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Financial management: lecture notes

Risk management processes. Risk management includes four main processes: identification, analysis, planning and risk control.

Risk identification is the first stage of the risk management process. This step identifies and describes the risks that may arise during the implementation of the project, as well as the relationship between the risks.

The identified risks are classified into groups (financial, technological, political, professional, force majeure, etc.). At the analysis stage, a risk assessment is made.

It calculates the probabilities of risks and the damage they can cause, and defines the risk boundaries.

After that, the risks are grouped according to the degree of importance and the most important of them are highlighted, which will be carefully monitored throughout the entire duration of the project. After identifying and analyzing risks at the planning stage, measures are developed to prevent risks and eliminate their consequences, if they do occur. Relevant documents include a description of actions to respond to the occurrence of each of possible problems and a list of persons responsible for the implementation of appropriate actions to neutralize them. The objective of the control stage is to monitor identified risks and implement planned preventive measures.

Based on the data of such monitoring, a response to a problem situation is initiated, if such is detected. Properly organized control over the project implementation provides the company's management with high-quality and timely information for making decisions to prevent risks.

In the course of the project, new risks may be identified or the degree of their influence on the project may change. That is why risk management is a closed cycle, in which control is again followed by the identification stage and so on until the end of the project. 2.2.2. Risk Management Techniques Risk control is an essential part of successful trading. Effective management risk requires not only careful monitoring of the amount of risk, but also a strategy to minimize losses.

Well-known management methods are used to deal with risks. To reduce production risks (for example, failure to comply planned targets according to the volume and quality of products), appropriate organizational and technological measures are developed, including a system of current and operational scheduling, a quality management system and other similar measures aimed at creating a system at the enterprise that excludes non-fulfillment of planned targets on time and proper product quality.

To reduce other risks, adequate measures are being developed, the main criterion of which is their effectiveness, i.e. the ratio of the result (decrease in losses or increase in profit) to the costs of their implementation. The main problem of risk management in foreign economic activity enterprise consists in managing risks, the occurrence of which does not depend on the efforts of enterprises, and which are external. The following groups of methods can be distinguished, aimed at reducing possible losses caused by these risks: insurance, hedging as a method of using exchange-traded futures contracts and options.

Application of various forms and methods of settlement and credit relations, minimizing the risk of non-payment for delivered goods, or non-receipt of goods against payment. For example, a confirmed documentary letter of credit, various bank guarantees, avalanches, pledges, etc. Among the methods of risk management in foreign economic activity, a significant place is given to insurance.

By its nature, insurance is a form of preliminary reservation of resources intended to compensate for damage from the expected manifestation of various risks. The party taking financial risks in in this case, stands Insurance Company... The purpose of insuring an economic entity is to protect against financial consequences (property damage) due to the occurrence of unfavorable events. Along with insurance, other risk management methods are also used.

Various hedging methods are widely used to manage risks associated with falling prices for exchange commodities, stock values, as well as unfavorable fall in exchange rates. The advantage of hedging is the possibility of prompt decision-making, a relatively low cost. The disadvantages include a relatively narrow range of action (only the price parameters of transactions for goods, stock values and currency), the complexity of the techniques used, which require a high level of qualifications of specialists.

This allows this method to be used, as a rule, on large enterprises and at large volumes foreign economic operations (practically not used at Russian enterprises). A separate area of risk management in foreign economic activity is associated with settlement and credit relations and involves the use of a fairly wide variety of forms and methods. The main ones include: - the use of an irrevocable confirmed documentary credit when making payments for the delivery of goods; - the use of bank guarantees (for example, the avalization of bills of exchange - drafts, etc.). The listed methods are not able to provide absolute protection against possible risks, although they can significantly reduce them.

To a large extent, risks can be prevented through effective internal management (for example, diversification of activities, etc.). The greatest effect can be achieved through a combination, combination of various methods of risk management: insurance, hedging, application modern methods management, forms and methods of calculation in foreign economic transactions.

End of work -

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The solution is at the heart of any management. Classification of risk management decisions allows you to highlight their characteristic features, provide for the possibility of reducing risks when making decisions.

According to the area of acceptance, geopolitical, foreign policy, domestic political, economic, financial, technological, design, and operational risk decisions can be distinguished. These types of decisions are in a systemic relationship and can influence each other. In place in the risk management process, solutions can be identified:

- risk-setting on the choice of risk management objectives. These are the solutions that can be studied and formalized to the least extent. Formal methods for synthesizing goals have not been developed;

- risk marketing the choice of methods (prevent, reduce, insure, absorb) or tools (constructive, technological, financial, etc.) for risk management.

These solutions can be formalized, in particular, the use of functional-logical methods;

- risk management maintaining a balance in the triangle "people - resources - goals" in the process of achieving the set risk goals with the risk management tools selected at the stage of risk marketing.

Reducing the risk is possible:

1) at the stage of planning an operation or designing samples - by introducing additional elements and measures;

2) at the decision-making stage - using the appropriate criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of the decision, for example, the Wald criteria ("count on the worst") or Sedwidge ("count on the best") or the criterion in which the risk indicator is limited in magnitude (while the alternatives are not satisfying the risk limitation are not considered);

3) at the stage of the operation and operation of technical systems - through strict adherence and control of operation modes.

Within each of the directions, the measures taken will have a different ratio of efficiency (reducing the likelihood of unacceptable damage) to the cost of their provision. These measures are associated with costs and require an increase in the complexity of systems, therefore, in certain conditions, it may be economically more expedient to spend money not on prevention or risk reduction, but on compensation for possible damage. In the latter case, an insurance mechanism is used.

Thus, if in the process of preparing a decision it will be found that risk reduction measures are ineffective and expensive at the same time, then it may be economically more expedient to insure your actions. In this case, the task is not to prevent, but to compensate for damage.

In accordance with the approaches in management, it is possible to distinguish the risk solutions of traditional, systemic, situational, social and ethical management.

In terms of predicted efficiency in risk management, the following can be distinguished: ordinary, synergistic and asynergic options for solutions and systems.

Ordinary options for risk solutions- these are solutions for which the efficiency of resource expenditure per unit of the obtained effect in risk management complies with the norms and standards adopted for the industry in question, type of activity.

Synergistic options for risk solutions- these are options for decisions, when making which the efficiency of resource spending in risk management increases sharply, that is, the effect is clearly expressed disproportionately increasing.

Synergistic solutions appear when developing new safe technologies (in agriculture, these are new types of fertilizers and food additives), finding and eliminating or protecting the most vulnerable points, designing original devices, etc.

Since the synergistic effect in risk management is in any case ultimately expressed in monetary form, then the synergistic effect of technologies, labor organization, etc. found in the financial sector.

