This value of the approximation error exceeds 12-15%, which indicates that the data are not adequate to the real ones, but the downward trend is accurately traced.
Thus, it is clear that Russia's population will continue to decline in 2007-2009. According to the 2008 Demographic Directory, in 2007 it was 142,221.0 thousand people, in 2008 – 142,008.8 thousand people. According to the forecast received, in 2009 it will be 142,133.9 thousand people.
3. Purpose of demographic forecasting
The history of demographic forecasts goes back hundreds of years. Many scientists - representatives of different sciences - tried to find some “objective laws of population growth”: biological, mathematical, economic, etc.
They tried to derive these “laws” from observations of the patterns of reproduction of animals and insects or by experimenting with mathematical models. All these attempts were unsuccessful. There is no automaticity in population growth (other than its inertia).
It is determined by the laws of people’s social behavior, which, in turn, is governed by the laws of social life.
Demographic forecast is based on knowledge of theory and general patterns population development, taking into account the main trends in population reproduction in the near historical perspective: further development urbanization, an increase in the educational and cultural level of the population, a decrease in mortality and an increase in life expectancy, the gradual extinction of the traditions of large families, changes in family functions, an increase in social and territorial mobility of the population, the preservation of a certain differentiation in the demographic development of different regions, due to economic, socio-cultural and ethnic factors and etc.
The accuracy of modern demographic forecasting is determined by the level of development of theoretical and applied demography, the general level of scientific forecasting of all aspects of the socio-economic life of society, as well as new analytical and forecasting capabilities provided by computer methods. Since the early 1990s, standard application software packages have been widely used in demographic forecasting. They significantly save the time required to carry out forecast calculations, make it possible to calculate various scenarios of possible population dynamics, and also make calculations with incomplete or defective data.
The reliability of a demographic forecast depends on:
I) accuracy of the source information,
2) on the validity of hypotheses about changes in demographic processes under the influence of the entire complex of socio-economic conditions,
3) on the duration of the period for which the forecast is made. There are short-term (up to 5 years), medium-term (up to 30 years) and long-term (30-60 years) forecasts.
A demographic forecast helps to determine both the quantity and structure (age and gender) of future labor resources, and to assess the possible needs of various socio-demographic groups of the population for various goods and services. It is necessary for a long-term assessment of the development and placement of social facilities, and is widely used in marketing.
The development of government social security measures is based on demographic forecasting data. In the context of a continuing increase in the number and proportion of the elderly population great importance acquires forecasting the number of pensioners, their family status, and health. There is an increasing need to predict indicators characterizing the family structure of the population.
A forecast of the number and composition of families, as well as their income and needs, is necessary to assess the prospects for housing construction.
The role of demographic forecasting in developing a strategy for the development of society is constantly increasing, which is due to the increasingly social orientation of the economy. In turn, forecasts and programs for the development of industrial and agricultural production of social infrastructure, territorial redistribution of the population, income dynamics, living standards and employment of the population are taken into account when choosing hypotheses of demographic development and choosing the option for long-term population calculation.
Demographic forecasts made under the auspices of the UN are used to develop an international development strategy, recommendations in the field of population policy, and to solve global and regional economic, political, and environmental problems. UN estimates and projections are revised every two years to take into account new data on population movements provided by national statistical offices.
Currently, there are many forecasts for the demographic development of Russia. They are of an author's nature and differ from each other in the formulation of tasks, hypotheses, results and underlying methodological guidelines. Knowledge of the intent of the forecast and the methodological approach used by a particular author can help in developing an individual assessment of the user in terms of confidence in the forecast results and the possibilities of their use in management practice.
Professor I.V., who studied this issue. Bestuzhev-Lada writes the following. In the forms of concretization of the abstract concept of “foresight”, it is advisable to distinguish between two concrete concepts: “prediction” and “forecasting”. Both contain a third specific concept - “prediction” (of the state of a phenomenon or process in the future). But in the first case, the prediction is unconditional; it is characterized by the verbs “will” or “will become”. And in the second it is purely conditional, instrumental: “it may be or may become under certain conditions,” on which the researcher’s attention is focused.