Asynergic name options for decisions that do not allow obtaining a regulatory effect from the funds invested in risk management. Among the most common reasons for such decisions are: delay in the execution of the decision, lack of necessary resources, lack of organization, motivation, conflicts generated by decisions, etc.

In terms of the importance of taking into account the time constraints on the development, adoption and execution of risk decisions, they distinguish real-time systems-such systems in which decisions are made and implemented quickly enough to control and manage the object, including in the event of emergency management situations, crisis decisions. This situation is most typical for the crop industry. Agriculture, in particular, when making decisions about the beginning of sowing and harvesting in the presence of appropriate natural conditions and resources.

It seems possible to single out “crisis solutions” from real-time solutions. Known translation of the word "crisis" as "the moment of decision-making."

A crisis decision is a decision taken at the moment corresponding to the moment of transition of the control object to the area of uncontrolled or unacceptable states.

Risk management takes a special place in investment decisions. The reasons for the need for economic investment are the renewal of the material and technical base, the increase in the volume of production activities, the development of new types of activities. For the Russian agro-industrial complex, the most important thing is to update and increase the material and technical base. According to the latest statistics, the availability of agricultural machinery per 100 hectares of sown area in Russia is 12-15 times lower than in Western European countries. The load on tractors and other equipment exceeds the standard. Thus, there is also the risk of a lack of technical means for harvesting and cultivating the soil.

To manage risks in the process of investment activities, diversification is often used - the distribution of investments, and therefore risks, between several objects, which are characterized by risks that are different in their physical nature and time. Spatial and temporal optimization of investment distribution is possible.

Spatial optimization of investment distribution is such an optimization in which the total amount of financial resources for a specific period is limited from above. There are several mutually independent investment projects, each of which is characterized by different in nature, intensity, time of manifestation of risks. Time optimization of investment allocation is such an optimization in which the total amount of financial resources available for financing in the planned year is limited from above. There are several independent investment projects available that cannot be implemented in the planned year at the same time. However, next year the remaining projects or their parts can be implemented. It is required to optimally distribute projects over the years, taking into account the efficiency of investments, available resources, average risks in time.

Investment decision-making, like any other type of management activity, is based on the use of various formalized and non-formalized methods.

Typical algorithms for risk decisions.

If the problem is well structured on the basis of subject and statistical information, then it is possible to use programmed solutions. Then the methodological features of various types of management are reflected in the development of algorithms for the preparation and adoption of risk decisions.

The development of special algorithms for making risk decisions can provide the required level of quality of organizational decisions, reduce the role of subjective factors. It is very important that this can speed up the risk management process.

Generally speaking, a specific decision-making algorithm can be developed for each of the typical risk problems for an organization. At the same time, it seems possible to develop an algorithm for making risk decisions for various types of management.

The algorithm for making risk decisions in traditional management may include the following operations:

Risk detection - problems;

Collection of information about the sources, characteristics of harmful factors, vulnerability of the risk object, generated by the impact of harmful factors, consequences and damages;

Display of this information in a form convenient for analysis;

Analysis of this information about the risks, vulnerability of the object, the possible severity of damage;

Determination of management objectives when solving a risk problem;

Identification of a risk problem with a previously existing one;

Study of the applied control techniques

risks and their consequences;

Choosing a course of action based on analogy and common sense;

The decision-making algorithm for systemic risk management may include the following operations:

Control and detection of risk problems;

Collection of information;

Analysis of information about risks in the system;

Investigation of the risk ratios of individual elements

Investigation of the ratios of risks of various physical

Investigation of the ratios of the frequency and severity of risks of individual elements;

Generation of a list of possible control actions in relation to each of the risks of each element of the system and a forecast of the effectiveness of these actions for a higher hierarchical level - the level of the system;

Evaluation and verification of solution options;

The decision-making algorithm for situational risk management may include the following operations:

Detection (control) of risk problems;

Collection of information about risks, harmful factors, vulnerability in a specific situation;

Display of information in a form convenient for analysis;

Analysis of information on the risks of the situation (sources, objects of risk; possible control actions; forecast of their

efficiency);

Diagnosing the problem and ranking the risks of the situation;

Determination of risk management objectives in a specific situation, taking into account the available resources;

Development of a criterion for assessing the effectiveness of risk management in a specific situation;

Verification and assessment of risk solution options;

Acceptance, registration, communication to performers, execution, control over the implementation of decisions.

Decision-making algorithm for social and ethical management The essence of this type of management is to prevent catastrophic impact on objects and subjects of management.

One of possible options such a special algorithm for making risk decisions includes:

Collection of information regarding: sources of risk, their physical nature, frequency, state and vulnerability of the control object, available control actions, parameters of inadmissible states of the control object;

Analysis of this information;

Diagnostics of the risk problem;

Determination of management objectives when solving a problem;

Development of a criterion for assessing a catastrophic (unacceptable) state;

Development of a criterion for assessing the effectiveness of risk management;

Generation of a list of possible risk management impacts;

Forecast of the consequences of each of the impacts managing the risk;

Assessment of whether the consequences are acceptable for each of the available impacts;

If the consequences of the risk management impact are not acceptable, then such impact is excluded from the set of considered;

If the consequences of a risk control action are recognized as acceptable, then it refers to the set of control actions under consideration;

The criterion of optimality of the decision on risk management is being developed;

Verification and evaluation of solution options;

From the set of considered solutions, the best is chosen in accordance with the adopted optimality criterion;

Make up the adopted decision;

Bring the decision made to the executors or the relevant governing bodies;

Execute the decision;

They control whether the parameters of the unacceptable states of the control object change, and if they change, then how critically;

If there is a critical change in the parameters of the unacceptable states of the object, then return to the implementation of item 1 of this algorithm.

Since moral and ethical (Japanese) management is applied in relation to personnel, the algorithm for making risk decisions in such management is not considered here.

The decision-making algorithm for stabilization risk management may include the following operations:

Risk problem detection;

Collection of information on changes in risk parameters;

Study of the dynamics of changes in the composition and values of the risk parameters of the control object;

Estimation of the time available to perform risk management operations (that is, the time during which the controlled object will still be in a controlled state with a probability of at least a specified one);

Distribution of time for the operations of preparation, adoption and execution of decisions in order to ensure the risk of the controlled object at an acceptable level with a probability not less than a given one;

System analysis of information about risks;

Diagnostics of the risk problem;

Determining the objectives of risk management in the decision

Problems;

Generation of a list of possible risk management impacts;

Forecast of the consequences (deterioration or improvement of the risk situation) during their application;

Determination of the rational intensity of risk management actions that ensure the desired trend of risk change;

Acceptance, registration, communication to performers, control of implementation and time of implementation of decisions.

Naturally, to solve specific problems using one or another type of management, these algorithms can change in accordance with the specifics of a specific problem.

Financial risk management.

Financial risk management takes a special place in risk management. First, this is due to the fact that any risk has financial implications. Secondly, it is important because the allocation of financial resources allows, and the amount of available financial resources significantly affects the choice of method and the effectiveness of risk management.

The central actor in risk management is the subjects of risk. Let us agree to call risk tech subjects who take the risk upon themselves and manage the change in the probability of risk realization or the amount of possible damage.

The selection of risk subjects and the formulation of their definitions are important because they determine the main goals and directions of research of their activities in conditions of risk.

The following risk subjects are distinguished:

ethnos - a set of people united by common properties, behavior, and conducting economic activities in a certain geographic area;

the elite of an ethnos is a part of an ethnos that makes managerial decisions on its behalf or otherwise influences its behavior;

the active part of the ethnos is that part of the ethnos that is able to influence the decisions made and the effectiveness of their implementation due to participation in the work of government bodies, economic activity, participation in public organizations;

an entrepreneur is a member of an ethnic group carrying out economic activity, who invests in his own business, managed by him directly (or with his participation), his own or borrowed capital, taking into account the results of the analysis and assessment of such parameters of the case as projected costs, income, liquidity, security ;

an investor invests in someone else's business, which he cannot or does not want to influence, his own or borrowed capital for a long period, guided by an assessment of such parameters of the case as projected costs, income, liquidity, security,

a strategic investor is an investor, owner of a large block of ordinary (voting) shares, who uses it to participate in the management of the issuer, to nominate their representatives to the board of directors. Its representatives on the board of directors participate and defend the interests of such an investor in the strategic, prospective, current, operational management of the issuer;

a speculator is a participant in market relations who, for a relatively short period, invests their own or borrowed funds in purchase and sale operations (thereby carrying out role-based insurance of price changes) of an asset. The speculator analyzes transactions with an assessment of the predicted parameters: costs, income, liquidity, security. The speculator is ready to take a certain increased risk for the sake of possible real gain. It uses a compensating (rewarding) risk function. As a result of a number of acts of sale and purchase committed over a certain period, the speculator basically has a certain profit; the player is the market participant who takes risks in conditions of a deliberately low probability of winning due to psychophysical character traits. The total final result of a number of acts of purchase and sale and other market actions made by the player over a certain period is usually a loss.

It should be noted that a manager is an employee who has subordinates and is empowered to make decisions in the agreed area. A manager can be a subject of risk to life, health, working capacity of employees subordinate to him and property risk to the enterprise.

The risk subject must synthesize possible options for action within the framework determined by financial and other branches of law.

It seems possible to argue that risk in management has three components:

1) an objective component, taking into account the field of activity, the position of the OPS in the market, etc .;

2) the methodological component of risk, determined by the goals and technologies of various types of management;

3) an individual component, determined by the psychophysical characteristics of a particular manager.

When embarking on the implementation of any production or commercial program, an entrepreneur or manager must assess the associated risks and choose the appropriate course of action for these risks. When making decisions, the manager should include the risk parameter in the rule for choosing the best course of action (that is, in the criterion).

Damage from financial risk can be reimbursed:

1) insurance in case of loss of profit (indirect losses);

2) insurance of non-payment (loan default);

3) warranty insurance.

It should be borne in mind that financial risk is equated with commercial. And for the insurance of commercial risks, it is characteristic that the insured event (non-receipt of the expected profit) takes place at the end of the insurance contract.

Hedging allows for the payment of risk and loss as commodities or financial instruments are sold in forward or futures contracts.

Marketing of financial instruments of risk management includes an algorithm for selecting such instruments (including insurance services and a specific insurer) to solve the problem of ensuring the continuity of the reproduction process or part of it being implemented by it.

In order to select one of the alternative instruments and options for action, the following financial risk management algorithm can be proposed:

1) formulate the goal of the action;

2) synthesize a criterion - a rule for choosing the best course of action from a number of possible ones;

3) analyze external environment in which the operation is carried out or the system operates to highlight possible sources of risk,

4) analyze the developed operation or system in order to highlight possible sources of risk

5) to analyze the external environment in which the operation is carried out or the system operates in order to identify objects that are vulnerable in relation to damaging factors that may arise during the implementation of risk sources;

6) assess the frequency of occurrence of a source of risk for individual elements of the system and (or) operation. Based on this information, compile a list of the most likely insured events (fire, theft, crop failure, death of livestock, etc.);

7) develop a forecast - to assess the likelihood of an insured event and the average possible damage for each of the insured events;

8) estimate the financial costs in order to prevent (exclude the possibility of realization or reduce the likelihood) the possibility of realizing the risk;

9) using the criterion, conduct a rational distribution and (or) optimize the distribution of financial resources between activities:

To eliminate the source of risk;

To reduce the risk by reducing the intensity of damaging factors or the vulnerability of objects that may be exposed to damaging factors;

To compensate for damage (consequences) of risk (In this case, an insurance contract is concluded. In the event of an insured event and damage, it is compensated for by the amounts received under the insurance.);

10) assess the level of safety and sufficiency measures taken... And if the inadequacy of measures to prevent and reduce risks is recognized, then to assess the available residual financial resources that can be directed to insurance;

11) if insurance turns out to be more expedient, then first it is necessary to assess the possibility of using non-fund insurance in the conditions of a specific operation.

12) otherwise (it is impossible to use non-fund insurance) to estimate the rational price of the insurance service . To do this, the policyholder must himself assess the possible damage from the realization of risk sources, taking into account the likelihood of the occurrence of the corresponding insured events.

13) choose an insurer - an insurance organization to conclude an insurance contract, taking into account the size of the insurer's equity capital, business reputation, service price, audit results of this insurance company for the previous period and all other available information.

The risk management process is a complex and multi-layered procedure. It can be conditionally divided into a number of stages in accordance with the specifics of the sequence of risk management actions. The allocation of such stages is conditional, because in practice they are often implemented simultaneously, rather than sequentially, one after another. The risk management scheme is shown in the figure.

The first stage - identification and analysis of risk - includes identifying risks, studying their specifics, highlighting the features of their implementation, and studying the amount of economic damage. Without such research, it is impossible to effectively and purposefully implement the risk management process.

Second stage - analysis alternative methods risk management. Its main goal is to study those tools that can be used to prevent the realization of the risk and the impact of its negative consequences.

Analysis of the main approaches to reducing the adverse impact of random events allows us to single out a number of general risk management procedures.

Among possible procedures should include the following:

risk aversion, i.e. a set of measures that make it possible to completely avoid the influence of adverse events;
risk reduction, i.e. actions to reduce adverse effects. This procedure assumes that a person leaves risks to his own responsibility, therefore it is sometimes called taking risks upon himself;
transfer of risk, i.e. a set of measures to shift the responsibility for reducing risk and damage to another entity.

The third stage - the choice of risk management methods - is designed to formulate a policy to deal with risk and uncertainty. The need for such a selection procedure is associated with different effectiveness of risk management methods and different amounts of resources required for their implementation.