The assessment of the first type of forecasts is made “according to the degree of justification,” which, in turn, is located on a scale: came true - did not come true. Let us note that the managerial significance of forecasting - predicting (what will happen tomorrow) is minimal, since it leaves the decision-making process within the framework of a subjective attitude towards the future. This kind of forecast can be used as a warning forecast (for example, with narrowed population reproduction in France, 50s of the 20th century), to justify territorial expansion and geopolitics (Germany, 30s, 20th century), to promote family planning programs (developing countries, 60-80s, 20th century).
An alternative approach to the future is expanded into the concept of “technological forecasting”: not “what will happen”, but “what can happen given the observed trends and what needs to be done to make the most desirable possible happen.” In essence, such an approach should be called problem-targeted, because in practice, extrapolation into the future of observed trends always shows a picture of emerging problems, and optimization of these trends always comes down to identifying the most effective solution to them. A technological forecast, as an advance “weighing” of the consequences of a planned decision, provides unspeakably more for increasing management efficiency (for example, it greatly increases the objectivity of the planned decisions) than the best guesses. In fact, it is a means of analyzing patterns of population dynamics under the influence of certain changes in fertility and mortality.
Experience foreign countries clearly indicates: depopulation of the population can be overcome. According to preliminary estimates, the loss may decrease by several ppm in the foreseeable future. Demographic processes are inherently very inert, and it is impossible to turn the depopulation flywheel overnight.
There are (in the West) standard mortality tables by cause of death. Other approaches are probably possible. It is important to remember that the accuracy of the forecast is determined almost exclusively by the quality of the hypothesis about trends in demographic development, and not by the complexity of mathematical formulas.
Bibliography
1. Federal Law of February 19, 1993 “On Refugees”.
2. Federal Law of February 19, 1993 “On Forced Migrants”;
3. Borisov V.A. Demography, M., 1999;
4. Demographic Yearbook of Russia, 2002;
5. Demographic Yearbook of Russia, 2003;
6. Erokhina O.V.: “Migration: free and forced, socio-economic aspects, the specifics of the migration problem for Russia, the main features of modern labor migration and “brain drain.” //Internet conference on the portal http://www.auditorium.ru;
7. Kildishev et al. Population statistics with basic demography, M.: “Finance and Statistics”, 1990;
8. Kuzmin A.I. Course of lectures "Fundamentals of Demography". Lecture 12 “Population Migration” // http://humanities.edu.ru;