The criteria for choosing a method can be different - financial and economic, i.e. addressing the issue in terms of costs and benefits; technical, which reflect the technological capabilities of risk reduction; social, the essence of which is to reduce risk to a level acceptable to society.

The fourth stage is the execution of the selected risk management method. The content of this stage consists in the execution of decisions made at the previous stage on the implementation of certain risk management methods. This assumes that private management and technical decisions are made and implemented as part of this process.

The fifth stage - monitoring results and improving the risk management system - ensures feedback on the specified system. This is very important stage, since it is he who provides the flexibility and adaptability of risk management, as well as the dynamic nature of this process.

At this stage, first of all, there is an update and replenishment of information about risks, which is important condition risk analysis at the first stage. More complete and up-to-date data enables adequate and timely risk management decisions.

On this basis, the effectiveness of the measures taken is assessed. The complexity of such an assessment lies in the fact that during the analyzed period the risks may not materialize. Therefore, it is often necessary to compare the actual cost of safety with the hypothetical loss.

The purpose of assessing the effectiveness of the measures taken is to adapt the risk management system to the changing conditions of the environment and the totality of risks affecting the population, the environment and society. This happens by replacing ineffective measures with more effective ones within the allocated budget for the risk management program, as well as by changing the organization of the risk management program.

Risk management techniques

Some of the most common risk management techniques are as follows.

Risk disclaimer

There are major risks that cannot be mitigated. But even if they can be partially reduced, this practically does not reduce the danger of the consequences of their implementation. That's why the best method protection against them may be an attempt to avoid all the possibilities of their occurrence altogether. An example of the application of this risk management method to individual level is a deliberate refusal of a person to jump with a parachute in view of the danger of this occupation.

Reducing the frequency of damage or avoiding loss

The essence of this method is to carry out preventive measures aimed at reducing the likelihood of an adverse event occurring.

Examples of specific interventions to reduce the likelihood of harm include the use of bodyguards, safety training for drivers, standardization of products and services, use of non-combustible materials in construction, training, chemical hazard posters, vaccinations, etc. etc.

The use of this method is justified in cases where the probability of risk occurrence is high enough.

Reducing the size of losses

Despite all efforts to mitigate risks, some losses usually do occur. For such risks, this method can be applied. Its essence is to carry out preventive measures aimed at reducing the amount of possible damage. Examples of preventive measures aimed at reducing the amount of possible damage are the installation of fire or security alarms, the use of non-combustible materials in construction, etc. The use of this method is justified in cases where the amount of possible damage is large.

Sharing risk (differentiation and duplication)

Its essence is to create a situation in which no one separate case realization of the risk does not lead to a series of new losses.

Practical use of this method of risk management at the firm level is possible in two forms:

a) differentiation (separation) of risks. This approach assumes spatial separation of sources of loss or objects that may be damaged.

An example of the separation of sources of loss is the allocation of different production sites (products are produced not in one large workshop, but in two smaller ones located at sites remote from each other), so that an accident that occurs at one site will not affect the occurrence of damage another.

An example of the separation of objects that may be damaged is the isolation of infectious patients in order to prevent the spread of an epidemic;

b) duplication of the most significant objects at risk. An example of such an object would be documentation or other information, and duplication as a risk management method would be the storage of copies of important documents in specially protected places.

Self-test questions

1. What is risk? Give a mathematical definition of risk.
2. How are risks classified?
3. List the main quantitative indicators of risk.
4. Describe the methods of risk analysis.
5. Describe the evolution of concepts of safety and risk.
6. Describe your risk management procedure.

8.2. Risk management process

Despite the presence a large number methods of influencing risks and tools that can be used in this case, in principle, four main decisions in this area can be distinguished. Within the framework of these decisions, variations in the choice of tools, the degree of impact, etc. are possible, but in principle, when analyzing risks, the manager must make an initial choice from these positions.

1. Risk avoidance - refusal to perform certain actions, decision-making, characterized by high risk.

2. Control and prevention of risk - own retention of risk with active influence on it by the company, aimed at reducing the likelihood of a risk event or reducing potential damage from the occurrence of a risk event.

3. Preservation of risk - used in cases where the level of risk is at a level acceptable to the company, and the impact on this risk is impossible or not economically effective.

4. Risk transfer - transfer of risk to third parties in cases where exposure to it by the company is impossible or not economically justified, and the level of risk exceeds the acceptable level for the company. Risk transfer is carried out through insurance, as well as financial markets, in hedging cases or through contractual clauses.

In addition to the methods of influencing risk in the work, possible instruments of influencing risks are analyzed, among which are:

1) administrative decisions - imply the company's impact on risk by regulating business processes within the company and making management decisions that would minimize the risk. Administrative decisions otherwise called "internal control";

2) financial decisions - decisions on risk transfer and risk financing, which include hedging with derivatives, insurance and self-insurance.

From the side of tactical management, success depends on the tools available to the manager in a specific economic, legal and organizational environment... The manager's arsenal can be represented by the following list:

1) risk prevention;

2) risk aversion;

3) impact on the source of risk;

4) reducing the time spent in hazardous areas;

5) conscious and unconscious acceptance of risk;

6) duplication of operations, objects or resources;

7) reducing risky behavior;

8) reduction of the amount of potential losses;

9) technical monitoring of the situation;

10) reduction of the amount of actual losses;

11) absorption of possible losses by income;

12) distribution of risk among different participants;

13) disaggregation of risk;

14) distribution of risks over time;

15) isolation of dangerous mutually reinforcing factors from each other;

16) insurance transfer (transfer) of risk;

17) non-insurance risk transfer;

18) reducing the duration of uncertainty;

19) reducing the likelihood of unwanted events;

20) financial instruments for hedging risks;

21) financial engineering;

22) innovation;

23) proactive methods.

Proactive methods, in turn, include:

- price regulation;

- value control financial leverage;

- limiting the level of risk;

- tax optimization;

- management of the amount of operating leverage;

- ensuring the possibility of obtaining an additional level of risk premium from the investment transaction contract;

- reduction of the list of force majeure circumstances in contracts with counterparties;

- ensuring compensation for possible financial losses due to the system of penalties included in the contracts;

- improvement of management working capital subject of the economy;

- information and forecast support of investment management (management);

- regulation of accounting and dividend policy;

- planning an optimally effective investment strategy and policy economic system;

- control over the degree of risk and correction of decisions on risk management (risk monitoring).

The manager's arsenal should be supplemented by a complex use or a partial combination of methods, mechanisms and tools for risk management of investment activities.

The interdependence of the economic system allows other agents to be involved in the risk management process, in particular, by transferring risk to them even before the event occurs. Risk transfer is the most reliable method of risk management from the point of view of both the economic entity and the economy as a whole, and is a method of neutralizing asset losses through the transfer of risk to partners in individual business transactions by concluding contracts.

Prevention of risks consists in an early study of each specific type of risk and taking measures to prevent the development of events leading to the realization of the threat and the occurrence of losses. Prevention of risks in the process of granting loans is of particular importance, and it is expressed in the preliminary examination of documents submitted by enterprises for obtaining loans.

Risk aversion means not “visiting” zones or engaging in activities where this type of risk operates on such a scale that the given subject of investment activity is not able to effectively cope with. This method is the most simple and radical. It consists in the development of measures that completely exclude a specific type of risk. Avoidance is calculated on giving up certain expectations, risky processes and shifting the risk onto others. In practice, it is most often realized in the form of a refusal of an economic entity to implement an innovative (venture) project, to carry out investment operations associated with high risk, to prefer less risky or almost risk-free projects, or to minimize risks (conservative management of assets and liabilities). These include:

- refusal to carry out investment operations, the level of risk for which is excessively high. Despite the high effectiveness of this measure, its use is limited;

- refusal to use in high volumes of borrowed capital. Decrease in the share of borrowed financial resources in economic turnover, it avoids one of the most significant risks - the loss of financial stability by an economic entity. At the same time, such risk avoidance entails a decrease in the effect of financial leverage, i.e. the possibility of obtaining an additional amount of profit on invested capital;

- refusal of excessive use current assets in low-liquid forms (for example, inventories). Increasing the level of liquidity of such assets allows avoiding the risk of insolvency of an economic entity in the future period. However, such risk avoidance deprives the economic entity of additional income from the expansion of sales of new products and services on credit and partially generates new risks associated with the disruption of the rhythm of the operational process due to a decrease in the size of insurance stocks of raw materials, materials, finished products;

- refusal to use temporarily free cash assets in short-term financial investments... This measure avoids the deposit and interest rate risk, but generates losses from inflation risk, as well as the risk of lost profits;

- rejection of unreliable partners.

Impact on a risk source consists in attempts to change the behavior of a risk source so as to reduce the threat posed by it. Reducing the time spent in hazardous areas can be achieved, for example, by setting restrictions, controlling access, accelerating investment transactions.

Acceptance of risk is an understanding and assessment of risk with the ensuing consequences in case of failure to take measures to protect against it, while at the same time refusing to manage risk. Organizations deliberately take on many of the regular small risks, periodically writing off losses. Such a policy is possible only in relation to risks, protection from which is more expensive than predictable losses. For such risks, the budgets are allocated normal reserves for losses. Duplicating an operation, object, or resource increases their reliability.

Reducing hazardous behavior as a risk management tool consists in fencing off dangerous areas, establishing mutual control over employee behavior, additional training and briefing of personnel, establishing fines and higher insurance rates for individuals and departments that repeatedly commit cost overruns and other losses.

Reducing the magnitude of potential losses consists in setting absolute limits on investment resources located in the zones high risk(for example, restrictions on capital investment in certain industries or regions), seeking to gradually reduce these limits to the minimum sufficient for the smooth and efficient work of the investor.

The system of approvals and permits in the decision-making process, in particular, is aimed at ensuring that each professional assesses the risk from his point of view and in accordance with the limits of financial responsibility. V general case the limits are set on the basis of the level of losses that the investor agrees to incur in connection with the realization of risks, and are calculated as the ratio of the volume of allowable losses and the likelihood of the risk being realized.

Technical monitoring of the situation contributes to the assessment and quick response on such technical risks as changes in technology, deterioration in the quality and productivity of production associated with the project, specific risks of the technology included in the investment project, errors in design and estimate documentation.

It is possible to influence the risk of investment activity by reducing the amount of actual losses, i.e. preparation for activities in cases where the danger has already materialized. Typically, losses do not occur all at once, but build up over a period of time. If commercial organization correctly responds to the first symptoms of the development of an undesirable process that entails losses, then these losses will be less than in the case of delays or wrong actions. Ideology situational management, regular and abnormal control schemes is quite suitable for developing rules of behavior in unfavorable situations.

Investors apply the principle of reducing the risks of investment activity by absorbing possible losses in incomes in conditions of high risks. It lies in the fact that each project in one area or industry must be accompanied by another project in another industry or area. Moreover, the growth and decline of these industries and spheres should coincide in time. This does not mean that recessions will always pay off income, the average profitability in a developing economy will grow. But the protection of the investor at the same time significantly increases.

Another method consists in the distribution of risks among several participants, the transition to joint financing of projects. This approach has been greatly developed abroad in recent years, when many companies and investor alliances have been created, which have brought them large profits in the field of risky investments. Investors' actions in the face of risk will be more effective and bring them success if they are actions of large alliances of investors. Risk distribution among different agents is expressed in procedural breakdown dangerous work for different performers, each of which has its own risk characteristics. As a result, some of these agents will be able to dodge their share of the risk and losses will be reduced. Reducing the degree of risk by distributing it among the participants (partners) or transferring part of the risk (for individual financial and other operations) to the participants (partners) of an innovative (venture) project can be achieved by concluding a multilateral agreement or a set of bilateral contracts regulating liability in case of project failure (indexing the cost of products and services; various forms insurance; property pledge; system of mutual penalties; provision of own guarantees and receipt of certain guarantees from counterparties related to neutralization of negative financial consequences in the event of a risk event). For example, by distributing the risk between the participants in an innovative (venture) project, an economic entity can transfer to contractors some of the risks associated with non-fulfillment calendar plan construction and installation works, low quality of work, theft of transferred building materials and some others. For an economic entity carrying out the transfer of such risks, their management consists in reworking work at the expense of the contractor, paying them penalties and fines and in other forms of compensation for losses incurred.

In modern practice of risk management, the following main directions of risk distribution (transfer of part of the risks to partners) have become widespread.

1. Distribution between the enterprise and suppliers of raw materials, materials and components of the risk (primarily financial) associated with the loss (damage) of property (assets) in the process of their transportation and loading and unloading operations. The forms of such distribution of risks are regulated by the relevant international rules "INCOTERMS-90".

2. Distribution of risk between participants in a leasing operation. So, in operating leasing, an economic entity will transfer to the lessor the risk of obsolescence of the used (leased) asset, the risk of losing technical productivity (subject to the established operating rules) and a number of other types of risks provided for by the relevant special clauses in the contract being concluded.

3. Distribution of risk (primarily credit) between the participants in the factoring (forfeiting) operation, which will be transferred to the relevant financial institution - commercial bank or a factoring company. This form of risk distribution is of a paid nature for an economic entity, however, it makes it possible to substantially neutralize negative financial consequences.