9. Methodological provisions on statistics//Goskomstat of Russia. – M.: Issue 4. – 2003
10. “Population of Russia”//Annual demographic report. M., 1999
11. Salin V.N., Churilova E.Yu. Course on the theory of statistics, Moscow: Finance and Statistics, 2006.
12. Tatarkova N.V. Course of lectures “Economic demography”;
13. Federal State Statistics Service “Number and migration of the population of the Russian Federation in 2002.”
14. http://antropotok.archipelag.ru – Center for Strategic Research of the Volga Federal District. Group "Russian Archipelago";
15. http://demoscope.ru – Magazine "Demoscope-Weekly", electronic version;
16. http://www.gks.ru;
17. http://www.perepis2002.ru – All-Russian Population Census 2002;
18. http://www.capital.ru
Application
Figure 1. Factors influencing the decision to migrate
Figure 2. Components of population growth (decrease) in Russia, thousand people
|
| List of regions of the Russian Federation |
|
| Central federal district |
|
| 1. Belgorod region |
2. Bryansk region |
| 3. Vladimir region |
4. Voronezh region |
| 6. Kaluga region |
|
| 7. Kostroma region |
8. Kursk region |
| 9. Lipetsk region |
10. Moscow region |
| 11. Oryol Region |
12. Ryazan region |
| 13. Smolensk region |
14. Tambov region |
| 15. Tver region |
16. Tula region |
| 17. Yaroslavl region |
18. Moscow |
| Northwestern Federal District |
|
| 19. Republic of Karelia |
20. Komi Republic |
| 21. Arkhangelsk region |
22. Nenets auto. district |
| 23. Vologda Region |
24. Kaliningrad region |
| 25. Leningrad region |
26. Murmansk region |
| 27. Novgorod region |
28. Pskov region |
| 29. St. Petersburg |
|
| Southern Federal District |
|
| 30. Republic of Adygea |
|
| 31. Republic of Dagestan |
32. Republic of Ingushetia |
| 33. Kabardino-Balkarian Republic |
34. Republic of Kalmykia |
| 35. Karachay-Cherkess Republic |
36. Republic of North Ossetia-Alania |
| 37. Chechen Republic* |
38. Krasnodar region |
| 39. Stavropol region |
40. Astrakhan region |
| 41. Volgograd region |
42. Rostov region |
| Volga Federal District |
|
| 43. Republic of Bashkortostan |
44. Republic of Mari El |
| 45. Republic of Mordovia |
46. Republic of Tatarstan |
| 47. Udmurt republic |
48. Chuvash Republic |
| 49. Kirov region |
50. Nizhny Novgorod region |
| 51. Orenburg region |
52. Penza region |
| 53. Perm region |
54. Komi-Permyak auto. district |
| 55. Samara region |
56. Saratov region |
| 57. Ulyanovsk region |
|
| Ural federal district |
|
| 58. Kurgan region |
|
| 60. Tyumen region |
|
| 61. Khanty-Mansiysk avt. district |
62. Yamalo-Nenets auto. district |
| 63. Chelyabinsk region |
|
| Siberian Federal District |
|
| 64. Altai Republic |
|
| 65. Republic of Buryatia |
66. Republic of Tyva |
| 67. Republic of Khakassia |
68. Altai region |
| 70. Taimyr (Dolgano-Nenets) auto. district |
|
| 71. Evenki auto. district |
72. Irkutsk region |
| 73. Ust-Ordynsky Buryat auto. district |
74. Kemerovo region |
| 76. Omsk region |
|
| 77. Tomsk region |
78. Chita region |
| 79. Aginsky Buryat auto. district |
|
| Far Eastern Federal District |
|
| 80. Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
|
| 81. Primorsky Krai |
82. Khabarovsk region |
| 83. Amur region |
84. Kamchatka region |
| 85. Koryak auto. district |
86. Magadan region |
| 87. Sakhalin region |
88. Jewish auto. region |
| 89. Chukotka auto. district |
|
*Data for the Chechen Republic, as a rule, are not available, or were determined by expert assessment
Rice. 4. Components of changes in the population of the regions-subjects of the Russian Federation for 2003 (based on the results for January-November in annual terms), per 1000 people of the population
Rice. 5. Migration growth of the population of Russia, 1980-2003, thousand people and per 10 thousand people of the population
Rice. 6. Main flows of external migration in Russia by month, 1998-2003
Rice. 7. Number of migrants moving within Russia, 1979-2003, thousand people registered upon arrival
Rice. 8. Number of migrants moving within Russia, by month, 1998-2003
Rice. 9. Dynamics of the number of Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Georgians, Tajiks and Kazakhs according to the censuses of 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989 and 2002 (1989 = 100%)
Rice. 10. Population dynamics individual peoples North Caucasus according to the censuses of 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989 and 2002 (1989 = 100%)
Rice. 11. Dynamics of the number of individual peoples of the Volga region according to the censuses of 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989 and 2002 (1989 = 100%)
Rice. 12. Population
Rice. 13. Urban and rural population.
Rice. 14. National composition.
Rice. 15. Women per 1000 Men
Rice. 16. Marital status of the population.
Rice. 17. Main migration flows.
Table 1.
Table 2. Indicators of natural population growth.
Table 3. Number of internally displaced persons and refugees (people).
Appendix, p. 37, fig. 2
Appendix, page 48, table 2.
Appendix, p. 38, fig. 3
Appendix, page 38
Appendix, page 40, fig. 4
Appendix, p.41, fig. 6
Appendix, page 41, fig. 7
Appendix, page 42, fig. 8
Migration- movement of people between separate territories associated with a permanent, temporary or seasonal change of place of residence.
Reasons for migrations:
- economic;
- political;
- national;
- religious.
Population migration- the leading cause of the most important changes that have occurred in the settlement of people on Earth over the past centuries.
The movement of population across a territory is called mechanical movement of the population or population migration. At the same time, a distinction is made between internal and external (outside the country) migration.
Internal migration
Internal migrations include movement of population from village to city, which in many countries is the source of urban growth (it is often called the “great migration of peoples of the 20th century.”). Territorial redistribution of the population also occurs between large and small cities. Both of these species are very widely represented, particularly in Russia.
Although internal migration is typical for all states, in different countries they are at different stages of development. IN developing countries Streams of rural residents who do not have land and work rush to cities, and in the most developed countries “reverse” migrations of the population predominate (from cities to the suburbs, and partly to the countryside).
External migration
Types of external migration:- emigration - the departure of citizens from their country to another for permanent residence or a more or less long term
- immigration is the entry of citizens into another country for permanent residence or a more or less long term.
External migrations, which arose in ancient times, received their greatest development in the era of capitalism. In countries where external migrations of the population become widespread, they can have a significant impact on their numbers, for example in the USA, Canada, Australia, Israel. Currently, inland migration flows have increased. At the same time, it became especially widespread. This especially affected Western Europe, which from a center of emigration (existing for several centuries) has turned into a center of attraction from 7 countries of the Mediterranean and Asia. Important centers of labor immigration are the United States and oil-producing countries in the Middle East.
In the second half of the 20th century. A new form of external migration has emerged, called “brain drain”. It first appeared after the Second World War, when several thousand scientists were exported from Germany to the United States. These days, along with the brain drain from Europe, there is an exodus from developing countries.
Study of population migration
Analysis of migration data shows where, from where and in what quantities population movements in the country occur.
Population migration is studied using absolute and relative indicators.
Absolute migration rates
1. Number of arrivals to this locality (P)
2. Number of dropouts from this locality (B)
3. Mechanical gain population (MP = P - V)
Relative migration rates
Relative indicators include the arrival rate, departure rate and mechanical increase rate.
The coefficients given below are calculated on a production basis, that is, per 1000 population.
Arrival rate
Shows how many people arrive in a given region on average per 1000 population during a calendar year:
Attrition rate
Shows how many people left a given region on average per 1000 population per year:
Mechanical gain coefficient
Characterizes the amount of mechanical growth occurring on average per 1000 people of the region’s population per year, and is calculated in two ways:
In 2000, 350,873 people arrived in Russia, and 160,763 people left the Russian Federation during the same year.
Changes in the size and composition of the population occur under the influence of natural and mechanical movement, to characterize which absolute and relative indicators are calculated.
Absolute indicators reflect general scales (dimensions) the demographic process being studied. These include:
· number of births (N);
· number of deaths (M);
· natural population growth (decrease) (A), defined as the difference between the number of births and deaths (N - M);
· number of marriages (B);
· number of divorces (P);
· number of arrivals or arrivals (P);
· number of exits or departures (B);
· migration increase (decrease) of the population (C) or balance of migration or net migration, defined as the difference between the number of arrivals and departures (P - V));
· migration turnover (O) or gross migration or gross migration, defined as the sum of the number of arrivals and departures (P + B)).
Relative indicators (demographic ratios) characterize intensity the demographic process being studied and are measured by the number of demographic events (births, deaths, etc.) per 1000 people, i.e. in ppm (‰). Among these indicators, four types are distinguished: general, private (special), group and standardized coefficients. A special type of relative demographic indicators are total coefficients, which show how many demographic events (for example, children, marriages, territorial movements, etc.) occur on average per member of the cohort being studied over the entire period of its existence.