4. Qualitative distribution (transfer of part) of the risk. It implies making a decision by the participants of an innovative (venture) project, taking into account the organizational and technical potential of the subject of economic (entrepreneurial) activity and the forms of its presence in the market to expand (narrow) the number of potential investors (participants in the innovative project). By combining efforts in solving the problem of risk reduction, several economic entities can divide among themselves both possible profit and losses. As a rule, the search for partners is carried out among those economic entities that have additional financial resources, as well as information about the state and characteristics of the market. For this, joint stock companies, financial and industrial groups. The degree of risk distribution, and, consequently, the level of reduction of their negative financial consequences for the economic entity is the subject of contract negotiations with partners, reflected in the terms of the corresponding contracts agreed with them.

Risk disaggregation reduces the one-fold amount of risk and is achieved, for example, by issuing revolving loans.

The distribution of risks over time is due to the fact that several dangerous activities should not be carried out at the same time, otherwise the combination of several non-destructive dangers may exceed the financial critical mass of permissible losses and destroy the subject of investment activity.

Isolation of dangerous mutually reinforcing factors from each other is a continuation of the two previous methods. The fact is that some events occurring simultaneously tend to reinforce each other. For example, a decline in the reputation of the recipient investor can lead to a decrease in income and deterioration of service, which, in turn, further deteriorate the reputation of the recipient investor. The possibility of such “vicious” circles should be considered a particularly dangerous factor. When developing risk management programs, it is necessary to lay in the possibilities of breaking such circles in the event of unforeseen circumstances and isolating mutually initiating and mutually reinforcing undesirable processes both in space and in time, as well as in other significant organizational parameters.

Insurance risk transfer is that the risk compensation is transferred to the professional counterparty-insurer, with whom the insurance contract is concluded.

Non-insurance risk transfer differs from the insurance one in that the risks of the transaction are assumed not by the professional insurer, but by one of the partners. Risk transfer conditions are determined by the clauses to the contract.

Reducing the likelihood of undesirable events does not reduce the value possible losses, but their average over a period of time, because their frequency is decreasing. This is important as it allows the organization to reduce the corresponding reserves and transfer funds to more profitable assets. Reducing the duration of uncertainty implies a reduction in the time and stay in the zone of action of the risk, and the relevance of the risk. In other words, it is a decrease in the time of interaction with risk.

Buying financial instruments to hedge risks involves transactions with securities that rise or fall in price in opposite directions. This is a separate and very specific issue, although its importance and possibilities increase with the development of the stock market. In countries with a developed market economy and, accordingly, a developed market valuable papers a variety of hedging methods are extremely important.

At the end of the analysis of methods for influencing risks, we present a table of typical solutions for influencing separate groups risks (Table 8.1).

The final stage of the risk management process is to build a monitoring system for management efficiency and adjust policies and procedures based on the monitoring results.

Table 8.1Typical solutions for the impact on various categories of risks

The monitoring objectives are:

- control over execution the decision on the impact on the risk;

- control over changes in risk assessment and adjustment of methods of influencing the risk;

- control over changes in the external environment;

- control over the effectiveness of the process of influencing the risk (assessment of risk reduction and the effectiveness of its financing) and adjustment of the applied procedures and tools;

- identification of new risks.

An important factor in the effectiveness of the risk manager's activity is the confidence that the analytical results obtained are as accurate as possible. The correctness of any risk calculation depends on the assumptions and assumptions made in the model. The risk management system's ability to identify non-normal risk factor behaviors and align them with available historical data can significantly increase confidence in accuracy. analytical results... The best option would be a system that will select and optimize the most adequate model for a specific time series itself. So one can do the following conclusions and recommendations:

1) it is advisable to create a risk management service in the following composition: an information and analytical department, which includes a risk assessment subdivision, a prospective development subdivision; department of planning and risk management with subsections of preventive measures, self-insurance, insurance; control and monitoring department with subdivisions of control and monitoring of integral and residual risks of the organization;

2) the risk management service must be subordinate directly to the first head of the organization;

3) the risk management service (risk management service) should be supplemented with divisional and adaptive organizational structures groups of risk managers - supervisors of departments and groups of methodological support who make the necessary calculations or detailed research. This structure becomes more efficient because external Relations(risk management service - a subdivision of the organization) are replaced by actually internal (direct communication between employees of the organization).

The dynamism of the variability of the conditions in which firms operate opens up many opportunities for them, but at the same time causes a number of complex and varied problems that cannot be solved with traditional approaches to the management of economic and investment activities. Consequently, organizations, in order to survive in a market environment, withstand competition and contribute to economic growth, need to learn how to manage economic and investment activities in conditions of uncertainty, to look for new opportunities to increase the efficiency of information, material and financial resources.

The management of economic and investment activities of firms in conditions of uncertainty should be carried out as a multi-criteria choice from a number of alternatives, corresponding to the requirement of assurance or security. The guaranteed result in this case assumes that the adopted decision will not be worse than the specified one in one parameter, and the protected one assumes that the adopted decision will not be worse than the one specified in all the given parameters.

During the preparation of the risk management operation, the following main tasks are solved:

- are revealed (identified) possible conditions conducting business and investment activities;

- planning of activities is carried out in conditions of uncertainty of the environment (in particular, a forecast of the occurrence of certain risks at various stages of operating activities, investment lending is carried out);

- methods for managing economic and investment activities are being developed that meet the selected criteria;

- personnel are trained (a group of risk managers) capable of implementing investment risk management technologies in an uncertain environment;

- all tasks related to risk management of economic and investment activities are being solved. These are, first of all, the issues of assessing and reducing the costs of implementing certain risk management methods and comparing them with the losses that the subject of investment activity may incur if it is exposed to the risks under consideration. These are also issues of optimization of information, financial, material and other flows in the risk management system;

- a mechanism for monitoring the functioning of the risk management system is being developed and measures are being taken to ensure the required reliability of this system (a kind of risk-risk management system is being created).

At the stage of the operation of managing investment activities in conditions of uncertainty, the following main tasks are solved:

- methods are implemented that must be applied before starting investment activities;

- according to the selected criteria, the effectiveness of investment management under conditions of uncertainty is assessed;

- if necessary, additional (developed on preparatory stage operations) technology;

- New technologies are quickly developed and applied, depending on the situation in the markets;

- mechanisms for financing newly developed and used anti-risk technologies are determined;

- failures in the mechanism of risk management of the subject of investment activity are identified and eliminated (the risk-risk management system is working), etc.

Management of investment activities under conditions of uncertainty is the process of identifying the level of deviations in the predicted result, making and implementing management decisions, which allows to prevent or reduce the negative impact on the process and results of reproduction of random factors, while ensuring high level income.

In general, the risk management system for investment activities should be built on the basis of a recurrent approach, i.e. be capable of constant modification using a set of control methods at all stages of adequately incoming information flows, i.e. be adaptive to environmental changes.