General demographic rates are calculated by the ratio of the number of demographic events to total population. These include: general rates of fertility, mortality, natural increase (decrease), departure, arrival, relative balance of migration, migration turnover coefficient.
The sum of the coefficients of natural (K eat) and migration growth (loss) (K mig) gives the coefficient of total population growth (loss) (K total), which shows how the population has changed per 1000 people:
where D generally– absolute increase (decrease) of population;
D eating– natural increase (decrease) of population;
D moment– migration increase (decrease) of the population;
– average annual population.
Special demographic coefficients characterize the number of demographic events per 1000 thousand people contingent directly involved in the process being studied. For example, a special birth rate (fertility rate) is determined by the number of births per 1000 thousand women of reproductive (fertile) age: from 15 to 49 years.
Group (private) demographic coefficients characterize the intensity of demographic processes in specific population groups. For example, mortality rates are determined for various socio-demographic groups of the population (by gender, age, urban and rural population) to identify groups with the highest mortality and develop differentiated measures to reduce it. Fertility rates are also calculated for different groups of women of reproductive age in order to study differences in the level of fertility of women depending on their age, type of settlement (urban or rural population), marital status, nationality and other characteristics.
Standardized odds necessary for ensuring comparability actual demographic indicators calculated for territories with different age and gender structures. These differences lead to the fact that the level of the demographic coefficient is influenced not only by the intensity of the demographic process itself, but also by the characteristics gender and age structure population. For example, a high (compared to other territories) proportion of the elderly population in the region, with other equal conditions contributes to an increase in the overall mortality rate. To eliminate the influence of structural differences and identify the intensity of the studied demographic process “in pure form", the compared actual coefficients are recalculated to the same (standard) population structure, resulting in standardized demographic coefficients that are used for inter-territorial comparisons. As a standard population structure, you can use the actual structure of one of the regions or population groups being compared, the optimal structure, etc.
The above indicators are specified in relation to a specific demographic process and supplemented by others statistical characteristics for a more complete and in-depth study.
Natural population movement(natural population reproduction)- population change in the so-called “natural way”. The processes of natural population movement include not only fertility and mortality processes, which directly (directly) change the population size, but also marriage and divorce processes, which indirectly (as factors of fertility and mortality) also affect the quantitative and structural parameters of the population.
Fertility statistics includes a wide system of indicators that give its comprehensive characteristics.
1. Total number of live births (live births) during the period (N)- used to estimate the overall scale of fertility.
2. Distribution of births by gender, mother’s age, mother’s birth order, etc.;
3. Total fertility rate (K r) is defined as the ratio of the number of live births (N) to the average annual population () and shows the number of births per thousand inhabitants.
,
where is the average annual population;
N– number of live births per year.
But this coefficient, despite its widespread use in the analysis of demographic processes, gives an inaccurate assessment of the intensity of the fertility process, because is determined in relation to the entire population and depends not only on the birth rate, but also on the age and sex structure of the population.
4. Special Fertility Rate(fertility rate, fecundity or reproductive rate) gives a more accurate assessment of the intensity of fertility, because is calculated as the ratio of the number of births to the average annual number of women aged 15 to 49 years and shows the number of births for every thousand women of fertile age.
or 
Where: K pl = special fertility rate for women of fertile age;
– average annual number of women of fertile age;
– the proportion of women of fertile age in the total population.
The quantitative relationship between general and special fertility rates can be expressed as follows:
K r = K pl *
This means that the total fertility rate depends on both the reproductive rate of women and their share in the total population.
5. For a more detailed study of fertility, calculate group (private) fertility rates for specific groups of women of fertile age - for women of various ages(age-specific rates), for married and unmarried women (marital and extramarital reproductive rates), by groups of women with different education, different social status, different nationalities, etc. Group fertility rates are calculated as the ratio of the number of births to women in a given group to the average annual number of women in that group
6. Based on the summation of age-specific fertility rates, it is determined total fertility rate (TFR), which is one of the characteristics of the natural reproduction regime of the population. It shows how many children, on average, each woman would give birth to during her fertile period if the current birth rate were maintained at each age.
It is believed that to ensure even simple population reproduction, this indicator should be at the level of 2.1 – 2.2.
7. Gross coefficient (gross coefficient) of reproduction population shows the average number of girls that each woman who lived to the end of her fertile period would give birth to, if the current birth rate remained at each age. It is determined by multiplying the total fertility rate ( TFR) the share of girls among births ( d maidens) – 0,49.
,
Where : K pl– fertility rate of women aged 15 to 49 years in the absence of their mortality;
d maidens– proportion of girls born alive.
The gross population reproduction rate is called an indicator of potential generation replacement.
8. Net coefficient (net coefficient) of reproduction population is calculated taking into account both the birth rate and death rate of women of fertile age. It shows the average number of girls born to a woman in her lifetime who live to the age she was when she gave birth to her daughter. The net population reproduction rate is an indicator of the real replacement of generations and occupies a central place in the system of indicators of the reproduction regime.
,
Where d dev/r– the proportion of girls born alive and surviving to the age of the mother at which she gave birth.
9. Additional characteristics of the fertility process are indicators middle-aged mothers who gave birth to a child in the period under study, which are determined on the basis of a weighted arithmetic mean in two versions: the average age of mothers at the birth of their first child and the average age of mothers at the birth of the next child.
Unfortunately, at present there are trends of increase and convergence of these indicators, which adversely affects the regime of natural reproduction of the population.
It should be noted that all of the above fertility rates are determined for a specific period of time (usually a year) and are based on current accounting data. The results of the population census make it possible to determine an indicator that is based on accumulated data on fertility - the average number of children born per 1000 women. Based on materials from special sample surveys, the reproductive attitudes of the population and their motivation are studied.
Mortality statistics also uses a system of absolute, relative and average values, which allows us to give a comprehensive description of this process.
1. Total number of deaths for the period (M)- used to estimate the overall mortality rate.
2. Statistical characteristics composition deceased by gender, age, cause of death and other characteristics.
3. Overall mortality rate (K cm) is defined as the ratio of the number (M) to the average annual population () and shows the number of deaths per thousand inhabitants.
4. Since the value of the overall mortality rate depends not only on the intensity of the mortality process in individual population groups, but also on their share in the total population (population structure), then for a more complete and objective characterization of mortality, we calculate group (private) mortality rates in the context of specific population groups. A comparative analysis of these coefficients allows us to identify population groups with a high probability of death and develop measures to reduce it in these groups.
5. A special place in the system of mortality indicators is occupied by infant mortality rate, characterizing the mortality rate of children under one year of age. The importance of this indicator lies in the fact that it is one of the main social indicators used to assess the standard of living of the population. Both the causes of infant mortality and the methodology for calculating the coefficient reflecting its level are specific.
The infant mortality rate can be calculated using various methods. In its most simplified form, this indicator is defined
as the ratio of the number of deaths under the age of one year ( M 0) to the total number of live births (N). But this scheme for calculating the infant mortality rate does not take into account the fact that among those who died in the current year there may also be children born in the previous year. Based on this, a refined calculation formula is proposed, according to which the number of births is taken into account as in the previous year (N 0), same as this year (N 1) in a certain proportion (1: 3 or 1: 4)
But the most accurate assessment of the infant mortality rate is provided by the scheme for calculating the coefficient, taking into account the distribution of deaths under one year of age into two groups: those born in the current year and in the previous year.
Where M 1– the number of deaths under the age of one year from the number of births in the reporting year;
N 1– number of births in the reporting year;
M 0– the number of deaths before the age of one year from the number of births in the previous year;
N 0– number of births in the previous year.
This methodology is used by state statistics agencies to estimate the mortality rate of children under one year of age.
6. A special group consists of stillbirth rates, which are calculated as the ratio of the number of stillbirths to the number of live births or the total number of live and stillbirths.