It follows that the system should provide for a block for the development and optimization of methods for managing investment activities, determined by the characteristics of the information environment, which may include:

- management based on control, assuming that the future is a repetition of the past, which provides, even within the framework of the implementation of an investment project, the possibility of some regulation of activities through the creation of a number of instructions and stationary procedures;

- management based on extrapolation, which assumes that for a number of parameters the past serves as the basis for determining the trend of future development;

- management based on the anticipation of changes, assuming that on the basis of this prediction, trends of future development can be assumed;

- management based on "flexible emergency decisions", which presupposes the presence of recurrence as the main quality of the system for managing the investment activities of economic systems under conditions of uncertainty.

The system for managing the investment activity of economic systems in conditions of uncertainty includes the process of developing the goal of investment activity, determining the likelihood of an event, identifying the degree and magnitude of risk, analyzing the environment, choosing a risk management strategy, choosing the necessary risk management techniques and ways to reduce it (risk management techniques), the implementation of a targeted impact on risk.

The first step is to determine the purpose of investment activities. The purpose of capital investment is to obtain the maximum result. Any of this action is associated with risk, and it is always purposeful, since the absence of a goal makes a decision associated with risk meaningless. In this regard, the goals of risk and risky capital investment should be clear, specific and comparable to risk and capital. That is why risk management of investment activities includes the strategy and tactics of risk management . The strategy is based on long-term goals and assessments of the uncertainty of the economic situation, on effective methods achieving these goals over an extended period of time. This allows you to choose the right strategy and methods for managing investment activities and their implementation, as well as methods for approximating actual results to predicted ones (Fig. 8.1).

Rice. 8.1. A model for managing the investment activity of an economic system under conditions of uncertainty

The presented model for managing the economic and investment activities of the economic system in conditions of uncertainty allows us to consider the relationship between economic resources, the structure of the risk management system, effective economic development the subject of investment activity.

The essence of management of economic and investment activities in conditions of uncertainty is the rational organization in space and time of information, material and financial flows, providing the best possible orientation of the organization to achieve a balance between the benefits of optimizing risk management, the costs necessary for this and comparing them with the increase in value organizations.

One of essential functions management - creating the conditions necessary for the further successful functioning of the enterprise. That is why at the enterprises of Western countries the main principle and guideline of management is not profit maximization, but successful management of risk situations, which in the long term ensures the greatest financial stability of entrepreneurial firms.

Risk management Is the science and art of investment risk management, based on long-term forecasting, strategic planning, development of a sound concept and a program adapted to the uncertainty of the entrepreneurship system, which makes it possible to prevent or reduce the adverse impact on the results of reproduction of stochastic factors and, most importantly, to ultimately obtain a high income.

Strategy predetermines tactics, i.e. a set of methods, techniques used in specific conditions this investment situation in order to achieve the set goals that do not contradict long-term goals. An important point in the organization of management of investment activities in conditions of uncertainty is to obtain information about environment, which is necessary to make a decision in favor of a particular action. Based on the analysis of such information and taking into account the risk goals, it is possible to correctly determine the probability of an event, including an insured event, identify the degree of risk and assess its cost.

Based on available information on environment, on the likelihood, degree and magnitude of risk, various options for risky capital investment are developed and an assessment of their optimality is provided by comparing the expected profit and the amount of risk. In the process of developing a strategy for managing investment activities under conditions of uncertainty, it is necessary:

- determine the maximum allowable level for each a separate kind risks;

- to identify the restrictions (limits) that the subject of investment activity must comply with in the course of its activities, so that the level of risk of its operations does not exceed the permissible;

- to develop a mechanism for managing the organization that would ensure constant control over the current level of risks of investment activities, compliance with limits and their adequacy to the current situation;

- outline a plan of measures that the subject of investment activity must carry out to neutralize the consequences during implementation different types risks in force majeure.

8.2. Risk management process

Despite the existence of a large number of methods of influencing risks and tools that can be used in this case, in principle, four main decisions in this area can be distinguished. Within the framework of these decisions, variations in the choice of tools, the degree of impact, etc. are possible, but in principle, when analyzing risks, the manager must make an initial choice from these positions.

1. Risk avoidance - refusal to perform certain actions, decision-making, characterized by high risk.

3. Preservation of risk - used in cases where the level of risk is at a level acceptable to the company, and the impact on this risk is impossible or not economically effective.

In addition to the methods of influencing risk in the work, possible instruments of influencing risks are analyzed, among which are:

2) financial decisions - decisions on risk transfer and risk financing, which include hedging with derivatives, insurance and self-insurance.

From the side of tactical management, success depends on the tools available to the manager in a specific economic, legal and organizational environment. The manager's arsenal can be represented by the following list:

1) risk prevention;

2) risk aversion;

3) impact on the source of risk;

4) reducing the time spent in hazardous areas;

5) conscious and unconscious acceptance of risk;

6) duplication of operations, objects or resources;

7) reducing risky behavior;

8) reduction of the amount of potential losses;

9) technical monitoring of the situation;

10) reduction of the amount of actual losses;

11) absorption of possible losses by income;

12) distribution of risk among different participants;

13) disaggregation of risk;

14) distribution of risks over time;

15) isolation of dangerous mutually reinforcing factors from each other;

16) insurance transfer (transfer) of risk;

17) non-insurance risk transfer;

18) reducing the duration of uncertainty;

19) reducing the likelihood of unwanted events;

20) financial instruments for hedging risks;

21) financial engineering;

22) innovation;

23) proactive methods.

Proactive methods, in turn, include:

- price regulation;

- management of the amount of financial leverage;

- limiting the level of risk;

- tax optimization;

- management of the amount of operating leverage;

- ensuring the possibility of obtaining an additional level of risk premium from the investment transaction contract;

- reduction of the list of force majeure circumstances in contracts with counterparties;

- ensuring compensation for possible financial losses due to the system of penalties included in the contracts;

- improving the management of circulating assets of an economic entity;

- information and forecast support of investment management (management);

- regulation of accounting and dividend policy;

- planning an optimally effective investment strategy and policy of the economic system;

- control over the degree of risk and correction of decisions on risk management (risk monitoring).

The manager's arsenal should be supplemented by a complex use or a partial combination of methods, mechanisms and tools for risk management of investment activities.

Risk aversion means not “visiting” zones or engaging in activities where this type of risk operates on such a scale that the given subject of investment activity is not able to effectively cope with. This method is the simplest and most radical. It consists in the development of measures that completely exclude a specific type of risk. Avoidance is calculated on giving up certain expectations, risky processes and shifting the risk onto others. In practice, it is most often realized in the form of a refusal of an economic entity to implement an innovative (venture) project, to carry out investment operations associated with high risk, to prefer less risky or almost risk-free projects, or to minimize risks (conservative management of assets and liabilities). These include:

- refusal to carry out investment operations, the level of risk for which is excessively high. Despite the high effectiveness of this measure, its use is limited;

- refusal to use in high volumes of borrowed capital. Reducing the share of borrowed funds in the economic turnover avoids one of the most significant risks - the loss of financial stability by an economic entity. At the same time, such risk avoidance entails a decrease in the effect of financial leverage, i.e. the possibility of obtaining an additional amount of profit on invested capital;

- refusal from excessive use of current assets in low-liquid forms (for example, inventories). Increasing the level of liquidity of such assets allows avoiding the risk of insolvency of an economic entity in the future period. However, such risk avoidance deprives the economic entity of additional income from the expansion of sales of new products and services on credit and partially generates new risks associated with the disruption of the rhythm of the operational process due to a decrease in the size of insurance stocks of raw materials, materials, finished products;

- refusal to use temporarily free monetary assets in short-term financial investments. This measure avoids the deposit and interest rate risk, but generates losses from inflation risk, as well as the risk of lost profits;

- rejection of unreliable partners.

Reducing the amount of potential losses consists in setting absolute limits on investment resources located in high-risk areas (for example, restrictions on capital investment in certain industries or regions), trying to gradually reduce these limits to the minimum sufficient for the smooth and efficient work of the investor.

The system of approvals and permits in the decision-making process, in particular, is aimed at ensuring that each professional assesses the risk from his point of view and in accordance with the limits of financial responsibility. In general, the limits are set on the basis of the level of losses that the investor agrees to incur in connection with the realization of risks, and are calculated as the ratio of the volume of allowable losses and the probability of risk materialization.

Technical monitoring of the situation contributes to the assessment and quick response to such technical risks as changes in technology, deterioration in the quality and productivity of production associated with the project, specific risks of the technology included in the investment project, errors in design estimates.

It is possible to influence the risk of investment activity by reducing the amount of actual losses, i.e. preparation for activities in cases where the danger has already materialized. Typically, losses do not occur all at once, but build up over a period of time. If a commercial organization correctly responds to the first symptoms of the development of an undesirable process that entails losses, then these losses will be less than in the case of delays or incorrect actions. The ideology of situational management, regular and non-standard control schemes is quite suitable for developing rules of behavior in adverse situations.

Another method consists in the distribution of risks among several participants, the transition to joint financing of projects. This approach has been greatly developed abroad in recent years, when many companies and investor alliances have been created, which have brought them large profits in the field of risky investments. Investors' actions in the face of risk will be more effective and bring them success if they are actions of large alliances of investors. The distribution of risk among different agents is expressed in the procedural division of hazardous work by different performers, each of which has its own risk characteristics. As a result, some of these agents will be able to dodge their share of the risk and losses will be reduced. Reducing the degree of risk by distributing it among the participants (partners) or transferring part of the risk (for individual financial and other operations) to the participants (partners) of an innovative (venture) project can be achieved by concluding a multilateral agreement or a set of bilateral contracts regulating liability in case of project failure (indexing the cost of products and services; various forms of insurance; property pledge; system of mutual penalties; providing own and receiving certain guarantees from counterparties related to neutralizing negative financial consequences in the event of a risk event). For example, by distributing the risk between the participants in an innovative (venture) project, an economic entity can transfer to contractors some of the risks associated with non-fulfillment of the schedule of construction and installation works, poor quality of work, theft of construction materials transferred to them, and some others. For an economic entity carrying out the transfer of such risks, their management consists in reworking work at the expense of the contractor, paying them penalties and fines and in other forms of compensation for losses incurred.

In modern practice of risk management, the following main directions of risk distribution (transfer of part of the risks to partners) have become widespread.

3. Distribution of risk (primarily credit) between the participants in the factoring (forfeiting) operation, which will be transferred to the appropriate financial institution - a commercial bank or factoring company. This form of risk distribution is of a paid nature for an economic entity, however, it makes it possible to substantially neutralize negative financial consequences.

4. Qualitative distribution (transfer of part) of the risk. It implies making a decision by the participants of an innovative (venture) project, taking into account the organizational and technical potential of the subject of economic (entrepreneurial) activity and the forms of its presence in the market to expand (narrow) the number of potential investors (participants in the innovative project). By combining efforts in solving the problem of reducing risks, several economic entities can share among themselves both possible profits and losses. As a rule, the search for partners is carried out among those economic entities that have additional financial resources, as well as information about the state and characteristics of the market. For this, joint-stock companies, financial and industrial groups can be created. The degree of risk distribution, and, consequently, the level of reduction of their negative financial consequences for the economic entity is the subject of contract negotiations with partners, reflected in the terms of the corresponding contracts agreed with them.

Risk disaggregation reduces the one-fold amount of risk and is achieved, for example, by issuing revolving loans.

Insurance risk transfer is that the risk compensation is transferred to the professional counterparty-insurer, with whom the insurance contract is concluded.

Reducing the likelihood of undesirable events does not reduce the amount of possible losses, but their average value over a period of time, because their frequency decreases. This is important as it allows the organization to reduce the corresponding reserves and transfer funds to more profitable assets. Reducing the duration of uncertainty implies a reduction in the time and stay in the zone of action of the risk, and the relevance of the risk. In other words, it is a decrease in the time of interaction with risk.

Buying financial instruments to hedge risks involves transactions with securities that rise or fall in price in opposite directions. This is a separate and very specific issue, although its importance and possibilities increase with the development of the stock market. In countries with developed market economies and, accordingly, a developed securities market, various hedging methods are extremely important.

At the end of the analysis of methods for influencing risks, we present a table of typical solutions for influencing individual risk groups (Table 8.1).

The final stage of the risk management process is to build a monitoring system for management efficiency and adjust policies and procedures based on the monitoring results.

Table 8.1Typical solutions for the impact on various categories of risks

The monitoring objectives are:

- control over the implementation of the decision on the impact on the risk;

- control over changes in risk assessment and adjustment of methods of influencing the risk;

- control over changes in the external environment;

- control over the effectiveness of the process of influencing the risk (assessment of risk reduction and the effectiveness of its financing) and adjustment of the applied procedures and tools;

- identification of new risks.

An important factor in the effectiveness of the risk manager's activity is the confidence that the analytical results obtained are as accurate as possible. The correctness of any risk calculation depends on the assumptions and assumptions made in the model. The risk management system's ability to identify non-normal risk factor behaviors and align them with available historical data can significantly increase confidence in the accuracy of analytical results. The best option would be a system that will select and optimize the most adequate model for a specific time series itself. Thus, the following conclusions and recommendations can be made:

2) the risk management service must be subordinate directly to the first head of the organization;

3) the risk management service (risk management service) should be supplemented with divisional and adaptive organizational structures by groups of risk managers - supervisors of departments and methodological support groups who make the necessary calculations or detailed studies. Such a structure becomes more efficient because external relations (risk management service - a division of the organization) are replaced by actually internal ones (direct communication between employees of the organization).