7. Average life expectancy of the population, which is measured in years and is the most general characteristic of the current mortality rate at all ages. This indicator is calculated in two ways:
Life expectancy at birth – for those born in the current year;
The expected life expectancy of persons who have reached a certain age.
When studying vital processes, indicators fertility and mortality are considered in comparison together. Comparing them allows us to calculate:
1. absolute indicator of natural increase or decrease:
A = N – M;
2. coefficient of natural increase or loss ( TO EST.PR) per thousand inhabitants:
3. Professor Pokrovsky’s vitality coefficient, determined by the ratio of fertility and mortality; it shows how many people are born for every 100 people who die.
or 
Processes of marriage and divorce are studied by statistics based on the construction and analysis of a system of absolute and relative indicators in the following areas:
1. the number of marriages (B) and the number of divorces (P);
2. statistical assessment of the composition of marriages and divorces (for example, the proportion of divorces with a certain duration of marriage; the distribution of married men and women by age, etc.);
3. general marriage and divorce rates, which are determined similarly to the general birth and death rates and show the number of marriages (divorces) per 1000 inhabitants;
And 
,
Where: B– number of marriages;
P - number of registered divorces
4. special marriage rates are calculated in relation to the population that has reached marriageable age and is not married;
5. Special divorce rates are calculated in relation to the number of married couples.
Additional statistical characteristics of the marriage process are indicators of the average age of married men and women. Divorce rates can be calculated for couples with different lengths of marriage, for couples with and without children, etc.
In addition, population statistics determine indicators based on the ratio of divorces to marriages - the number of divorces per 1000 marriages.
The population size, both in the country as a whole and in its individual regions, changes not only as a result of its natural movement, but also as a result of mechanical movement or migration.
Mechanical movement of population (migration) - is a change in population due to territorial movement individuals. Therefore, movements of people within a populated area are not considered migration.
In modern conditions, migration is the most important factor, which determines the possibilities for economic development of individual territories. In addition, migration flows change not only the size, but also the age and sex composition of the population of these territories and, thereby, affect the birth and death rates.
The specificity of migration accounting is that the same person can change his place of residence several times during the year and, accordingly, will be counted several times. Therefore, the units of accounting in migration statistics are, in fact, not people (migrants), but events (movements).
Mechanical movement statistics include indicators calculated both for all migration and in the context of individual types of migration and certain groups of migrants. There are movements of population within a country, which are called internal migration, and the movement of population from one country to another, called external migration. In turn, external migration is taken into account separately - in relation to non-CIS countries (countries outside the CIS) and neighboring countries (CIS countries). Within the framework of internal migration, interregional and intraregional (intraregional) migration are distinguished. Traditionally, in our country, population movements between urban and rural areas are taken into account.
The information source for data on internal migration are absentee ballots filled out when registering the population “at the place of residence” (registration of permanent migration) and at the “place of stay” (registration of temporary migration). It contains various information about migrants: date and place of birth; citizenship; new and last place of residence; the main circumstance that caused the need for resettlement; lesson on last place residence; marital status; type of social security at the last place of residence, etc. Accounting for external migration is carried out on the basis of data from the passport and visa service.
There are also pendulum migration - movement of population from one place to another on a short-term basis, i.e. without changing your permanent place of residence (usually within a day, day or week to work or study). To determine the volumes and directions of commuting migration, as a rule, one-time sample surveys (for example, in transport) and indirect estimates are used.
Absolute indicators of population migration are number of arrivals and number of departures persons The number of arrivals and departures is distributed by gender, age and other socio-demographic characteristics of migrants, as well as reasons for migration.
The difference between the population that arrived and left a given territory characterizes mechanical increase or decrease in population. This indicator is also called the migration balance. It reflects the effectiveness of migration. The sum of arrivals and departures forms the total migration turnover, which shows how many people participated in migration processes. This indicator is an indicator of the overall scale of mechanical movement.
Thus, absolute migration indicators characterize where and from where, in what quantity the population moves in the country, which is necessary to know when solving current issues of regional socio-economic development and justifying the strategic prospects of specific territories. Special programs are being developed and implemented at the national level migration policy in order to regulate external and internal migration flows.
Data on the balance of population migration for each region, together with data on natural population growth (loss), serve as the basis for calculating the population size for any date between censuses.
But absolute indicators of mechanical movement cannot be used for interregional comparisons and assessment of the intensity of migration processes. For these purposes it is calculated general coefficients of arrival (K in), departure (K out),
And 
,
Where: P- number of arrivals or arrivals;
IN- number of exits or departures.
Based on data on the arrival and departure of the population, coefficients of migration growth (decrease) and intensity of migration turnover the ratio of the corresponding absolute indicator of mechanical movement to the average annual population.
or 
or K instant rev = K incoming + K out
All these coefficients, as well as the coefficients of natural movement, are usually measured per 1000 inhabitants, sometimes (with low migration intensity) - per 10,000 inhabitants.
In addition to these coefficients in the analysis of the effectiveness of migration movement important role plays relative migration efficiency coefficient, which is determined by the ratio of the balance of migration and migration turnover. Unlike most demographic rates, it is measured as a percentage. It shows what proportion of migrants remain in a given territory in the event of a positive migration balance and vice versa.
For a more in-depth analysis of migration flows both within the country and outside its borders, so-called “chess” or balance tables are being developed, which contain data on population movements in the context of regions of arrival and departure.
Based on population census data, the indicator is also determined average duration residence migrants in the territory of arrival. For a more detailed analysis of migration, migration plans of the population (expected migration) and their motivation are studied.
It is known that the population of any territory changes rapidly in one direction or another under the influence of births, deaths, arrivals and departures, and statistics studies these changes using indicators.
1. Vitality coefficient - the number of births over a certain period in a given territory divided by the number of deaths over the same period in the same territory, i.e. this is the ratio of the number of births and deaths. If, for example, this coefficient is 3, it means that 3 times more people were born than died. And if 0.3, then the mortality rate exceeds the birth rate by 30%.
2. Natural population growth rate (in ppm)
where P is the number of births, Y is the number of deaths, and is the average annual population.
If the coefficient has a minus sign, this means that a process of depopulation is underway in this territory, i.e., 1000 more people die than are born per 1000 people.
3. The mechanical growth rate is also calculated in ppm
where P - arrived in this territory; B -- left the given territory; -- average annual population.
4. Overall growth rate (calculated in ppm):
All considered coefficients characterize the process of population reproduction, which includes the renewal of the population both under the influence of natural and mechanical movement.
Methods for calculating the future population size
The prospective population size, depending on the objectives of the study, can be determined in different ways.
If it is enough to know only the total population in n years, use the formula
where is the population in n years; S 0 -- population at the reference date; To the general -- coefficient of general population growth; n -- prospective time period.
If there is a need for a more detailed description of the population, say, taking into account gender, age, with the distribution of this data by year within the period under consideration, etc., the age shift method is used.
The age shifting method involves moving the age structure of the population of the initial period forward a number of years, taking into account the reduction in age groups that will be caused by the extinction process.
The data for the calculations are: the initial population size by age groups from 0 to 100 years (if the calculation is carried out in aggregate, an interval series of ages is used, the interval can be 5 or 10 years), age-specific survival rates, age-specific mortality rates.
If survival rates are used, then the calculation of the prospective size of each age group is carried out in this way
where S x+1 -- population size for age x + 1 years;
S x -- population size at age x years;
K = (1 -- K mortality) - survival rate for age group x years.
If the mortality rate is used, the formula is suitable for calculation
i.e., from the population of age x years, that population that does not survive to age (x + 1) years is excluded.
In the method under consideration, the concepts of sample step and calculation threshold are introduced. The time interval over which the population of individual age groups moves is called a step, and the age structure at the initial point in time is called the calculation threshold.
